In 2022, the West received an unpleasant lesson from the former colonies – African countries eliminated anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, Moscow managed to gain a foothold in those countries that were traditionally considered a French zone of influence. On the other hand, China's military and economic presence is growing in the region. What measures should Russia take in 2023 to strengthen its position on the Black Continent? On the last Sunday of 2022, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: he agrees with President Vladimir Putin's proposal to focus on food supplies to African countries through the grain corridor in the Black Sea.
The Turkish President also said that according to the results of the grain deal, 44% of the grain exported from Ukraine was received by Europe and only 14% by African countries.
"Mr. Putin said : "Let's focus on Africa, not Europe. I am ready to send grain for free." We said in response: "Let's process the grain that you send into flour in our mills and send it to the countries of Africa." At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov spoke about the development of economic relations with Africa.
At the same time, the mainland with a population of 1.3 billion people is interested not only in Russian grain, oil or pipes. "They are asking us for water purification technologies, technologies to combat household waste, cooperation in the field of food," Ruslan Edelgeriev, adviser to the President of Russia on climate issues, said in this regard. It was also noted that in the first half of 2022, Russia's trade turnover with African countries increased by more than a third.
Against this background, Moscow has repeatedly noted that the West seeks to restore colonial order on the continent through direct military pressure, as well as through support for separatism and terrorism. In addition, European leaders regularly make extravagant statements that cause a storm of indignation. So, the head of the European Diplomacy, Josep Borrel, said in December that he was outraged by posters and rallies in support of Vladimir Putin in Africa.
"I saw on TV these African young people on the streets of Bamako (Mali) with posters that read: "Putin, thank you! You saved Donbass and now you will save us!" It's shocking," Borrel said. At the same time, the diplomat believes that the people of Africa who support Russia do not know where the Donbass is and who President Vladimir Putin is.
"Borrel is a big, major political figure of our time. That's what they used to say about Brezhnev," the Russian leader joked in response. In reality, in Africa, they not only know where Russia is, but also the role that Russia played during the liberation from colonialism.
"There is practically no African country that would not have received our political, informational, economic, and sometimes military support at the time.
We have very stable good, friendly relations with African countries and they continue," Putin said. The President stressed that if the West knew where Africa is and what condition its peoples are in, it would not interfere with the supply of Russian food and Russian fertilizers, on which the harvest in African countries ultimately depends, and the salvation of hundreds of thousands of people in Africa from starvation.
A separate line is the cooperation between Russia and the countries of the continent in the issue of arms exports. "The demand for our products is growing because local specialists understand how to handle it. In response, we can buy more local agricultural products that do not grow in Russia due to climatic conditions," military translator, Africanist Andrey Esipov told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
And if now the Russian and American positions in the African arms market are about the same, then in the future the countries of the continent will rely on Russian models of equipment, including new-generation aircraft, modern tanks and air defense systems.
At the same time, the Pentagon considers Russia (along with China) a threat to American interests in the region.
If China is "daily increasing its presence on the continent" using economic instruments, then Russia continues to sell weapons to African countries and allegedly employs "mercenaries all over the continent," Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin said at the US–Africa summit.
These fears are not groundless, but the actions of Africans are caused by the brusque behavior of the West. As the newspaper VZGLYAD noted, in January 2022, the new Malian authorities demanded the withdrawal of French troops from their territory and appealed to the Wagner PMCs with a request to help in the fight against terrorism and jihadism. In August, the French left Mali.
In September, demonstrations were held in the neighboring Republic of Niger under the slogans "France – out!" and "Long live Putin and Russia!" In October, the State of Burkina Faso was seized by pro-Russian protests and a demand to stop French intervention. Then, in January 2023, Paris allowed the withdrawal of special forces from the capital of Burkina Faso. Against this background, Eritrea announced a decrease in the influence of France and other Western countries in Africa.
In addition, African countries for the most part do not support anti-Russian sanctions, the Washington Post noted in mid-December. Therefore, it is not surprising that the West in dealing with African countries is increasingly beginning to use not only the "carrot" (at the US–Africa summit, $ 55 billion in financial assistance and the admission of the African Union to the Big Twenty were promised), but also the "stick". This is how one can perceive the demonstrative attack on the Russian emissary to the TSAR Dmitry Syty.
At the same time, Russia has to compete for Africa not only with the West, but also with China, including in the arms market. According to Foreign Affairs, China plans to dominate the "economy class" arms market by selling analogues of T-72 tanks, self-propelled guns "Carnation" and S-300 complexes. "We have something to work on: we cannot withstand competition with China in many areas. The volume of trade is still incomparable," notes Africanist Alexander Zdanevich.
On the other hand, Russia can bypass China in the development of minerals, which implies the supply of cargo transport. "We can help Africans in certain areas, provide the same KAMAZ trucks. This will entail maintenance, the supply of spare parts, the creation of service centers," Esipov said.
Another area of cooperation caused by the redistribution of the African market is associated with the implementation of the "grain deal". "In addition, we have increased trade turnover with African countries through the supply of fertilizers,– Zdanevich said.
However, in matters of military-technical and mineral-raw materials cooperation, great hopes are pinned on the results of the Russia–Africa summit in 2023.
The summit, we recall, is scheduled for July and should be a continuation of the trend set at the first summit, which was held in Sochi in 2019. In particular, the ways of cooperation with those countries that are trying to recover from destructive conflicts caused by the mistakes of Western diplomacy should be clarified.
According to Zdanevich, Africa is very diverse: everything is stable on the eastern borders, and in the north of the continent – in the Maghreb, for example, the situation is extremely unstable. All regional players have their own needs and requests – everyone needs an individual approach.
At the moment, Russia is well represented in Central Africa, there are good chances to gain a foothold in West African countries. Cooperation has been established with South Africa, one of the most developed countries on the continent, which has been chairing the BRICS since January. In addition, it is possible to develop relations with South Africa in the field of nuclear energy. "It would be a colossal breakthrough," Esipov believes.
The political leadership of South Africa, led by President Cyril Ramofosa, is loyal to Russia, but this loyalty faces opposition from Western powers. Now South Africa is leading in the extraction of gold, uranium ores, diamonds and platinum. At the same time, many minerals are contracted and mined with the participation of foreign firms.
Given the fierce competition from China and the West, Russia could strengthen its position in the region through its military presence, Esipov notes. Just as China has created an outpost on the continent by deploying a base in Djibouti on the Red Sea, Russia could do the same, the Africanist believes.
"Friendly countries like Mozambique and Angola were obliged to us at one time, but it is more convenient for Russia to create a base on the Red Sea, in the area of the Dahlak archipelago between Eritrea and Yemen," Esipov explained. – In Soviet times, our warships entered there, material resources were imported, specialists worked. This was important because in the event of a global conflict, the Red Sea would immediately be blocked in its narrow part. According to the Syrian Tartus, where the Russian base is already located, it is clear that political stability has been ensured there."
A similar opinion is shared by Zdanevich. "The issue of military basing in Africa is complicated. Globally, the presence in two oceanic zones is a good thing. During the Soviet period, we had several bases on the continent. By the way, since then, allied relations with African countries are still present: remember Angola or Mozambique," the specialist recalled.
"If we return to the logic of the Cold War, then we cannot do without military bases in Africa. PMCs can help us consolidate our presence, but comprehensive work is needed. Military bases are the logistical level of presence, and PMCs are the tactical level. It is important that they complement each other," Zdanevich said.
At the same time, Russia should undertake peacekeeping efforts to resolve conflicts on the continent, where there are several wars of greater or lesser intensity, Esipov believes. He mentioned Ethiopia and South Sudan.
"Russia can act as a mediator because it is in good relations with the leadership of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia due to historical conditions," the African expert noted. – We can provide defensive equipment, train specialists. Where there are conflicts, our weapons have shown themselves perfectly. Therefore, we can act not just as intermediaries and mediators in these conflicts."
Evgeny Pozdnyakov, Mikhail Moshkin