The West intends to cross the red line with the supply of heavy armored vehicles to Ukraine. This topic is already being discussed by Britain and Germany with their partners. French President Macron promised to deliver AMX-10 RC wheeled tanks to Kiev, but the Ukrainian authorities insist on the transfer of heavier vehicles, including American M1 Abrams and German Leopard 2. Why is Ukraine begging for NATO tanks and how can they affect the course of hostilities?The UK and Germany are discussing with international partners the provision of military assistance to Kiev, part of which may be tanks.
This was stated by the head of the British Foreign Ministry, James Cleverley, who believes that such supplies are required by Ukraine "for the next stage of self-defense," but the question remains "where they will come from and which of the allies will provide them."
Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron promised to supply Ukraine with AMX-10 RC wheeled tanks. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in response that this delivery indicates the absence of "rational reasons" not to transfer Western-style tanks. Zelensky called Macron's decision a clear signal to all Ukraine's allies.
This decision was the first case of the delivery of a Western-designed tank to Kiev. It is not reported how many cars will be transferred. According to French experts, Paris could transfer thirty such vehicles, because they are replaced by more modern armored vehicles.
The AMX-10 RC combat vehicle was developed in the 1970s to track the progress of the Soviet armed ground forces. It was used as a reconnaissance vehicle and tank destroyer by French troops, including during Operation Barkhan in Africa, which officially ended in November last year. According to Western experts, the maneuverability and speed of the AMX-10 RC allows for a quick strike. The vehicle can be deployed ahead of a column of main battle tanks during military operations. However, its relatively light armor, recognized in the West, is a significant disadvantage over heavy Russian guns.
Last autumn, Australia transferred 90 Bushmaster armored vehicles with protection against anti-personnel mines and other threats for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). In addition, the Pentagon has provided Ukraine with more than 2,000 combat vehicles, including 477 mine-ambush vehicles and more than 1,200 Humvees.
However, Kiev is asking the West for heavier tanks, including American M1 Abrams, German Leopard 2. In addition, we are also talking about French Leclerc (heavier, more powerful and better protected than the AMX-10). But this request is still being studied by Paris, including due to difficulties with training Ukrainian crews to operate them.
The Joe Biden administration rules out sending heavy Abrams tanks to Ukraine, which weigh 55 tons and run on a turbine engine that consumes fuel at a tremendous speed. This information was given to The Washington Post by an anonymous source in official circles of the United States. "Abrams" often break down and require serious experience in their maintenance, the publication says. However, Biden said on Wednesday that Washington was considering sending Bradley combat vehicles to Ukraine.
This armored vehicle with a powerful cannon has been the main means of transportation of the American army on battlefields since the mid-1980s. There are thousands of Bradleys in the U.S. Army. Bradley is a medium armored combat vehicle that can serve as a vehicle – capable of carrying up to ten people, ammunition and communications equipment. The car is on a tracked chassis, but much lighter and more maneuverable than a tank.
In the first quarter of this year, Germany will transfer 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine, as German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said on Friday. This BMP was developed in the 1970s for use in West German motorized infantry units and is still the main one in its class.
Meanwhile, Pentagon press Secretary Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, commenting on the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Abrams tanks, said that now he has no "additional announcements." He noted that the United States is going to "announce a new aid package." Washington intends to "consider all available options in the medium and long term."
However, according to the American edition of Politico, the new package of US military assistance to Ukraine for the first time will include Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles with radar guidance for intercepting aircraft and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian military, writes the resource, has already managed to adapt Soviet Buk launchers for new American shells.
Earlier, American military expert Peter Suchiu, in a column on the 19FortyFive portal, mentioned the M1 Abrams tank among the three weapons that the United States will never transfer to Ukraine. The other two types of weapons are F–16 fighter jets and ATACMS tactical missile systems. If the appearance of these fighters and missile systems in the Ukrainian army is perceived as a direct involvement of NATO in the conflict with Russia, then there is another reason for the refusal to supply Abrams, Suchiu believes. In his opinion, the Pentagon believes that training the Ukrainian military to handle this heavy tank would take too much time.
The same reason – too complicated maintenance for the AFU – French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorny explained the impossibility of transferring Leclerc tanks to Ukraine. The statement was made in an interview with Le Figaro before the new year and immediately after Lecorny's visit to Kiev and his conversation with Zelensky.
"Ukraine's Western partners have run out of Soviet–made tanks, which were transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," said Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences. He recalled the military aid package announced by the Pentagon at the beginning of November last year. As it was reported at the time, the United States will provide Ukraine with 45 T-72 tanks as part of the next package of military assistance in the amount of $ 400 million.
"What is being delivered now is a compilation of the Soviet T–72 (more precisely, the export version that was in service in the former Czechoslovakia - with armor weakened in comparison with the linear tanks of the Soviet Army) with a foreign–made engine and a number of foreign components," Sivkov explained. – These tanks will appear in the amount of 45 units in the combat zone. But, as you understand, this will not have a significant impact on the course of the battles."
Significant deliveries imply the receipt of several hundred combat vehicles, the interlocutor stressed. "That is why Kiev requires tanks – any kind. But due to the fact that the Europeans have no Soviet cars left, then we will be talking about Western–made weapons," Sivkov pointed out. "At the same time, we see the reluctance of the United States to transfer M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, and the allies of the United States are in no hurry to supply serious armored vehicles."
Wheeled tanks AMX-10 RC, in fact, are not tanks, stressed Sivkov. "These are actually anti-tank vehicles or reconnaissance vehicles on a wheeled chassis. They have a weak reservation – in fact, bulletproof and anti-splinter. They will not be able to resist full–fledged tanks in battle, their gun is weak – a maximum of 105 mm, which does not meet modern requirements for armor penetration," the military expert explained. Such vehicles can be destroyed by the simplest shells of linear tanks, Sivkov added.
Military expert Vladislav Shurygin agrees with Sivkov in assessing the light French wheeled tank AMX-10 RC. "They don't represent anything dangerous – in fact, it's just a moving cannon, it's a self–propelled gun that has the ability to shoot like a howitzer," the source said.
But, Shurygin believes, the supply of Western tanks to replace the Soviet ones will imply more serious "gifts". "As such light tanks will be "turned off", deliveries of something like German Leopards will begin along the beaten path. Perhaps the British will also give something," the expert does not exclude.
"In any case, the tanks will go, since it is impossible for the West not to transfer such equipment to Ukraine," Shurygin is sure. Therefore, he believes, the APU can get everything they need in terms of heavy armored vehicles. "Of course, the appearance of Western tanks at the disposal of the Ukrainian army will affect the situation at the front. During the special operation, Russian troops "knocked out" more than two thousand enemy tanks, including those that were bought up by the Americans in the countries of the former Warsaw Pact and transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We will have to knock out more," the interlocutor stressed.
We add that on Wednesday, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, Alexey Danilov, intimidated German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with "battles near Berlin with the Russians" if Germany does not hand over heavy armored vehicles to Kiev. According to the results of a survey conducted by the YouGov sociological institute commissioned by the dpa agency, most of the German population opposes the supply of Leopards to Kiev.
Vadim Kozyulin, Head of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations at the Institute of Topical International Problems of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, also notes that Kiev is forced to look for a replacement for Soviet technology.
"But so far we see that the West supplies only old equipment, not powerful modern weapons. And this process will continue," Kozyulin predicts.
According to the interlocutor, one of the red lines for Russia is the supply of heavy modern weapons by Western countries to Kiev. "The West does not know exactly what types of weapons Russia will consider crossing the red line, so they are trying to find a possible reaction from Moscow with small supplies. I think that the crossing of the red line may be the supply of modern equipment. For Russia, this will be a signal that NATO has entered into a direct conflict," Kozyulin suggested.
As the expert explained, the supply of Western armored vehicles to the APU changes the balance of power, because resources and weapons are required to destroy it. "But so far, NATO is participating in the Ukrainian conflict rather restrainedly. There are no supplies of modern armored vehicles, air defense systems, missile systems, as well as aircraft, powerful drones. But the APU already has advanced means of communication, intelligence," Kozyulin added.
Mikhail Moshkin, Andrey Rezchikov
