The conflict in Ukraine helps the German military-industrial complex to get out of the crisisThe Bundeswehr was considered an effective military machine and the military backbone of the conventional NATO forces, but after more than thirty years of underfunding and cuts, it lost its combat capability.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian conflict gave a tangible impetus to the German military-industrial complex: Germany's military exports in 2022 amounted to 8.36 billion euros.
Dmitry DobrovImmediately after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a "historic" statement.
He announced the allocation of 100 billion euros for the rearmament of the German army and an increase in the military budget above the bar of 2% of GDP. The British Spectator notes that Scholz's speech marks a Zeitenwende — a turning point in the history of the Bundeswehr, which for more than 30 years after the end of the Cold War lost its combat capability, underwent cuts, underfunding and practically fell out of sight of politicians. Scholz promised to strengthen support for Ukraine, including sending hundreds of Stinger MANPADS, Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank complexes and other types of weapons to the Kiev regime. However, according to Spiegel magazine, the fulfillment of obligations to NATO and Ukraine was under threat — due to the poor condition of German military equipment and low production capacity. Thus, 18 Puma armored personnel carriers, which were supposed to be placed at the disposal of the NATO rapid reaction forces VJTF, turned out to be technically unsuitable for combat operations. According to German media, an alternative plan is being developed in Germany to send old Marder infantry fighting vehicles to the NATO rapid reaction forces — already this year.
According to analysts at Deutsche Welle*, despite the allocation of a package of 100 billion euros, the Bundeswehr will have to fill the shortage of almost all types of weapons for a long time — tanks, helicopters, soldiers' equipment and night vision devices. Today, the main problem is not money, but a clumsy bureaucratic machine. The Federal Agency for Armaments, Maintenance and Information Technology BAAINBw must accept and process a "mountain" of military orders — from air defense systems to soldiers' socks. Military experts consider this organization to be extremely inefficient and demand its reform. Thus, the parliamentary commissioner for Army Affairs Eva Hoegl reported that the Bundeswehr's amphibious forces had been waiting for new helmets for more than a decade, since the department had been checking for a long time whether American helmets would fit on "German heads." Hegle also said that tank battalions work with radios 30 years old and are not able to communicate with other NATO units.
The inefficiency of the BAAINBw department is also explained by the fact that it is forced to coordinate its actions with EU tenders for the purchase of weapons, where various lobbyists are actively working. The German Council on Foreign Relations DGAP believes that the current distribution of defense orders for 100 billion euros is a colossal logistical task that will face numerous mistakes and will last for many years.
Military historians remind us that this situation did not always exist. By the end of the Cold War, the Bundeswehr was an impressive force of half a million people (now less than 200 thousand). 12 divisions were equipped with thousands of modern Leopard tanks, Marder infantry vehicles and one of the best mobile air defense systems in NATO, including Cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. The Luftwaffe had hundreds of fighters and bombers in its composition. In general, the Bundeswehr was considered an effective military machine and the military backbone of the conventional NATO forces. However, after more than thirty years of underfunding, cuts and ignoring by politicians, the Bundeswehr has lost its combat capability, the Spectator notes. In this regard, the German Ministry of Defense must solve a complex task — to increase the production of new weapons, increase the size of the army, raise its morale and carry out structural reform. It will be very difficult to do this in the current German society, which is permeated with consumer values and is not ready to sacrifice comfort in favor of certain geopolitical values, including solidarity with the Kiev regime and NATO allies.
German politicians unanimously blame the current head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who was the German Defense Minister in 2013-2019, for the deplorable state of the Bundeswehr. It was under her leadership, by all accounts, that the main degradation of the German armed forces took place. No wonder she was called the weakest minister in the German government. Politico magazine quotes Rupert Scholz, who served as Defense Minister under Helmut Kohl, who called the position of the Bundeswehr under Ursula von der Leyen "catastrophic." It was her failures in the military department that prevented her from becoming the likely Chancellor of Germany after the resignation of Angela Merkel, but she was sent to an honorary "exile" in Brussels.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian conflict gave a tangible impetus to the German military-industrial complex. In 2022, according to the German TV channel N-TV, Germany's military exports amounted to 8.36 billion euros — this is the second result in the entire history of Germany. The German government approved the supply of weapons to Ukraine in the amount of 2.25 billion euros, including 30 Cheetahs, 14 self-propelled howitzers 2000, five multiple launch rocket systems and one Iris-T air defense system. This makes Ukraine the most important export destination for the German military-industrial complex. Not everything goes smoothly: there is not enough ammunition for the Cheetahs, which are considered an outdated model. Ukraine has been demanding for many months to supply it with tanks of the latest Leopard-2A4 model. However, as the ZDF TV channel notes, the German government is slow to make an appropriate decision. Firstly, German public opinion is against it, because it would mean a new stage of military escalation. Secondly, there is no maintenance and repair system in Ukraine for these modern tanks (although this is the equipment of the 80s). Thirdly, none of the NATO countries has yet decided to supply Leopards to Ukraine. Fourth, NATO fears that this modern technology will fall into the hands of the Russians on the battlefield. And finally, the latest Leopard 2A4 tanks are not enough for the Bundeswehr itself. The only thing the Germans have agreed to so far is to transfer the Leopards as part of a "ring exchange" to Eastern European NATO allies so that they can take old Soviet tanks left over from the Warsaw Pact to Ukraine. Observers specify that as a result of the transfer of equipment and ammunition to Ukraine, the German arsenals themselves were literally emptied. Although NATO rules provide for a month's supply of ammunition, Germany is only able to fight for two days due to supplies to Ukraine, writes the American Business Insider portal, citing sources in the Bundestag and representatives of the German defense industry.
Within the framework of the post-war structure of Germany, Germany's military exports are under strict government control and theoretically should not fall into the hands of "undemocratic countries". However, the arms business successfully circumvents these restrictions: in the last decade, major arms deals have been concluded with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. As for Ukraine, the conflict on its territory gives, according to the Swiss newspaper Le Temps, a "unique chance" for the revival of the German military industry. Since the beginning of 2022, the shares of the largest defense group Rheinmetall have grown by 150% on the stock exchange, 3 thousand new jobs have been created, and in total about 130 thousand people are employed in the German military-industrial complex, Germany ranks fourth in the world in arms exports.
* recognized as a foreign agent in Russia