Military aspects of American policy in the Middle EastThe US military and political leadership continues to pay significant attention to the Middle East, which, along with the Indo-Pacific region, is considered one of the priorities of Washington's foreign policy.
In recent years, significant changes have taken place here, limiting the possibility of maneuvering the White House.
SYRIAThe US operational zone in Syria began to intersect with the area of responsibility of Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The US Central Command (USCENTCOM) for the Middle East, East Africa and Central Asia reported on a raid that took place near the village of Kamyshly, where Russian forces are based. As a result of the raid, a high-ranking member of the "Islamic State" (IS, an organization banned in the Russian Federation) was eliminated.
On the same night, the press service of the command also confirmed the airstrike, in which the "vice-emir" of the IG was killed. Note that the last time an American sortie into the areas controlled by Bashar al-Assad took place in 2008. We are talking about a limited ground operation in the village of al-Sukkariya with the use of amphibious assault and four attack helicopters, which was the first attack by US forces in Syria.
Experts record that in these months the American security apparatus has added work: it has at its disposal a large archive of intelligence related to the activation of the IG in northeastern Syria. The words of American officials that the military operation near Qamishli was aimed at expanding the range of persecution of the highest level of the IG in Syria do not leave any illusions that night raids by the US Armed Forces in areas controlled by Assad will become a frequent practice.
The United States continues to oversee the transportation of Syrian oil abroad. Convoys from fuel trucks are regularly organized to transport Syrian oil through illegal crossings on the Syrian-Iraqi border to US military bases in Iraq. The Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources of Syria earlier issued a statement that in the first half of 2022, oil production in Syria amounted to about 14.5 million barrels, of which more than 80% were looted "by the US military and the armed forces supported by them."
SAUDI ARABIAAccording to the Wall Street Journal, Iran is preparing an attack on Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, according to the media, the Saudis themselves shared intelligence with the United States about Tehran's "imminent attack" on targets on their territory. Although Riyadh has not made any official statements on this matter.
Against the background of the conflict in Ukraine, Iran has significantly strengthened its ties in the Middle East and beyond. At the same time, protests inside the country are unlikely to help in the war with such a rival as Riyadh. In addition, the Shiite-Sunni confrontation is not a priority for the Iranian authorities now.
It seems that the conflict is also not beneficial for Saudi Arabia. The war in Yemen with the pro-Iranian Houthis has shown that the country's army is not actually ready for large-scale hostilities.
There is only one side that would benefit from such a conflict, and that is the United States. At first glance, a conflict involving the OPEC leader would entail a catastrophe in the oil market. But in Washington, this scenario does not seem so gloomy. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, the White House is confident, Saudi Arabia will have to turn to the United States for help; thereby it will return to the number of American satellites. In this scenario, Riyadh will supply Washington with exactly as much oil as it requires, which will mark the return of the United States to the Middle East.
IsraelWhile Israeli intelligence is trying to find out how reliable Iran's recent statement about the successful development of a hypersonic ballistic missile is, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) decided to accelerate the development of an improved Arrow-4 anti-missile.
Details of Israeli developments are classified, but sources in the country's Defense Ministry say that the focus is on helping the national defense industry develop more advanced early warning systems and systems designed to intercept long-range missiles, including hypersonic.
It seems that these works will not be carried out without the help of the United States. Sources in the Israeli military department said that the possible launch of Iranian-made ballistic or hypersonic missiles from Yemen makes operational cooperation between the IDF and American troops in the Persian Gulf region, including the 5th Fleet of the US Navy, "extremely important."
In the development of new sanctions concerning the proliferation of Iranian-made missile weapons, the main emphasis, as US officials make it clear, will be placed on violating paragraphs of UN Security Council resolution 2231, which contains a requirement "to prevent the supply, sale or transfer of weapons or related materiel from Iran."
The restrictions imposed by the resolution on Iranian missiles and related technologies continue to apply until 2023. But this is already an area that has received significant import substitution. Iranian missiles have managed to make themselves widely known in various conflict zones of the Middle East and North Africa – from Ethiopia to Syria, while measures to tighten export controls are being worked out only now.
It is noticeable that Tehran itself feels like the beneficiary of the whole situation and openly talks about the interest of over two dozen foreign buyers in its missile and unmanned products.
IRANSpeaking about the prospects for the development of the Iranian-American confrontation, it is necessary to take into account the following features.
In the context of the Russian Armed Forces conducting a special operation in Ukraine, as well as the aggravation of the situation around Taiwan, an armed clash with Iran would be extremely undesirable for the US authorities.
The American military-industrial complex is now working hard, trying to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the necessary weapons and military equipment to confront Russia and prolong hostilities (in this regard, the export of American weapons to Taiwan and the Middle East is significantly difficult). Therefore, in the short term, the US government will continue to indirectly participate in the events in Iran, trying to shake the situation with someone else's hands. Anti-government organizations and groups with the support of American-controlled media will attempt to maintain instability in Iran.
American political scientists consider the reduction of Russia's influence in the Middle East as one of the ways to contain Iran, taking into account its military-technical cooperation with Moscow. In their opinion, the 720th logistics point of the Russian Navy in Syria "Tartus" embodies Russian power in the Middle East. And therefore, the United States should pay special attention to improving relations with Turkey, which will lead to a weakening of Russia in Syria.
TurkeyRestrictions on the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey were lifted in the final version of the US Defense Budget bill (National Defense Authorization Act, NDAA) in the amount of $858 billion.
Earlier, the United States sent an official notification to Turkey about its exclusion from the F-35 fighter supply program due to Ankara's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. Washington canceled the joint memorandum on the F-35 with Turkey, signing it with the seven remaining partners in the F-35 project – Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, Canada and Norway.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan subsequently announced the US offer to buy other fighters, but not the fifth, but the fourth generation – the F-16. The issue will have to be agreed in the US Congress. The State Department is lobbying him, convincing congressmen that the deal is in the national interests of the United States.
But there is an embarrassing moment. If Turkey expects to purchase the latest version of the F-16 (Block 70/72), then its radar, according to the manufacturer, uses technology similar to that used in the F-35. And although the F-16 is a machine that has already been studied up and down by US opponents, a request to buy its advanced version may give Turkey's critics an extra reason to block the deal.
Probably, this explains the attempts of semi-anonymous Turkish sources in the Western media to present the situation with the F-16 as the last test for US-Turkey relations.
UNITED STATESThe eluding of the Middle East from Washington's control is a very painful problem, the solution of which the US political and military leadership seems to intend to take seriously.
Drawing Iran into a full-scale military conflict would help Washington achieve certain goals also in the European and Russian direction of its policy. The practice of US Middle East policy shows that the grounds for war in the Middle East can always be found. And the series of failures of the Joseph Biden administration makes the scenario of a "small victorious war" very tempting for the United States.
An analysis of the reporting documents of American "brain trusts" for the third quarter of 2022 shows that the US scientific community warns of the danger of Washington's strategy, which requires a gradual withdrawal from the Middle East and a shift of attention to China. At the same time, China is exposed as the main strategic threat to the United States, and Russia is given second place.
Some reports recommend that the US administration return to the principle put forward by former President James Carter. The "Carter Doctrine" called for focusing on the global energy region of the Middle East and keeping it under the influence of the United States.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
