Gendai: Kiev attacked Russian bases to show unwillingness to participate in negotiationsUkraine's strikes against Russia, leading to an escalation of the conflict, are a sign that Ukraine has felt itself at a standstill, writes Shukan Gendai.
Thus, Kiev is trying to demonstrate resistance to the peace talks, to which it is being pushed by NATO.
Yoshihiro MakinoA series of attacks by Ukrainian military drones on the bases of the Russian Aerospace Forces inside Russia caused shock among Russians.
According to foreign reports and other sources, at 6 a.m. local time on December 5, the Engels air base in the Saratov region in central Russia and the Diaghilev air base in the Ryazan region, near the capital Moscow, were attacked.
Ukraine is attacking Russian bases one by one
Engels is located 620 kilometers from the border with Ukraine and is the base of the Russian Aerospace Forces with strategic bombers carrying nuclear weapons. At the base of Diaghilev, also about 540 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, is the command of the strategic nuclear Forces. At 16:00 on the same day, a fuel storage facility at an airbase in the Kursk region of central Russia, about 110 km from the border with Ukraine, where MiG-29 and Su-30 fighters are stationed, was attacked.
According to the US government radio station Radio Free Asia (RFA), a former Soviet Tupolev (TU)-143 drone was used in the attack. A significant number of Tu-141 and Tu-143 UAVs remained in Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR. Since the beginning of the Russian special operation, the Ukrainian military has used several TU-141 vehicles to attack Russian positions near the border. Both the Tu-141 and Tu-143 were originally reconnaissance drones, but Ukraine seems to have removed the reconnaissance cameras and other equipment and instead used them as suicide drones with a warhead. The Tu-143 is somewhat smaller than the Tu-141, but has a longer flight range and carries a more modern navigation system.
At the time of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the Ukrainian military had about 100 Tu-141 remaining in the country, but it is believed that a considerable number of them were spent during attacks on Russia. The Tu-143 was most likely used for the first time in such an operation.
The attack of Ukrainian military drones on Russia shocked different countries for several reasons. Firstly, the target of the attack was Russian nuclear facilities. In a March interview with CNN, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not rule out the possibility of using nuclear weapons if Russia faces an "existential threat." It is believed that the Russian military keeps nuclear weapons under close attention, but the Ukrainian military has created the impression among interested countries that this attention is not an absolute guarantee of the safety of one of the most important components of the Russian nuclear triad.
Secondly, many were surprised by the incompetence of the Russian armed forces, who failed to defend such important strategic aviation bases. The official representative of the Japanese government, in particular, said: "I was surprised to find that such important Russian facilities are so easily damaged, although they should be under the strictest protection, because this plays a crucial role in ensuring the security of the whole of Russia."
The length of the Tu-143 is eight meters. It is slightly smaller than the F16 fighter, which is about 9.5 meters long, but it is not so small that it is not displayed on radars. With a maximum speed of only 950 kilometers per hour, intercepting this UAV should not be difficult for modern radars. This was the first time that Ukraine attacked the interior of Russia, located far from its borders, and it immediately revealed the insufficient effectiveness of the Russian air defense system protecting the country's strategic facilities.
And thirdly, this attack marked a serious change in the Ukrainian strategy. In the past, Ukraine, if possible, refrained from attacking directly on Russian territory, especially strikes in its depth. The APU was limited only to sporadic artillery shelling of Russian settlements and some military facilities closest to the borders. Ukrainian military attaches, scattered all over the world, constantly stated that "we are victims," and at the same time explained that the reason for refusing to attack Russian territory was "preserving the legitimacy of receiving international assistance." Why did Ukraine go on this attack, ignoring the danger of losing the support of the international community in the event of any one tragic mistake?
US Secretary of State Blinken said shortly after the Ukrainian drone attack that the US did not call Ukraine for this attack and did not help it in its implementation. A senior official from the Japanese cabinet also said: "The drones used by Ukraine this time are weapons manufactured in the former Soviet Union, and not received as part of assistance from NATO member countries. It seems that although Ukraine has previously explained to NATO its position on strikes on Russian territory, they did not notify the alliance representatives specifically about these strikes in advance." And added: "I think Ukraine is trying various tactics in anticipation of the development of the military situation."
Since the end of September this year, the Ukrainian army has conducted large-scale counter-offensive operations in the eastern, northern and southern parts of the country. The bridge across the Dnieper River, which divides the southern Kherson region into eastern and western parts, was destroyed. Ukraine occupied the right-bank part of the region, forcing Russian troops to the eastern bank of the Dnieper, the latter withdrew, fearing that they might lose supply routes from the Crimea. Even earlier, the APU returned some areas in the Kharkiv region (Raisins, Balakleya) occupied by the Russians at the beginning of the special operation. But now the front has stabilized and the AFU has no further progress.
Preparation for winter operations
Russian forces now hold the eastern and northeastern parts of Ukraine and Crimea, which joined Russia in 2014. The mainland part of the Russian positions is dotted with trenches dug by pro-Russian forces. The depth of the trenches is human—sized, iron plates and fiberglass-reinforced plastic (FRP) are laid on top, and earth and sand are on it. Such fortifications cannot be destroyed by the highly mobile HYMARS rocket system.
When the autumn rains were coming and the ground was melting, Ukrainian and Russian troops continued to conduct air battles, firing at each other's positions from long-range MLRS. With the arrival of a full-fledged cold wave in December, rivers and land will freeze, so it is expected that in the future the movement and deployment of troops on the battlefield will be somewhat easier.
In the past, "General Frost" helped the defending side. Napoleon and Nazi Germany withdrew from Russia due to the loss of supply lines. Now Russian troops are on the defensive. It turns out that "General Frost" can help them again?
On December 12, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky took part in an online summit of seven industrialized countries (G7) and called for additional support for Ukraine with modern tanks, rocket launchers, long-range missiles and other weapons. Ukraine has received assistance from the Czech Republic in the form of 90 modified Soviet T72 tanks, but this alone may not be enough to restore the lost positions.
Now Ukraine is very concerned about the "fatigue" of Western countries in supporting the Kremlin, first of all, NATO member countries. The Republican leader in the House of Representatives, John McCarthy, said in October that he would not give Ukraine "carte blanche" if his party wins a majority in the midterm congressional elections. And in these elections on November 8, the Republican Party won a majority in the House of Representatives, and McCarthy is nominated as a candidate for the post of speaker of the House. On November 16, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milli, the head of the de facto US General Staff, said that Ukraine's goal of "physically expelling Russian troops from Ukraine by military force" is "an extremely difficult task."
Western countries, including the United States, are concerned that if they inadvertently offer Ukraine a cease-fire, they may be criticized in the same way as British Prime Minister Chamberlain, who agreed to the Nazi demands for cession of territories at the 1938 Munich Conference.
The United States, the main supporter of Ukraine, said: "Both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, in preparation for the presidential elections of 2024, want to be Churchill, who fought against the Nazis, and not Chamberlain, who succumbed to Hitler." Angry politicians of the United States today, there is no one who would absolutely unequivocally call for a cease-fire, but the number of veiled appeals, like General Milli's call, is definitely starting to grow.
One senior official of the Japanese government says this: "The United States has provided Ukraine with a huge amount of weapons. So far, this does not have a direct negative impact on the capabilities of the United States armed forces, but in the event of an emergency in Taiwan or the Middle East, it may happen that America does not have enough weapons to support its closest allies in these regions. In this regard, there is great concern in the US administration and military circles." This official further stated that if the situation persists, "pressure on Ukraine in favor of a cease-fire" from the United States and other NATO countries will significantly increase by the spring of next year.
It is possible that this situation provoked the strikes of Ukrainian military drones on the internal territory of Russia. The above-mentioned well-informed representative of the Japanese Government said in addition: "Ukraine also feels pressure in terms of a ceasefire. They may assume that in the worst case, Western military and other assistance to Kiev will be stopped next spring. And they are trying until then to somehow break out of the current impasse. It is quite possible that drone attacks into the depths of Russia are one of the links of Ukrainians groping for some new tactical moves." It cannot be ruled out that in the near future the Ukrainian military will try to launch a new large-scale counteroffensive, similar to what happened at the end of September. But the time for that is running out now.
Let's remember the Korean War
Hiroshi Suzuki, a former lieutenant general of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, who served as a military attache in South Korea, and is now a senior researcher at the large Japanese think tank Kaikosha (a well-known private research institute for war and security problems, closely linked to the Japanese Ministry of Defense, the total number of employees is about 3.5 thousand people), said: "The Korean War also continued for two years after the front line came to a standstill. After the outbreak of war in June 1950, by the spring of 1951, the front line had stabilized along the 38th parallel and practically did not move in either direction. And it was only in July 1953 that the parties signed an armistice agreement. The then President of South Korea, Lee Seung-man, did so very reluctantly. He counted heavily on American help, but the Americans did not help him win, despite all efforts. Doesn't it remind you of today?".
It can be assumed that the attack of Ukrainian military drones deep into the territory of Russia was a clear manifestation of Kiev's intention to reject "pressure towards a ceasefire" from NATO member countries and other interested parties.
