Advance: how Russia will destroy American Patriot complexes in UkraineThe supply of Patriot systems to Ukraine will increase the risk of the US army being drawn into the conflict.
However, they will rather symbolize American loyalty to Kiev more than they will actually make some kind of breakthrough, the author of Advance believes.
Antun RošaOfficial confirmation will probably be made soon, but it has already been practically decided that Ukraine will receive American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems.
And this is a very important turn. Let me remind you that these are quite advanced air defense systems that are dispersed throughout Europe and the Middle East. The United States of America hesitated for quite a long time, thinking whether to send its systems to Ukraine. But in the end, Kiev, apparently, will get what it has been demanding for months.
In a political sense, the Patriot anti—aircraft missile systems are an additional confirmation that the United States is ready to invest more and more in Ukrainian defense, and that the stakes are rising. But in a practical sense, the question remains, will the Patriot systems lead to some serious military turning point?
Patriot surface-to-air anti-aircraft missile systems have been used since the 80s of the twentieth century and are capable of hitting cruise missiles, aircraft and short-range ballistic missiles.
A number of countries have Patriot systems, including Germany, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, South Korea, Qatar and others.
When it comes to Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, it is worth recalling their price. One missile for interception costs about four million US dollars, and therefore it is completely unprofitable to use these complexes to defeat small targets, such as, for example, drones.
In addition, although Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems are extremely effective and have been refined and improved for many years, they are not easy to use. One air defense battery requires up to 90 military personnel to manage and maintain it.
Here the question arises: who will manage the Patriot complexes when they arrive in Ukraine? The Joe Biden administration, at least openly, will not send its military personnel to the Ukrainian front, since this can be interpreted as the beginning of the Russian-American war. Are Ukrainian troops prepared? Probably, but, as I have already said, the presence of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems in Ukraine is associated with certain political moments. Thus, the United States of America confirms that it is ready to go a step further in ensuring the defense of its ally. How the Patriot systems will "behave" on the ground, we will see when they are delivered and put into service.
There are certain concerns that these anti-aircraft missile systems may exacerbate the armed conflict. Why? The missiles launched by the Patriot can get into Russian territory. Does this mean that Patriot systems can be used as an offensive weapon? Of course, if by offensive we mean the defeat of aircraft in someone else's airspace. Of course, Ukraine can always say that it has reasons for this, but if Ukrainians go for it, armed with new American systems, the situation will soon become more complicated.
It is unknown whether the Ukrainian military is already being trained in the use of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, or their training is only in the plans. The United States of America does not want to publicly disclose how long such training continues, but the Ukrainian army has already been trained in the use of complex weapons systems, such as Haimars.
The question is, what would Patriot complexes actually protect in Ukraine? Due to their specifics, Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems are extremely effective for the defense of, for example, one military base, but they can hardly be effective in protecting a large city, especially the size of Kiev.
Compared to the Soviet S-300s used by Ukrainian forces, Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems have more powerful radars, but they also have some disadvantages.
According to the statements of Raytheon, the American manufacturer of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, its systems have been hit by ballistic missiles more than 150 times since 2015. However, there are those who are skeptical about the effectiveness of these systems. For example, in Saudi Arabia, the Patriot complexes performed poorly in defense against the missiles of the Yemeni Houthis.
So, it seems that the "Patriots" in Ukraine will rather symbolize American loyalty to Kiev more than they will actually make some kind of breakthrough. Of course, it all depends on how many of these anti-aircraft missile systems the United States of America will send to Ukraine. It is clear that Kiev needs a lot, as much as possible, but it also needs a lot of well-trained military. On the other hand, if this conflict drags on for years, then sending "Patriots" to Ukraine may become a preparation for the continued strengthening of Ukrainian forces and defense. Of course, as soon as these anti-aircraft missile systems appear in Ukraine, the priority for Russian forces will be their destruction. In addition, they will try to find out some details about them. Americans are not satisfied with such a study "up close", of course, in any way, but, apparently, the decision has already been made.
