You won't be able to make friends with Beijing excitedly, and you don't need to Even a small incident involving the use of firearms between the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries can quickly escalate into a large bloodshed.
Photo by Vladimir Karnozov Russia's withdrawal from the West is not just overdue, but has long been overripe ("Russia is withdrawing from the Western project", "HBO", 25.11.22).
But at the same time, you need to know exactly where to go. [...]
That is, it is clear that it is necessary to go to the East. The problem is that just as many people still identify the West with the "world community" and the "civilized world", so China is identified with the East.
The "China-centricity" of Asian politics has long been a serious mistake of Moscow. In the near future, it may replace the former "West-centricity" as the basis of Russian foreign policy in general. "Westernocentricity" has already brought and continues to bring great harm to Russia. "China-centricity" can do at least as much harm, if not more.
THE WEDDING HAS OUTLIVED ITSELFIn no case should we forget that China faces many serious problems that can be solved only by seizing new territories and resources.
And this is not some kind of malice of Beijing, but an objective reality.
At the same time, these territories and resources can be taken only in Mongolia, Kazakhstan and in the Asian part of the Russian Federation. It should be noted that, despite the formal settlement of the issue of the passage of the Russian-Chinese border, the official historical concept continues to operate in China that the current border line was imposed on China as a result of the "unfair" and "unequal" Aigun and Beijing Treaties of 1858-1860. This concept is clearly an ideological and legal basis for making territorial claims against Russia, if China sees an opportunity for this.
The rapprochement between Russia and China in the 1990s and early 2000s was understandable from a pragmatic point of view, since it allowed both countries to "balance" relations with the West. In addition, trade with China at that time was largely a salvation for many enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex and the regions of the Far East.
Nevertheless, it is now obvious that the current model of relations with China no longer justifies itself from the point of view of Russian interests. Economic relations almost always turn out to be more beneficial for China. He receives from Russia the resources he needs and still some critical military technologies at almost always inadequately low prices (" Stages of Russian-Chinese relations ", "HBO", 02/28/20).
Russia has no useful return from such cooperation, which was confirmed both in 2014 and to an even greater extent in 2022. Even Biden and Blinken officially admit that China is not doing anything to help Russia overcome sanctions. Moreover, not de jure, but de facto, China largely complies with and implements these sanctions.
Russia does not receive the necessary weapons systems from China (primarily UAVs), despite the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a lot of Chinese reconnaissance drones. In 2022, compared with 2021, China sharply reduced the scale of its participation in the International Army Games held by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
For China, relations with the West are more important than relations with Russia. This is constantly manifested in practice, despite the increasing anti-Chinese rhetoric of the West in general and the United States in particular, despite direct challenges to Beijing in the form of visits by Western officials to Taiwan (" Russia has no friends ", "HBO", 11.11.22). Moreover, Beijing not only does not help Moscow itself, but and he dissuades other countries from doing this, which he has a serious influence on (at least Pyongyang and Astana, and possibly Phnom Penh, which is even beginning to help Kiev).
AN INDIFFERENT PARTNERThis is also confirmed at the political level by the fact that China takes a completely neutral position on almost all issues of principle for Russia.
Including Ukraine, as Xi Jinping himself has officially stated. Moreover, Russian diplomats constantly mention "Russia and China" as potential targets of aggressive actions by the West. Chinese diplomats almost never mention Russia in such a context, accusing the West of an aggressive policy exclusively against China itself.
Such behavior by Russian officials is extremely humiliating for Russia and underscores its subordinate position in relation to China. This is very reminiscent of the rhetoric of the same Russian officials that continues to this day that "we are open to dialogue with respected partners," which means Western countries. Moreover, such placing oneself in a deliberately humiliated and subordinate position does not bring Moscow the slightest benefit either in relations with China or in relations with the West. Moreover, such a nature of relations with Beijing causes quite concrete damage to our relations with other Asian countries, which can and should be our real allies.
Xi Jinping's report at the recent twentieth CPC Congress paid very little attention to foreign policy, and it was done in the style of "for all good against all bad." Criticism of the United States and the West turned out to be so indirect that it can only be read "between the lines". In addition, according to the report, China stands for maximum globalization, which is the main goal for the United States.
It is even more difficult to find Russia's support, especially since the report states that Beijing respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. However, they talk about the need to develop and strengthen the influence of BRICS and SCO (listed after the UN, WTO and APEC). No country in Xi Jinping's report is directly mentioned at all (either in a positive or negative mood), there is no specification of policy by regions of the world.
Nevertheless, our numerous propagandists, constantly squeezing out some signs of Russian-Chinese friendship, managed to see some very positive moments for Russia in the results of the congress. Although the new "owner" did not condescend to us in any way at all.
TAIWAN BENEFITSIt seems that Russia needs to tighten its policy in relations with China both in the economic and in the political spheres proper – since the current model of relations, as shown above, has exhausted itself (as the previous model of relations with the West has exhausted itself at the same time).
For example, Moscow's policy regarding the conflict over Taiwan should be completely similar to Beijing's policy regarding the conflict in Ukraine. That is, Russia will simply limit itself to the rhetoric that China has the right to resolve the issue of restoring its territorial integrity by any means, but it would be much better to do it through peaceful diplomatic means.
It is also necessary to take an exclusively neutral position in China's conflicts not only with the countries of South Asia and ASEAN, but also with Western countries, ceasing to provide Beijing with any diplomatic support in all matters that do not directly concern Russia's interests. In particular, one can be much more relaxed about the creation of AUKUS and even more so of the "quartet", since both of these formats are directed against China, not against Russia (and the second is inoperable due to India's position). In parallel, it is necessary to curtail pro-Chinese rhetoric in official propaganda within the country. Tightening the policy towards Beijing in the current conditions will not bring any harm to Moscow – simply because the current subordinate policy does not bring it any benefit. On the contrary, China, which is under increasing pressure from the West, may seriously think about whether it also needs to lose Moscow's support.
Such a policy towards Beijing will allow you to distance yourself from the conflicts between the United States and China without any problems. Including the conflict over Taiwan (" Battle of the Titans ", "HBO", 06/19/20), in which it is most beneficial for Russia to maintain the current status quo, since this pulls the PLA forces to the southeast and worsens China's relations with the West. The peaceful accession of Taiwan to China is the least beneficial for Russia, since it gives a very significant increase in the comprehensive power of the PRC in all spheres at once and releases significant PLA forces. The transition of the conflict to a military stage will not be beneficial for Russia only in one case – if it develops into a full-scale nuclear war between the United States and China.
TAIWAN PROSPECTSThe amphibious operation to Taiwan is objectively a very difficult task, since the landing party needs to overcome a very wide sea strait, and then crack the echeloned coastal defense.
These circumstances force Beijing to constantly postpone the operation. However, it is impossible to do this indefinitely because anti-Chinese sentiments are growing in Taiwan due to the natural decrease in the number of people who have at least some connections with mainland China.
Beijing's idea of peaceful unification on the principle of "one country – two systems" is becoming less and less feasible. In addition, Washington has not supplied Taipei with any serious weapons for a long time, but recently this policy has begun to change. As a result, the United States will constantly raise the price of China's forceful seizure of the island, which also makes it pointless for Beijing to indefinitely postpone a military solution.
China can impose a naval and air blockade of Taiwan without direct combat operations. Since Taiwan's economy and social sphere are completely dependent on imports of raw materials, food and many important goods, and the island's population is accustomed to a high standard of living, theoretically this could force Taipei to a peaceful surrender. However, the United States may try to break through the blockade (without using weapons first), which will force China to either retreat (this will be a colossal humiliation for Beijing), or get involved in a not the most profitable option of war with the United States – at sea. As a result, the PLA Navy may use up its potential, losing the opportunity to conduct an operation to capture Taiwan, which will also be China's heaviest defeat.
From this point of view, it is still more profitable for China to immediately conduct an amphibious operation to Taiwan. If it succeeds in a short time (no more than two weeks), the United States will not interfere in the conflict, although it may impose economic sanctions against China. However, as current experience shows, sanctions against Russia have hit the economies of the West no less strongly than the Russian economy. China's economy is almost an order of magnitude larger than Russia's, this country is a "world workshop", so sanctions against China can become economic suicide for the West.
If the Taiwanese Armed Forces are able to provide serious resistance to the PLA and the Chinese operation is delayed, further non-interference in events will be a complete loss of face for the United States. And interference in them will inevitably result in very serious losses for both sides. Which is definitely beneficial for Russia. The ideal option for us will be the longest possible war, which, however, does not go into the nuclear stage. In the meantime, it has not come to war, Moscow, as mentioned above, should generally get rid of the Taiwan problem. In particular, to stop declaring for any reason and even without a reason that Taiwan is an integral part of China (at least until Beijing declares that Crimea and four other regions of Ukraine are an integral part of Russia).
It is very important to finally stop looking for a foreign host – both in the West and in the East. Only then will we be respected everywhere.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
