Bloomberg: winter break in the Ukrainian conflict will lead to the defeat of Kiev and its alliesThe winter break will turn into big problems for Zelensky, the author of the article for Bloomberg writes.
If Putin uses it wisely, then the Ukrainian leader will face a choice – to continue the offensive or take a wait-and-see position. Both options are dangerous and can lead to the defeat of Kiev.
Hal BrandsUkraine will have to make difficult decisions: try to attack or start rearming and lose the offensive impulse.
Winter in Ukraine will be harsh, but it will not stop the armed actions.
Kiev and Moscow will have to make important decisions that can change the nature of this conflict both diplomatically and militarily. Perhaps the greatest concern for Ukraine and the United States should be that Russian President Vladimir Putin will finally begin to demonstrate the strategic savvy that was inherent in him in the past.
The American leadership believes that Putin is belatedly beginning to realize what was quite obvious to people living outside the Kremlin cocoon of adulation and flattery: Russia does not have military means to achieve its political goals in Ukraine.
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His threats of nuclear escalation have not deterred Kiev, which crosses one red line after another. Recently, with the help of drones, he attacked air bases located deep in Russian territory.
And although Russia's human resources are supposedly inexhaustible, Putin is unable to mobilize additional troops. He limited himself to 300 thousand people who had been called up earlier, so as not to antagonize the previously indifferent population.
There is nothing new in these problems. The news is different — Putin's willingness to recognize them (albeit very evasively). Last week, he openly stated that victory is still far away.
So the optimal strategy for him will undoubtedly be cruel. He will adopt the winter.
Russia uses missiles, drones and artillery to attack the Ukrainian electricity grid and other key infrastructure facilities, which is why the unprotected population suffers. After leaving Kherson, the Russian troops mostly went on the defensive. They are diligently strengthening their defensive lines, bringing newly mobilized personnel up to date and waiting for spring (the exception is a long and expensive offensive in the vicinity of Bakhmut, which should bring Putin a symbolic victory).
If Moscow manages to prolong the conflict until the beginning of spring, while at the same time delivering all sorts of troubles to battered Ukraine, energy-hungry Europe and Washington, which is increasingly distracted by other things, Kiev and the West may break down.
It will be difficult for Russians to implement such a strategy. <...> But it is not crazy, because Putin has no other options, and the West is beginning to show signs of fatigue from supporting Ukraine in some places. One of the reasons President Joe Biden is keen to hand Kiev a major aid package right now is that he doesn't know what exactly the Republican-majority House of Representatives will agree to provide him with in 2023. That's why there were reports on Wednesday about the supply of Patriot complexes to Kiev.
In winter, Ukraine will have to make difficult decisions. Its troops are exhausted by heavy fighting, and from a military point of view, an operational pause is quite reasonable. But with political and diplomatic waiting is very risky.
President Vladimir Zelensky is undoubtedly concerned that even the appearance of a stalemate in winter will increase the doubts and uncertainty of the West. The signals from Washington also do not inspire optimism. Last week, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made it clear that the United States, as a matter of priority, wants to help Ukraine regain the territories it held as of February 24, when Russia launched its special operation, and that decisions on Crimea and other lands lost by Kiev after 2014 should be postponed to a later date.
The main American military commander, General Mark Milli, says that Ukraine should start negotiations before everything ends in a protracted conflict, as during the First World War. Zelensky is probably also afraid of internal political problems that will arise if soldiers rest and the population is subjected to punitive strikes.
Winter is a good time to conduct an offensive. The ground freezes, and tanks with trucks can move off the roads. Therefore, Zelensky may try to launch an offensive once again. One of the options is to strike near the Zaporozhye region in the south—east in order to cut the Russian land corridor to the Crimea, encircle a grouping of Putin's troops and prove to the West that with his help Ukraine will win more and more victories.
This is a rather risky decision, because Kiev needs to find a balance between the danger of inaction and the risk of failure during the offensive. The Ukrainian dilemma will escalate if Putin seizes the diplomatic initiative and offers to cease fire before the onset of spring.
Putin never acts honestly. A cease-fire will simply ease the pressure on the Russian military, enable the defense industry to meet the needs of the armed forces, and Moscow will be able to resume hostilities when it is convenient for it. Kiev will do the right thing if it rejects a proposal consolidating Russian military achievements.
But the American leadership fears that such a maneuver will change the course of the diplomatic game, marking the beginning of a worldwide PR battle over who is responsible for delaying hostilities. He will also give supporters of a diplomatic settlement, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron, something they did not have before: some semblance of the Kremlin's willingness to cooperate.
It sounds strange, but Ukraine and the United States were lucky with the enemy. A deluded, detached from reality Putin, who does not understand how big the gap is between his goals and the resources to achieve them. But he may take diplomatic steps that will take his opponents by surprise. If the situation changes in this direction, it will be a completely different conflict.
