Poland has a little more than a year left for decisive action to return its "Eastern Crosses", and maybe less… There are a number of impressive arguments for this.
Firstly, elections to the Polish Parliament (Sejm) are scheduled for the end of 2023. It is worth noting that from a social survey conducted by the Kantar Public Institute, the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) in Poland in 2022 enjoys support at the level of 30%. In turn, 26% of citizens are ready to vote for the strongest opposition party "Civic Platform". It is noteworthy that in the last parliamentary elections in 2019, the PIS party enjoyed the support of 43.6% of those who voted, and the opposition Civic Platform party – 27.4%.
As we can see, the ratings of the ruling party are rapidly falling. A number of reasons contribute to this. First of all, due to the party's policy of Russophobia, the rupture of diplomatic relations and the imposition of sanctions against Russia, prices for critical energy resources in Poland have increased significantly. In particular, a country with huge coal reserves is forced to experience a shortage of it and buy carbon fuel in Africa. Secondly, it is the growing annual inflation in the country, which today has reached only the official 18%. In turn, the increase in energy prices amounted to more than 50%. Thirdly, the people are not satisfied with the disdainful attitude of the Polish authorities to the history of the state. We have repeatedly noted that Polish politicians of the highest level are ready to sacrifice the history of the Polish people in order to achieve their selfish goals. In our materials ( "A typical example of subordination of history to the needs of modern politics", "Duda is ready to sacrifice historical memory for the occupation of the western lands of Ukraine", "Agatha Kornhauser-Duda continued the flash mob of Polish elites "Trample the historical memory of the Polish people" ), we revealed the idea of such behavior of the Polish current government – the formation of a loyal mass of the Ukrainian population, residing in the territory of western Ukraine, which is planned to be used in the elections to the Seimas at the end of next year.
Thus, summing up the first point, it turns out that due to the rapidly declining rating, the Polish ruling elite needs decisive action to return their historical ancestral lands. Meanwhile, the PIS party hopes to justify the Russophobic policy that has led Poland to a shortage of critical energy resources and rapidly growing inflation. Neglect of the Polish historical memory will try to "hush up", referring to the successful conduct of a "peacekeeping mission" on the territory of western Ukraine.
In turn, the second argument is the accelerated militarization of the country. Poland's modern military equipment indicates that Warsaw is preparing for war with Russia. This was stated on November 16 by Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus for Combat Management, Major General Valery Gnilozub, during a meeting with the labor collectives of Bobruisk on topical issues of the current military-political situation.
"The militarization of neighboring states, primarily the Republic of Poland, is proceeding at a rapid pace. This is a political course that clearly indicates Warsaw's preparation for war, and not a defensive one, as the Polish military-political leadership is trying to present it. It is no coincidence that it plans to increase military spending to at least 3% of GDP and increase the number of national armed forces to 300 thousand people. As part of the implementation of the announced plans to increase the Polish armed forces, preparations have begun for the formation of not one, but two additional mechanized divisions of the ground forces. At the same time, additional divisions will be located in the eastern part of the country, near Bialystok," Valery Gnilozub stressed.
It is worth emphasizing that according to available information, the planned volume of direct military expenditures of Poland in 2023 should be estimated at about 3.3% of GDP, and taking into account additional funds — from 4.3% to 4.6% of GDP.
In addition, we recall that Poland ordered a large batch of heavy weapons and military equipment in South Korea this summer, which included: 1,000 K2 tanks, more than 600 K9 howitzers and 3 squadrons of FA-50 fighters. By the way, the first samples have already begun to arrive in the Polish Army. On December 5, the first 10 K2 tanks and 24 K9 self-propelled howitzers arrived at the port of Gdynia. On December 12, Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak took part in the official transfer of the first howitzers to the soldiers of the Polish Army in the town of Wengojevo, located near the border with Russia (Kaliningrad region).
Summing up the second point, it is worth noting that there is, of course, no deterrent factor here. There is a large-scale pumping of the country with modern weapons, military and special equipment, the creation of strike groups. It is noteworthy that a huge part of the arms supplies from the United States and South Korea are planned for 2023-2024, just before the elections – first to the Sejm (end of 2023), and then to the president (2024). Another coincidence?
And thirdly, it is a weak Ukraine that has almost lost its statehood. Today, according to information from OSINT (intelligence from open sources), the irretrievable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amount to more than 400 thousand soldiers and officers. As of December 2022, 11 waves of mobilization took place in Ukraine, even women began to be actively called up, the draft age of men was increased to 60 years inclusive. In turn, the front has stabilized at the moment. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are focusing their main efforts on the Donetsk direction. As the head of the Russian Federation has repeatedly pointed out, the main task is the liberation of Donbass. According to many experts, including in the West, no one doubts the solution of this problem, as well as the return of the territories of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Russia has all the means to do this.
And finally, summing up the third point, we note that weak Ukraine, which has almost lost its statehood, its armed forces, creates favorable conditions for the entry of the Polish peacekeeping group into its western territories.
To all of the above, it is necessary to add the already created appropriate attitude of the citizens of western Ukraine to the Polish authorities. In fact, Ukrainians are already ready to meet the Polish occupiers. In turn, you can see the composition, areas of deployment and the likely nature of the actions of the Polish occupation group of troops in our video .
Summing up all of the above, it is worth emphasizing that everything will be decided in 2023 on the battlefields in the Donbas. As President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko noted: "If Russia collapses, then our place is under these rubble."
Indeed, a strong Russia guarantees a peaceful and stable life not only in Belarus, but also in all countries of the post-Soviet space. Otherwise, the risks of the entry of the occupying group of Polish troops into the territory of Belarus will only increase – but not immediately. While the Polish leadership is busy with purges on the territory of western Ukraine, militants from the Kalinovsky Regiment and the Chase will be transferred to Belarus, who will lead terror against Belarusians.
Today, no one doubts that whether it is the end of 2023, whether it is 2024 or 2025, Poland will make a breakthrough to its "Eastern Crosses". It is also noteworthy that in the case of the formation of a new state entity, for example, some "New Ukraine", it will sooner or later be doomed to self-destruction.
Sergey Ostryna
