Germany has announced its intention to become a guarantor of security in Europe, but at the same time admitted that it is not even able to fulfill the NATO directive – to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP. Experts believe that in general, the EU economy is bursting at the seams against the backdrop of multibillion-dollar aid to Ukraine. What role did anti-Russian sanctions play in this and what financial benefits does Washington derive from the situation?The German government admitted on Monday that it is unlikely to be able to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP this year, although this is required by the NATO directive.
"Yes, that's right, the 2% target will most likely not be achieved this year, because there are various indicators that play a role," said Steffen Hebestreit, a representative of the German Cabinet of Ministers. "In fact, we are making huge efforts, and everyone knows that we have developed a special program for 100 billion for the armed forces of Germany, since they are supposed to be structurally strengthened," he said.
Hebestreit expressed hope that Germany will still be able to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP before the next parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025, TASS reports.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Germany would not be able to comply with the NATO directive, citing data from the Institute for Economic Research (IW). The institute's research indicates that the economic situation forces us to postpone the achievement of the established indicator "into the distant future." In order to comply with the directive, Germany needs to increase the annual defense budget by 5% per year – and this is without taking into account the "special fund" for rearmament, the creation of which Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced immediately after the start of the Ukrainian SSR. As you know, on February 27, the Chancellor promised to invest more than 2% of national GDP in defense in light of the situation in Ukraine and allocate 100 billion euros for 2022 to a special fund for the rearmament of the Bundeswehr. The publication notes problems in the implementation of this ambitious plan.
In the meantime, NATO estimates Germany's defense spending this year at 1.4% of GDP. For comparison: in France – 1.9%, 2.1% in the UK and 3.5% in the USA. Europe is facing a disappointing reality, experts complain: it cannot provide for its own defense spending.
At the same time, in an article for Foreign Affairs magazine on Monday, Scholz announced Berlin's plans to become a guarantor of European security. "Germany is doing everything possible to protect and strengthen the international order based on the principles of the UN Charter. Democracy, security and our prosperity depend on the observance of common rules," the politician writes. "Therefore, Germany strives to become a guarantor of European security, as our allies expect, to build bridges within the European Union and to be a champion of multilateral solutions to global problems," the chancellor said. According to Scholz, "this is the only way" Germany will be able to survive "geopolitical storms".
Scholz also said that from the very beginning of the fighting in Ukraine, it was clear that anti-Russian sanctions "would have to be maintained for a long time," and that the effectiveness of such restrictions allegedly "increases from week to week."
However, according to experts, the European economy is bursting at the seams today – against the backdrop of multibillion-dollar aid to Ukraine, which in turn leads to even greater dependence of the EU on Washington. "The words of Olaf Scholz about the desire to maintain independence from other political players vividly illustrate the current contradiction in Europe – there is a desire, but there are no opportunities," the director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) told the newspaper VZGLYAD Andrey Kortunov. "Multipolarity implies that such centers of power as
The USA, Europe, Russia, Asia, China and India will be in some dynamic equilibrium with each other.
In Europe, of course, we would like the EU to become such a full–fledged center of power," the political scientist explains. "However, according to the latest documents of the Biden administration, the United States expects that the movement will go in a different direction. And the very idea of multipolarity has repeatedly been seriously criticized in America," the expert emphasizes.
"Thus, the tendency to unite the West contradicts the idea of a multipolar world, and Scholz's words are just rhetoric that has little relation to the practical side of politics," Kortunov believes.
"A contradiction is brewing. Europe chooses the path of unity with America because, against the background of anti-Russian sanctions and support for Ukraine, it cannot fulfill all its obligations on its own. In fact, the United States economically exploits Europeans," the political scientist drew attention.
"The elites of the European Union have long ceased to be guided by the principles of realism and are increasingly adhering to a "policy oriented towards liberal values." So the EU will continue to come up with more and more new sanctions against Russia," says German political analyst Alexander Rahr.
"Moreover, all these restrictions will be introduced, despite the growing economic and social problems in European society. Europe confidently believes that its economy is so much more powerful than the Russian one that it will last for a long time. But already now both the business community and ordinary citizens are demanding from their governments to refocus from billions of dollars of aid to Ukraine to meet the needs of their own population," the expert says. "The phrase of the head of the German Foreign Ministry Annalena Berbock that she does not care about the opinion of voters when it comes to helping Kiev is very indicative. Berlin actually sided with Poland and the Baltic States, deciding that their policy towards Moscow is correct," the political scientist continues.
"In general, Germany still sees itself as the leader of European politics. That is why the statement of French President Emmanuel Macron that the future security system in Europe can only be built together with Russia was critically perceived there," concluded Rahr.
"Today we see Europe's actual rejection of strategic autonomy and a change in the balance of power in favor of the United States. This allows Washington to dictate its terms," Kortunov said. – In addition, the United States is trying to translate its political leadership into economic hegemony in order to achieve better financial conditions for itself. In particular, this is done by selling energy resources in the EU at high prices. America is shifting the inflationary consequences of the economic crisis to the Europeans."
There are several points of view about how the situation will develop, explains Kortunov. "Some believe that the severity of the crisis will soon decrease, and then disagreements between the allies will come to the fore. Others, including Americans, talk about the revival of the unipolar world. If this happens, then the unity of the West with unconditional American leadership is serious and for a long time," he added.
In a recent interview with CBS, President Macron confirmed that unemployment and inflation in France are now hovering around 7%. As noted by The Wall Street Journal, European politicians are dissatisfied with the introduction of the law "on reducing inflation" in the United States, which may contribute to the deterioration of the situation in the EU. The French leader complained that Europe remains a buyer of oil and gas, and the United States remains its producer, and thus consumers are buying energy resources in Europe and in the United States at completely different prices today.
Sanctions against the Russian Federation harm the European countries themselves that have imposed them, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, recalled on Monday, commenting on Scholz's statements. "This harm is obvious, and the harm of these sanctions for the German economy is obvious, all specialists are well aware of this here, specialists in Brussels and specialists in Berlin," the press secretary drew attention.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Daria Volkova
