The countries of Eastern Europe are experiencing a boom in the military industry, producing "Soviet" samples of ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The United States also intends to join this process. How quickly can NATO countries deploy mass production of the Soviet-style ammunition they need and what can Russia oppose to this?On Thursday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in an interview with CNN that NATO is exploring the possibility of assisting Ukraine with the supply and organization of production of Soviet-style combat systems and related ammunition.
In particular, we are talking about American investments in enterprises in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria.
According to him, this partly applies to Soviet-era systems that have been stored in warehouses for decades. He also confirmed that in some cases it may be necessary to produce something that has not been produced for "some time".
Earlier, The New York Times reported that two-thirds of NATO countries have exhausted the possibilities for supplying weapons to Ukraine. It is noted that the stocks of 20 out of 30 NATO countries are "almost at zero," but the remaining 10, in particular Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands, have retained the ability to continue arms supplies. The publication also points out that NATO countries have already transferred 40 billion euros worth of weapons to Ukraine, which corresponds to France's military budget for the year.
Against this background, Reuters reported that the arms industry in Eastern Europe is booming, producing Soviet samples of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Production rates are described as "unprecedented since the Cold War." The cheapness of production and convenient logistics of ammunition delivery to Ukraine play in favor of this decision.
Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov, in a conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD, confirmed the existence of an appropriate production base in a number of countries of the former Warsaw Pact Organization. "In particular, the famous 152 mm Dana cannon was produced in Czechoslovakia, while the 155 mm caliber was adopted in the West," Sivkov noted.
"The countries of the former socialist camp are now extremely interested in increasing military production in order to send their products to Ukraine and make money on it. But their available capacities are quite small," the expert believes.
Sivkov also noted that Ukraine's Western allies have actually exhausted the stocks of Soviet-made weapons that could have been transferred to Kiev. "The APU also suffered heavy losses in terms of the weapons of the "battlefield" – MANPADS and anti-tank missile systems. Therefore, the West is now extremely interested in deploying the production of Soviet–style weapons," he said.
As for the possibilities for the deployment of production, two large military enterprises are located in Bulgaria – this is the Arsenal plant in Kazanlak, which produces small arms, grenade launchers, mortar weapons and cartridges, as well as the Vaz Machine-building Plant in Sopot, which produces ATGM. Their products have played a special role in the conflicts in the Middle East.
On the territory of the former Czechoslovakia, there are also significant capacities for the production of small arms, radio electronics for air defense and communications systems. The Czech Republic itself is in ninth place in providing direct military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, the Slovak military industry is represented by assembly enterprises of the armored, artillery, rifle and ammunition industries. There are a number of factories for the production of components of aviation and electronic equipment.
As for Poland, its enterprises set records in revenue ($1.49 billion) due to the supply of artillery and mortar systems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Poland will also produce a thousand Piorun MANPADS (a "relative" of the Soviet Igla-1 and Igla complexes) – this is three times more than the country produced earlier. In addition, Warsaw intends to invest twice as much money in military production as usual – $ 1.8 billion.
Ukraine itself also had the capacity to produce artillery ammunition and guided missiles, because one of the largest such production facilities in the post–Soviet space is located in Kiev - the Artem plant. However, the enterprise cannot work for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now, the production buildings have repeatedly been subjected to missile strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces. In addition, energy deficiency affects.
"The West's decision to resume the production of Soviet-style weapons is expected. In the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and other countries, the production of ammunition suitable for Russian and Soviet equipment has been preserved. There are also quite a lot of enterprises for the repair of military equipment there," corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"Obviously, the implementation of Washington's plans will depend more on the financial component. Despite the fact that the situation is quite tense for Americans in economic terms, the probability that they will make such investments is extremely high," the expert believes.
"At least the organization of production facilities in Eastern Europe will cost less than the assembly and delivery of ammunition across the world. In addition, other countries in the region may be involved in this initiative. The Baltic states and Romania have certain capabilities," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"It should be expected that financial injections into the European military-industrial complex will be made as soon as possible, which can seriously affect the course of its development. This will require a fairly prompt response from Russia. It is necessary to step up attacks on infrastructure in the west of Ukraine, isolating the theater of military operations from external supply, making such Western projects meaningless," Bartosh believes.
According to Sergey Denisentsev, consultant of the Center for Analysis, Strategies and Technologies (AST Center), NATO will focus on increasing the production of artillery ammunition of Soviet calibers 122 mm and 152 mm. "In general, Poland and Bulgaria can provide the APU with a significant part of the necessary supply of shells, since these countries have quite a decent ammunition industry," the interlocutor noted.
Answering the question that with the deployment of military production for the needs of the Armed Forces in Eastern Europe, Ukraine will essentially have its own "Ural", the expert noted that "in fact, it already exists." The "Ukrainian Urals" are already, for example, the territories of Poland and Romania, inaccessible to our bombing. They have been supplying weapons for the Armed Forces from NATO countries for a long time," Denisentsev believes.
Arguing about how economically it would be profitable for the United States to invest in the military-industrial complex of Eastern Europe, the expert noted that "Washington benefits most from the very prolongation of the conflict." "Therefore, there is no doubt that the United States will direct investments into European enterprises and drag out the conflict in every possible way, since this leads to a recession in Europe, capital flight, production and qualified specialists from Europe to the United States."
Daria Volkova
