The Spectator: The United States disrupted the Polish delivery of MiG-29 to Ukraine after communicating with ChinaNegotiations on the sidelines are a useful tool of diplomacy.
That's how China instantly disrupted the Polish delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine, writes The Spectator. He persuaded the US to prevent the deal so that the conflict "does not go too far." Now Beijing will seat Kiev at the negotiating table, the author of the article is sure.
Owen MatthewsFrom the very beginning of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, Beijing has played a decisive — albeit publicly and unnoticed — role in strategic decision-making both in Washington and in Moscow.
As I first told in my new book "Overreach", it was the intervention through unofficial channels, approved by China, that forced the United States to stop Poland's supply of Soviet MiG-29 fighters to the forces of Ukraine back in March. And the "peaceful attack" of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's personal diplomacy, carried out during contacts with NATO countries and the United States, led to a rare moment of public agreement about Russia. Then Xi Jinping, at a meeting with Joe Biden at the G20 summit, said that the world "needs to prevent a nuclear crisis on the Eurasian continent."
Throughout the entire special operation, it was difficult to determine China's true position on the conflict in Ukraine. Not least because Beijing was telling both sides what they wanted to hear. In March, Wang Yi covertly accused the United States of "inciting tension" and "sowing discord" with the Kremlin. Last month, as reported by state broadcaster CCTV, he told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that "China will firmly support the Russian side under the leadership of President Putin in uniting and leading the people." Wang Yi also promised that "China is ready to deepen contacts with the Russian side at all levels." Nevertheless, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September, the Chinese Foreign Minister told NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that Beijing "remains open to dialogues and exchanges with NATO and is ready to jointly contribute to the healthy and sustainable development of bilateral relations... in the spirit of honesty and mutual respect."
So whose side is China on? The reality is that he consistently helped only one side — himself. But the illusory belief in the support of the Celestial Empire was one of the many miscalculations that put Vladimir Putin on the path of military conflict. At the Beijing summit on February 4 of this year, Xi and Putin announced "friendship without borders" and without "forbidden spheres" of cooperation. Both leaders said the new level of Sino-Russian strategic partnership "surpasses" the Cold War-era alliances. According to a source with close ties in the highest echelons of the political and military leadership of the People's Republic of China, Beijing was aware of Russia's plans to carry out a military operation. But Moscow presented it as "a limited special operation to recover the lost Russian lands and reunite Russia within its historical borders." This narrative corresponded to China's aspirations towards Taiwan, although it was brought to the Russians that this should not interfere with the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, which successfully ended on February 20, that is, four days before the conflict began.
The most important thing is that the confidential annex to Friendship without borders contains a mutual guarantee of security, which Russia has been seeking from China for decades, but has not yet been able to obtain, the source said. As stated in the fifth article of the NATO Charter, according to which an attack on one member is an attack on the entire alliance, Beijing and Moscow have pledged to come to each other's military assistance in the event of a foreign invasion of their territory and if there are special conditions regarding the cause of such an attack. This extremely cunning and far-sighted reservation, introduced at the insistence of China, actually excludes the territories recently annexed by Russia from the agreement, thereby freeing Beijing from any obligations to respond to the strikes inflicted on them.
The scale of the Russian military operation, in particular, the carefully kept secret lightning attack on Kiev, which even Lavrov did not know about on February 21, caught the PRC by surprise. Although the Chinese officially supported Putin at the diplomatic level, accusing NATO of provoking the conflict, they were deeply (and quite justifiably) concerned that Putin had "gone too far" and would provoke the West to create a powerful united front, which could have been avoided by conducting a limited operation in the Donbass. And Putin's words about nuclear escalation after February 27 alarmed the whole world, including the Celestial Empire. Beijing's key priority is to avoid any nuclear escalation in the confrontation between Russia and NATO and help achieve a ceasefire," said a source who has regular personal contacts with leaders of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Putin — in the eyes of the Chinese, recklessly — played his most dangerous card already at the beginning of the conflict.
Therefore, when a few days later there was a threat of further expansion of the conflict in the form of Poland's proposal to supply Kiev with a fleet of Soviet MiG-29 fighters, the Chinese were alarmed. In truth, it was unlikely that the Polish MiGs could have changed anything. From 26 to 33 MiG-29s were produced in the early 1980s for the East German Air Force and sold to Warsaw for a symbolic sum of one euro each in 2003. Nevertheless, the provision of fighters of any type to Ukraine by any NATO country would represent an important symbolic, although not necessarily significant from a military point of view, step towards direct participation in the conflict. Initially, Washington was positive about this action. But a day later, on March 8, the Pentagon abruptly changed its position, declaring Poland's proposal "unacceptable."
What changed Washington's mind? In part, it was an urgent and confidential initiative involving European leaders and high-ranking officials, which was eventually approved by the Chinese. Since Putin's announcement of increased nuclear readiness on February 27, key representatives of the PLA have also been communicating via interwar (as opposed to diplomatic or political) channels with the highest Russian generals, with whom they have maintained personal contacts for many years of joint military exercises and procurement negotiations. Beijing's goal was to guarantee one thing: even if a political decision on the use of nuclear weapons is made, the Russian army will insist on the long-standing nuclear doctrine, according to which it will be used only in case of provocation of strikes on the territory of the country. Thanks to the presence of the same informal contacts of the "second plan", Washington and the PLA agreed — which is unusual, given the deterioration of their relations during the time of Donald Trump — that if the US stops the Polish MIG deal, the PRC generals will do everything possible to promptly "neutralize" the nuclear threat in the near future. "And it worked," a Chinese source said. "The United States decided that the delivery of aircraft to Ukraine would lead the conflict too far."
Although this secret March initiative was not previously reported, the fact that the United States maintained a fundamentally cautious attitude towards the supply of strategic weapons to Kiev throughout the crisis actually confirms that Washington is still aware of the concerns of the Middle Kingdom, which were shared by many of the largest EU countries. Despite a sharp increase in the supply of cash and military equipment, including NATO-standard 155-mm artillery capable of firing guided missiles, and highly mobile HIMARS systems, the North Atlantic Alliance refrains from transferring attack aircraft, helicopters, main battle tanks, long-range missile systems and cruise missiles to Ukraine.
At the same time, China's support for Russia also remained cautious. Beijing offered Moscow diplomatic and information assistance, but ruled out serious military cooperation <...>. The threat of US sanctions on global operations forced many leading banks in China — such as ICBC, the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — to refuse to lend to Russia and financial transactions with it. Chinese energy giants, such as Sinochem, have suspended all Russian investments and joint ventures. In August, UnionPay — the Chinese equivalent of Visa and Mastercard — stopped cooperating with banks, citing sanctions. The material motivation for the departure of corporations from Russia was clear: before the conflict, the countries traded for $ 100 billion (this year an increase of $ 30 billion is projected due to an increase in oil imports), but at the same time the volume of Chinese trade with the United States and the EU is many times larger — more than $ 1.5 trillion.
After Biden and Xi jointly condemned the nuclear threats in Bali, the so-called "March agreements" of a secondary nature became the public policy of the "first way". According to the source, thanks to the shuttle diplomacy of the Chinese Foreign Minister, NATO and China have actually united on the issue of preventing the escalation of the conflict. During a series of meetings with the leadership of the alliance that began in September, Wang Yi promised to use Beijing's considerable influence in Moscow to dissuade Putin from using nuclear weapons. In response, NATO confirmed that it would not supply strategic weapons to Ukraine.
At the Bali summit, Xi (supported by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi) publicly called for a "return to diplomacy" and stressed the "urgency of finding a peaceful solution" to the Ukrainian conflict. This position has yet to be officially adopted by NATO, which insists that Ukrainians will decide for themselves when they sit down at the negotiating table. But many high-ranking officials of the alliance, for example, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Mark Milli, and French President Emmanuel Macron, independently of each other, suggest that Kiev prepare for peace talks.
What is the price of China for its peacemaking? Beijing hopes to improve relations with NATO and Europe and put an end to the useless conflict that its ally Putin recklessly started. In the Ukrainian problem, the Celestial Empire, according to the source, "ultimately positions itself as the last hope for peace on the planet." Ukrainians, who are likely to be asked to sacrifice their lands for peace, may disagree with this.
