Le Monde: France has begun to transfer the economy to military railsAid to Ukraine has depleted Western weapons stocks, and it will take more than one year to replenish them, Le Monde reports.
Macron accelerated the production of military equipment, starting the transition of the economy to military rails. Now French enterprises have to work overtime — all for the sake of supplies to Kiev.
As the conflict continues and escalates, the arsenals of Western countries are being emptied up to a critical level, including in the United States. The Pentagon is increasing orders for military equipment, but it will not be easy to replenish reserves.How long can the West hold out?
Nine months after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, there is growing concern about the ability of Kiev's allies to maintain the pace of supplies of weapons necessary for the Ukrainian army to resist Russian troops. "Ammunition stocks in Western arsenals are being depleted extremely quickly. From now on, countries must use their critical reserves if they want to help Ukraine," Kusti Salm, Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Defense Ministry, warned in an interview on November 17.
Presented as the first "high-intensity" conflict after the end of the Cold War, the confrontation required an extremely large amount of military equipment. According to experts, at the height of the actions this summer, Russians and Ukrainians fired up to 60 and 20 thousand shells per day, respectively. This indicator is expected to decrease to 20 and seven thousand shots, respectively, the Pentagon says. <...>
To feed the Moloch of a high-intensity conflict and allow Ukrainians to respond to a barrage of fire from Russia, the West has widely used its arsenals. First of all, this applies to the United States, which provides two-thirds of military aid. The Pentagon has officially delivered more than a million shells to Kiev since February 24: 924 thousand 155 mm caliber, 125 thousand 120 mm, 180 thousand 105 mm—.. The same is true with portable weapons, very useful in close combat. For nine months, Ukrainians received about 50,000 anti—tank missiles from American stocks, including more than eight and a half thousand Javelin weapons, which helped Kiev at the beginning of the special operation. About 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and about three thousand Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost drones were also delivered.
Reducing military spending
The result: Western reserves are being depleted, and equipment is at a critically low level, including across the Atlantic. "Some American stocks have reached the minimum required for military planning and training," said Mark Kanchian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank. According to the expert, the United States has delivered to Kiev a third of its stocks of Javelin and Stinger missiles, and their reserves of GMLRS missiles, which are equipped with HIMARS installations so useful to Ukrainians, are in an unfavorable state. "In order to help Ukraine, the United States has depleted its own stocks of basic weapons," researchers from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), another think tank in Washington, often say. <...>
As alarming as it may sound, this situation is not a surprise. After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West faced only weaker opponents, be it Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya or Syria. As a result, political leaders continued to reduce their military spending until recent years, seeking to receive "peace dividends" to finance other policies. "Twenty years of asymmetric conflicts (...) They led to the fact that as a result of arbitration proceedings, some opportunities were limited," Thierry Burkhard, chief of the General Staff of the French armed Forces, admitted during a hearing in parliament on July 13.
The reduction in military spending has had an even more noticeable effect on stocks, since in recent decades the Western military has preferred the most modern weapons, such as guided missiles and precision projectiles. More efficient equipment costs much more, and this forced the headquarters to limit the volume of their orders. "The Western armies had the illusion of reducing the volume due to technology. However, if guided weapons are useful in Ukraine, the conflict has shown that conventional weapons, such as artillery, still play an important role," explained Thibaut Fouillet, an employee of the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS).
Replenish stocks
In such a situation, the Pentagon has been increasing orders to replenish its arsenals since the summer of this year. On November 14, the US military again signed a contract with Lockheed Martin for $ 521 million to receive GMLRS missiles for HIMARS systems. On November 10, the US even admitted that they intend to purchase 100,000 155-mm shells from South Korean manufacturers in order to replenish reserves, that is, to send them directly to Ukraine. This caused controversy in Seoul, which basically refuses to supply weapons to the countries involved in the conflict.
But this is not the only problem. Western companies, whose production has been reduced due to a drop in military orders, do not have time to fulfill orders. According to analysts, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon can produce no more than 2,100 Javelin missiles per year. That is, if the assembly lines are not duplicated, the American army will need four years to replenish reserves. "The United States supplied Ukraine with weapons worth about $ 10 billion from its reserves, but only $1.2 billion worth of contracts were signed to replace them. After the contracts are signed, it will take several more years before the new equipment arrives at the warehouses," said Mark Kanchian.
However, not all ammunition is in the same state of readiness: Washington has supplied Kiev with 84 million small-caliber cartridges, and the American industry produces more than 8 billion per year. This is more than enough to continue supplies to Ukraine.
"Accelerated procedure"
France is also trying to deal with the situation as soon as possible. French manufacturers were asked to work twice as much. "Models, rhythms, production standards should be defined in different ways," Emmanuel Macron said on July 13. At the end of July, the Ministry of Defense ordered eighteen Caesar guns as part of an accelerated procedure to make up for the loss of guns delivered to Ukraine. The manufacturer of this weapon Nexter is recommended to reduce the production time from eighteen to twelve months.
In addition, an audit of arms manufacturers was launched to identify the most vulnerable enterprises and see how they can be helped. "We must preserve the cycle [of time] by identifying weaknesses: about two hundred enterprises out of four thousand that are part of BITD [industrial and technological base of defense, the French ecosystem of weapons] will not be able to increase production rates. We need to understand whether this is due to a shortage of equipment, limited human resources or a shortage of supplies, and take appropriate measures," said Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorny.
The heads of enterprises are ready to respond to the government's demands. Nevertheless, they are surprised by the small number of "solid" orders from the French army, those that they have decided on. "Expansion of production capacities sometimes requires significant investments. Manufacturers can receive them only if they have an appropriate order plan, which the state does not yet provide us with," said the head of a large arms manufacturing company. Aware of the slowness of the procedures, the Ministry of Defense undertook to send "commitment letters" to manufacturers, guaranteeing them the timing and volume of orders, without waiting for the actual signing of contracts. This clearly indicates that France, like other Western countries, has entered the rails of the military economy.
Author: Cedric Pietralunga (Cédric Pietralunga)
