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When will Ukraine run out of ammunition

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Image source: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/ТАСС

Ukraine has become short of ammunition – shells, missiles and cartridges fly away like "into the furnace". There is no production of their own, the old Soviet stocks are almost used up, and the West states that the United States and European countries "are facing a challenge due to the depletion of weapons stocks to be sent to Ukraine." How much ammunition is needed to conduct full-fledged combat operations? Guns from the AFU are still firing, missiles are flying – mostly NATO 155-mm caliber shells or MLR missiles of the American MLRS HIMARS.

Cartridges for 5.45-mm and 7.62-mm machine guns and machine guns are shot by the Ukrainian army from old stocks, there is a frank shortage with NATO, and the American M-16 automatic rifle with 5.56-mm cartridges is not in use at all. At the same time, The Washington Post, citing sources in NATO, writes that Western countries "have to dig deeper into their reserves" in order to provide ammunition to the Ukrainian army.

And in Kiev, they declare "the depletion of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine in Western countries. Indeed, there is such a trend." As stated, NATO countries are conducting an audit and revision of all available weapons and ammunition in order to "find remnants in warehouses that can be transferred to Ukraine."

One day of war, in relation to the fighting in Ukraine, eats up a huge amount of ammunition. The magazine of the AK-74 machine gun allows you to release 30 rounds in three seconds. The rate of fire of 152-mm ACS "Acacia" (are in service with both the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and partially with the Armed Forces) is three shots per minute.

But in war, guns are rarely silent, respectively, they need regular replenishment with shells. Offensive combat "eats up" an average echelon of ammunition in one or two days. Moreover, after several hundred (sometimes thousands) shots, the barrels of the guns need to be replaced, because they wear out, and the accuracy of firing decreases.

For small arms during active hostilities, five to six BC (combat kit) are laid for one soldier per day. One BC includes 450 rounds – accordingly, one serviceman shoots an average of 2500 rounds per day. According to the norms of supply, each infantryman should have three BC at hand and one more in reserve – this is both a wearable kit and one that is directly on armored vehicles or accompanying supply vehicles. The rest is brought from the deeper rear.

For artillery, a daily consumption of three to four BC is laid for one gun, where it is 1500 shells.

A recent State Department report also speaks about the scale of Ukraine's arms supply. Since February of this year, the United States has sent about 90 thousand tons of weapons and ammunition to Kiev, about nine hundred flights of military transport aviation have been made. About a million artillery shells were sent alone.

However, even this figure only looks big. In reality, a conflict of such intensity and duration requires a much larger amount of ammunition. If we estimate the remaining potential of the AFU artillery in the order of 70-80 guns, then they will need about 400 thousand shells in one day of active hostilities. Taking into account the fact that about 300 shells can be placed in one railway car, this is more than a thousand pullman freight cars.

The Ukrainian army also uses arsenals that are located in the immediate vicinity of the line of contact. A fairly large number of them were created in the multi-layered defense lines around Donbass, however, many were destroyed by high-precision strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces. The main supply of ammunition is carried out from NATO bases in Poland and Romania. At the same time, both rail and road transport are used – in seemingly inconspicuous trucks.

"The consumption of ammunition varies significantly from different types of combat – both offensive and defensive," military expert Lieutenant General Anatoly Khrulev told the newspaper VZGLYAD. – The consumption of ammunition per barrel is calculated by the commander depending on the type of battle and the availability of targets for destruction. Of great importance is the availability of intelligence when the fire is not conducted blindly, which requires more ammunition consumption, but on point targets.

The golden rule of war: there are shells – they are "burned", if there is a shortage of ammunition – they are saved. The so-called irreducible stock of ammunition should be 25 percent, if less, then you need to urgently request their delivery and expect reinforcements.

In August 2008, in the 58th army, I had five BC for each gun barrel, the same number of infantry for small arms, which made it possible to ensure the first offensive actions. The supply of ammunition, of course, was required, but for the further development of success."

According to the general, the training of personnel is of great importance in the consumption of ammunition. "In sniper training, this is one, maximum two rounds to kill. In artillery, where 50 shells are laid to destroy the target, professionals fit in less than six to eight accurate shots," says General Khrulev.

Of course, this is if we keep in mind the traditional conduct of hostilities in the style characteristic of conflicts of the recent past. As practice has shown, today the effectiveness of fire, especially artillery, is increasing dramatically – primarily due to new methods of targeting and adjustment. A well-trained crew in conjunction with a spotter drone can destroy a target much faster.

In addition, high–precision artillery ammunition is becoming increasingly widespread - in Russia, for example, Krasnopol. They are, of course, extremely expensive, but they allow you to hit the target from the first or second time, rather than using thousands of very cheap conventional shells.

"The expression "spare no bullets" has not been suitable for the conduct of modern wars for a long time,

– the former commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Georgy Shpak, told the newspaper VZGLYAD. – Since Soviet times, the army has promoted such a slogan as: "Every shot is on target." And he was embodied in practice. For example, seven shots were fired to hit a target with an 82-mm mortar for training purposes, five mines were allocated for this at the Airborne Forces training center in Ferghana, where specialists were trained before being sent to Afghanistan. In Afghanistan itself, this was already a standard of three shots, and during the fighting, an experienced gunner laid a mine on target from the first shot. And here there was a nuance not in saving ammunition, but in saving strength, because ammunition had to be carried on their shoulders in the mountains."

"There is a big difference in the consumption of ammunition during a special operation in Ukraine between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," military observer Vladislav Shurygin told the newspaper VZGLYAD. – The Russian army receives them in due quantity and regularly. Our gunner does not need to turn to the bearer with the question: they say, where is the projectile? Ukrainian gunners now understand that the cannon has nothing to fight back with. They have already successfully shot everything that was in the positions and are now just waiting for additional supplies of shells. And if they are not there, then there will be nothing to fire with."


Victor Sokirko

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Comments [2]
№1
23.11.2022 17:55
2500 патронов = 83 магазина в день  (40 кг) - автор сильно загнул...
наврал также про суточный расход 1500 снарядов. Это на чем же их возить ему будут? (вес снаряда порядка 40 кг. 1500*40 кг = 60 тонн...
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№2
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