19fortyfive: US Navy sea transport is aging and shrinkingMaritime transport, which provides the United States with their global mobility, is aging and shrinking, writes the author of the article on the website 19fortyfive.
He notes that the country's shipping fleet suffers from a pernicious combination of circumstances: wear and tear, late maintenance and a shortage of qualified crews.
Daniel GoureWhat is the measure of a superpower?
The scale and diversity of the nuclear arsenal and means of delivery? The size of the army? The number of ships in the fleet? All these are necessary, but insufficient criteria for the country's military potential.
The unique strategic advantage of the United States is its ability to transfer large forces and assets across the oceans and support them during hostilities, often for many years. This is important in order to carry out comprehensive deterrence, conduct expeditionary and humanitarian operations and instill confidence in friends and allies. If deterrence fails, it will be vital to transfer reinforcements and maintain a continued presence. Thus, sea transportation is an important indicator of the US military power.
How does the US military end up abroad? Some of the personnel and weapons are sent by air. But up to 90% of military equipment and supplies, especially army and Marine Corps, move by sea. Although the Air Force and Navy can deploy troops more or less independently, they need refueling in the air and at sea. And after deployment, it is the sea transport that delivers ammunition, spare parts and other important materials. As one former high-ranking official of the Maritime Administration noted: "This is how we transfer forces from continental America to any other point in the world. We can place part of it in the fuselage of the C-17, but only part... if we need real combat power, then we will need ships."
Even at the height of the Cold War, when a significant part of the US armed forces were stationed abroad, a key element of deterrence was the ability to send reinforcements and resupply. After the end of the cold war, the need to deploy forces abroad even increased, since the bulk of foreign forces returned home. With the current requirement to demonstrate military power abroad, the role of shipping in the Biden administration's National Security Strategy has increased. Russia and China are both identified in it as the main threats, which complicates the task, since the United States intends to deter and defend itself simultaneously in Eastern Europe and the western Pacific.
The United States will not achieve its national security goals without reliable transfer of a huge amount of weapons and materials anywhere in the world. The problem is that maritime transport, which provides the United States with their global mobility, is aging and shrinking. Military publications have long been sounding the alarm about its deplorable state — both state and commercial elements of it.
Simply put, the military transport fleet is about to fall off the cliff. All four elements of maritime transportation — pre-positioned vessels, auxiliary sea transport, ready reserve fleet and commercial vessels under the US flag under the Maritime Security Program — faced serious problems. The U.S. shipping fleet is suffering from a pernicious combination of circumstances: wear and tear, late maintenance, and a shortage of qualified crews. But many years ago, the Navy warned that if by 2035 it did not take decisive action to recapitalize the previously placed ships and reserves, the fleet would be able to deliver only half of the necessary weapons, equipment and supplies.
The Navy, the US Department of Defense and Congress have been unable to ensure a reliable future of state shipping for several years. The solution generally accepted at the moment can be called a "sliding" recapitalization. Used commercial vessels are purchased and sent to the reserve fleet after repair. And the ships released in advance will join the reserve fleet. The Navy has also launched a program to extend the service life of the newest of the pre-positioned ships and reserves.
The Congress expressed concern that the recapitalization of shipping is delayed. Several of its members, in particular Rob Wittman from the House of Representatives, proposed to assign responsibility for the modernization of the reserve to the Maritime Administration.
But even after the modernization of the transport fleet, in the event of a large-scale conflict, the United States will need commercial vessels under the American flag. This is why there is a Maritime Security Program that pays shipowners a reward in exchange for constant readiness. Private shipping companies in the United States — for example, Crowley Maritime — have played a key role in providing humanitarian assistance in Haiti and West Africa.
The military is counting on a commercial fleet under the US flag, but it is being squeezed by cheaper foreign competitors. Such measures as the Jones Act and the Law on Cargo Preferences are largely dictated by the interests of US national security.
According to the Jones Law, all vessels carrying cargo in inland waters or between American ports must sail under the US flag and with an American crew. Further incentives to American shipping companies are a relatively cheap way to ensure the survival of this sector. Criticism that the Jones Act allegedly hinders the response to humanitarian crises is unfounded. On the contrary, the Jones Act helps to preserve the most important national security capabilities and provides a ready fleet of ships with trained crews.
The same can be said about the Law on Cargo Preferences, according to which goods that are owned, purchased, supplied with the participation or funded by the US government must be transported by ships under the American flag. All military cargo and 50% of state and agricultural goods fall into this category. This provides a reliable business basis for carriers under the flag of the United States, so that they readily respond to a threat to national security.
The US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps are the most modern and deadly in the world. America has a huge number of alliances and friendships around the world. But in order to prevent conflicts and win the war, these assets will have to be used and supported in every possible way. Therefore, without reliable shipping, the United States will cease to be a superpower.
Daniel Gur is senior vice president of the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit research organization headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. He has held senior positions both in the private sector and in the US government. He was a member of the transition group of the Ministry of Defense in 2001. He worked for two years in the US government as Director of the Office of Strategic Competitiveness in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
