The seventh meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine plans to satisfy the requests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine On November 16, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will hold the seventh meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine (Ramstein-7).
This meeting will be held in an online format at the Pentagon. The forum will allow the defense ministers of almost 50 countries to discuss further efforts to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons, military and special equipment.
The previous meeting in the "Ramstein" format took place on October 12. Then US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that Ukrainian troops, with the support of weapons provided by the West, "changed the dynamics of the conflict."
Last week, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh did not go into details about the planned transfer of new weapons to Ukraine, but noted that "we are talking about different equipment as the battlefield changes."
So far, in this regard, we can only assume what weapons, military and special equipment (VVST) the States participating in the Contact Group are going to transfer to Ukraine. Now we can definitely say only that Kiev will not receive in the near future. First of all, this applies to the main battle tanks (type M1 Abrams and Leopard 2A5), fighters such as F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F/A-18 Hornet, unmanned aerial vehicles of the MALE (and HALE) classes such as MQ-1C Grey Eagle.
As for the air force that will be transferred to Ukraine after Ramstein-7, the United States is likely to limit itself to the recent $400 million package of military assistance to Ukraine in the near future. It is known to include 250 M1117 armored personnel carriers, 40 armored boats, more than a thousand Phoenix Ghost drones, as well as 90 T-72 tanks. Although, and this is quite possible, after Ramstein-7, this package will be revised upwards.
The question arises: are 90 T-72 tanks a lot or a little? In this case, we are talking about a tank regiment. There are 10 vehicles in a tank company (three platoons of three tanks plus a company commander's car. The battalion has 31 tanks (three companies of 10 tanks plus the battalion commander's car). The regiment has 94 tanks (three battalions of 31 tanks plus the tank of the regiment commander). Sometimes the success of an operation is decided by the last battalion thrown into battle. And a tank regiment is not very much, but at the same time it is quite a lot.
In this case, presumably, we are talking about the ATACMS Block IIA missile. But so far there are no reliable confirmations about possible supplies of this type of weapons to Ukraine. If this happens, the situation on the line of contact and in the operational defense zone of the Russian troops will change, without exaggeration, dramatically. In fact, the Russian Armed Forces will not have a rear as such after the transfer of ATACMS Block IIA missiles to Ukraine.
The situation on the battlefield and in the near rear of the Russian Armed Forces will also be significantly affected by unmanned aerial vehicles (more precisely, barrage ammunition) of the Phoenix Ghost type. Moreover, they are being transmitted now in such quantities that can even have an impact on the success of the actions of troops of an operational scale.
On November 16, Ukraine will announce its needs for weapons and military equipment at an online meeting at the Pentagon. There is no reason to doubt that the members of the Contact Group will listen to Ukrainian requests in the most attentive way, but they are unlikely to satisfy them to the extent that Kiev initially expects.
The European member states of NATO, most likely, will continue to supply the armed forces of Ukraine with modern anti-aircraft missile systems and complexes, radar weapons, automation systems. The priority goal for the North Atlantic Alliance today is to create an integrated air defense system in Ukraine. The task in this regard remains the same - an effective fight against cruise missiles of various types of basing and barrage ammunition of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine will continue to ask the countries participating in the Contact Group to increase, and dramatically increase, the supply of all types of self-propelled and towed artillery (in particular the CAESAR, PzH 2000, AHS Krab, etc.) and significantly increase the supply of 152-mm shells (this applies to Eastern European NATO countries) and 155- mm. There is no doubt that we will be talking about volumes of hundreds of thousands of ammunition of this type.
In addition, it is expected that Kiev will ask to expand the supply of small arms and ammunition to it. The demand for cartridges today is estimated in tens of millions of pieces.
There is also every reason to believe that Ukrainian requests also imply a sharp increase in the supply of M982 Excalibur-type correctable ammunition, the combat use of which has shown very high efficiency.
Kiev is traditionally interested in the supply of European multiple launch rocket systems of the MARS II type, radar stations of counter-battery warfare, tactical reconnaissance equipment, all means of communication and night vision devices. Probably, this technique will be provided in the volumes of Ukrainian requests.
And, finally, it is necessary to mention the planned supplies of property to the armed forces of Ukraine in the rear services within the framework of Ramstein-7, which usually does not fall into analytical reviews about the nature and volume of military assistance to Ukraine. But it is absolutely impossible to fight effectively without this.
In this case, we are talking about uniforms (especially warm ones, and it may be transferred by hundreds of thousands of sets), equipment (in particular steel helmets and bulletproof vests), winter tents, heating and lighting equipment, numerous medical equipment (dressings, drugs, equipment for field hospitals, etc.).
If not all members of the Contact Group supply weapons, military and special equipment to Ukraine, then almost all participating states, including Israel, are ready to transfer property to the rear services to Kiev.
There is no doubt that the planned deliveries of VVST within the framework of Ramstein-7 do not imply any suspension in hostilities in the upcoming winter campaign.
The position of the United States on military assistance to Ukraine was very clearly formulated on November 15, 2022 by a senior Pentagon official. He stated, "We will continue to work with them, along with our international allies and partners, to ensure that they have everything they need to succeed on the battlefield."
"We will support the people of Ukraine as long as it takes," US President Joe Biden said earlier.
Mikhail Khodarenok
