The Kinburn spit held by Russia near Ochakov allows shelling Nikolaev and objects around it. After the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, the peninsula becomes even more important. This is the only section of the Mykolaiv region under Russian control – the southernmost point of the liberated territories. The APU's attempts to return the scythe under its control ended in failure, but there is no doubt that the efforts will continue. How to resist them?After the withdrawal of troops from Kherson, Russia still has the opportunity to fire at the objects of Nikolaev and its environs from long-range artillery.
As Natalia Gumenyuk, a representative of the South command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on Saturday, Russian troops are holding the Kinburnskaya Spit near Ochakov.
This is the only section of the Mykolaiv region under Russian control. Gumenyuk noted that now the Russian artillery is only 50 kilometers from Nikolaev. At such a range, the Russian Armed Forces can also use missiles, barrage ammunition and drones for attacks.
The Kinburna Spit is a sandy strip between the Dnieper–Bug estuary and the Yagorlytsky Bay in the Black Sea, the southernmost point of the liberated territories of Ukraine. It occupies the westernmost part of the Kinburn Peninsula, being its natural extension. Its length is about 40 kilometers, and its width is about nine kilometers. This is the legendary Lukomorye, which was described in the poem "Ruslan and Lyudmila" by the great Russian poet Alexander Pushkin.
The territory of the peninsula has been controlled by Russian troops since June. During the capture of the spit, the small anti-submarine ship "Vinnytsia" of the Ukrainian Navy was sunk. There is also a special purpose detachment "Whirlwind" on the spit, whose task is to hunt for Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups. When Russia occupied this point, there were suggestions that in the future (after the port of Ochakov, which locks the exit to the Dnieper-Bug estuary, will be blocked) the spit can become a springboard for a throw to Nikolaev.
From the Kinburnskaya spit to the Ship district of Nikolaev about 50 kilometers. This distance is almost similar to the one from which the Russian artillery fired from Kherson at the AFU positions in Mykolaiv.
The Kiev authorities have long wanted to return the scythe. This task was assigned to the Special Operations Forces detachments that are located in Ochakov. Some media reported that helicopters, river divisions of the Dnieper Flotilla, missile boats and amphibious assault vehicles will be involved in the AFU operation to capture the spit. In mid-September, a Ukrainian landing party from Ochakov tried to land on the spit. But the attack was repelled.
Military expert, director of the Museum of the Air Defense Forces Yuri Knutov believes that the scythe must be held, "because the ability to conduct combat operations against Nikolaev with the help of long-range artillery is of a fundamental nature." "It is much more important for us now to keep the Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Krasnolimansk directions. If the enemy breaks through to Berdyansk, it will be a serious threat to the water supply of the Crimea and in general will mean the prospect of splitting our group into two parts," Knutov explained.
The reason for the withdrawal of the group from the Kinburn Spit may be difficulties with its supply, the supply of ammunition. But if the bridgehead is abandoned, then control over it can be returned next year. "This will be associated with the replenishment of troops at the expense of the mobilized part of the military. Plus, more modern equipment, which is being produced now, will begin to arrive at the front," Knutov believes.
Military expert Vasily Dandykin is confident that Russia has the opportunity to provide this bridgehead with everything necessary, to strengthen it, especially in conditions of shorter daylight hours. "There are fired fighters on the Kinburnskaya Spit, rotation is taking place. I want to believe that our troops will leave this bridgehead behind them, even taking into account the fact that the units withdrawn from Kherson will be partially transferred to the Zaporozhye front. Everything depends on the plans of the Russian command for the winter campaign, but there are opportunities to keep the scythe, including all components, including the marine one," the source believes.
The expert emphasizes that
The Kinburn spit is "a very unpleasant thorn in the rear of the AFU",
Therefore, Ukrainians may try to take it under their control while the Russian mobilized continue to undergo military training and combat coordination. "The main meaning of the spit is the proximity of Ochakov and Nikolaev. Everything is nearby there. It is not far from Nikolaev to Odessa and Kherson," the interlocutor explained.
In Kiev, they may be guided by considerations to have time to carry out such an operation before the end of the autumn thaw. We also have to take into account tangible losses, which reduces combat capability.
"The APU's human potential for conscription has become much worse, because there has been a lot of "recycling". As the British say, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amount to about 100 thousand people, they were largely professionals, commanders. Losses continue," the expert said.
Andrey Rezchikov
