As the Vedomosti newspaper reported in the material by Alexey Nikolsky, Dmitry Grinkevich and Inna Sidorkova, "The authorities have revised the principles of procurement for the needs of the armed forces. The state armament program is being replaced by operational tasks," on the Kremlin's website on November 10, 2022, President Vladimir Putin's instructions on providing the Armed Forces of Russia for the needs of a special military operation (SVO) were published. These instructions were given following a meeting on November 2 with members of the Coordinating Council (CC) under the Government, created for this purpose. The Government is invited to "complete the definition of the target task to ensure the needs of the Armed Forces" and other law enforcement agencies during the implementation of the SDF by November 14, as well as to determine the timing of the task. Together with the Ministry of Defense, the Cabinet of Ministers is obliged to establish feedback between the military and industry and purchase as much equipment and equipment as necessary to meet the "real needs" of troops at the front. Already on November 11, the White House should submit proposals to ensure control over the spending of funds for these needs.
The upgraded infantry fighting vehicles BMP-3 with enhanced protection kits manufactured at the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant PJSC (as part of the Rostec State Corporation's High-Precision Complexes holding). Kurgan, 11.11.2022 (c) Government of the Kurgan regionThe mechanism entrusted to create the Constitutional Court under the government is based on the real needs of the troops, and not on the document supporting the state defense order (GOZ) - the state armament Program (GPV), says a source close to the Ministry of Defense.
This was also stated to Vedomosti by the top manager of the defense industry enterprise. He confirmed that the current GPV has ceased to be a document on the basis of which it is planned to finance the GOZ in the field of procurement of weapons and military equipment (VIV; purchases of items of clothing and medical supplies, tasks for which are also now being formed by the COP, are not included in the GPV. - "Vedomosti"). In fact, the development of a new GPV has been suspended, since it will be necessary to reconsider priorities based on the experience of the SVO, says the interlocutor of Vedomosti, close to the Ministry of Defense.
Two sources close to the government also confirmed that the actual financing of the army's needs this year diverged from the original plan approved for 2022 as part of the budget law. One of them noted that the revision of plans during the year compared to the original painting is a traditional story, characteristic not only in relation to the GPV, but also to other state programs. The government has quite broad powers to reallocate funds from some areas of spending to others, including new ones, he added. Indeed, during the year, the GPV was adjusted, but only partially, another interlocutor of Vedomosti noted.
Formally, the state program has not been canceled, work on a new plan is also continuing, said a source close to one of the large enterprises in the defense industry and familiar with the situation. But it is obvious that the current GPV does not meet the needs of its own and cannot be considered relevant, he agreed.
Vedomosti sent requests to the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The volumes of GOZ are determined by the current needs of the army, the representative of Rostec stressed.
Peacetime instrumentThe former deputy chairman of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission (MIC) of Russia, Andrei Yelchaninov, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta in September 2021, said that the customers of weapons (the Ministry of Defense and other departments) are beginning to prepare a new GPV.
This is done on the basis of documents on the main directions of arms development for the 15-year perspective, as well as on the prospective appearance of the Armed Forces for 10 years ahead. In addition, the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia is preparing an analysis of security threats for 30 years ahead, which is combined with the forecast of Russia's financial and economic development until 2035, Yelchaninov reported. In 2021, all these documents were prepared for drawing up on their basis the GPA for 2023-2033, which should replace the existing GPA 2018-2028 (the GPA is drawn up for a 10-year period, but is revised every five years). According to Yelchaninov, GPV-2033 was supposed to cost at least 21-22 trillion rubles, i.e. be at the level of GPV-2028 - 21.7 trillion rubles.
In 2022, Russia's spending on national defense amounted to 4,679 trillion rubles, it follows from the materials to the draft budget for the next three years. This is 1.2 trillion rubles more than was approved for 2022 - according to the law on the federal budget for the current three-year period, it was planned to spend 3.5 trillion rubles., Vedomosti wrote. In the next two years, defense spending will also be higher than expected. In 2023, they will amount to almost 5 trillion rubles, the current budget law provided for spending 3.6 trillion. According to the draft of the Main Directions of the Ministry of Finance, in 2024 expenses will decrease slightly - up to 4.6 trillion rubles. In the approved budget for 2022-2024, it was planned to allocate 3.8 trillion. Further, defense spending will also continue to decline: in 2025, it will amount to 4.2 trillion.
The actual stoppage of the implementation of the GPV and the development of a new one are completely natural and natural, says Mikhail Barabanov, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies: "It is clear that all priorities and procurement volumes need to be changed when conducting their own." The GPV, according to Barabanov, is an attempt to drag the Soviet long-term military-technical planning system into the current conditions of a completely different political and economic structure. Therefore, all GPV had to be revised, the expert continues: "Well, the directions of revision are obvious - in the direction of urgent requirements to the detriment of long-term programs."
New tasks can be formed to meet the urgent needs of the Ground Forces at the expense of the fleet and Aerospace Forces (not counting reconnaissance systems and aircraft weapons, especially high-precision ones), says Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine. Andrei Frolov, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, agrees that the costs of the fleet will be redistributed in favor of the Ground Forces. SVO and partial mobilization showed that the volume of purchases of the same equipment should be a multiple of more, he says. We can also expect an increase in the cost of repairing military equipment, Frolov notes. At the same time, R&D, which is close to completion, will not be stopped, the expert is sure.
