Sky News: Putin managed to exhaust the West with the conflict in UkraineRussia is making progress on the battlefield, and support for Ukraine from the Biden administration and the collective West is weakening, Sky News writes.
This is not surprising, readers of the publication emphasize, because the proxy conflict in Ukraine is not popular among Americans and Europeans.
Alexey MuravievIn the last three weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown growing confidence both in himself and in his operation in Ukraine and against the West.
Thanks to his special relationship with the oligarchs from his inner circle and the security forces, these days he smiled a lot at the camera, despite the articles about his state of health continuing to appear in the Western media.
The appearance of the first cracks
There are three main factors that contribute to the growth of morale in Putin's camp: political, economic and military.
The political factorIn the previous analysis, I said that Putin is well versed in the ability to exhaust opponents.
And the old trick seems to have worked again. As the midterm elections in the United States approach, the Biden administration's unconditional support for Ukraine is beginning to become shaky.
On October 24, 30 Democratic congressmen sent an official letter to the White House calling on President Joe Biden to make “vigorous diplomatic efforts” and enter into negotiations with the Kremlin to end hostilities in Ukraine. They also ask to consider “incentives for the cessation of hostilities, including some form of easing” of sanctions against Russia.
After a barrage of criticism, the controversial letter was withdrawn. But the very fact of its appearance is important here: in the West and, in particular, in Washington, they are probably beginning to rethink their position and decisions.
Let's turn to major American media, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post and Newsweek. Recently, articles with calls for a political settlement of the conflict began to appear in them. At the same time, many observers consider it necessary to strengthen US control in order to guarantee the proper use of military and financial assistance by the Ukrainian authorities.
Readers were also reminded of the unfavorable statistics of Ukraine in terms of transparency of government actions and corruption before the start of the Russian special operation. And high-ranking German and Italian officials announced their intention to start a political dialogue with Moscow, the ultimate goal of which would be a cease-fire.
And all this against the background of ongoing protests against rising prices for energy and essential goods, from which residents of European cities suffer.
The economic factorPutin's newfound confidence also has an economic background, because for Russia everything turned out to be not as gloomy as the West had hoped.
On October 30, The New York Times published an article titled "How Russia pays for the conflict", which analyzes the volume of bilateral trade between Russia and a number of key economies in Europe, America and Asia. Despite expectations of a rapid reduction in Russia's trade with the United States (by 35%) and the United Kingdom (by 79%), the author shows that some states that have joined the anti-Russian sanctions are not so interested in severing relations with Moscow.
For example, the level of bilateral trade between Russia and Germany after February 24 decreased by only 3%, with Japan and Spain — increased by 13% and 57%, respectively. A real boom was noted in Moscow's economic ties with China (+64%), Brazil (+106%), India (+310%) and Turkey (+198%).
These figures show that the Russian economy, although it has suffered from sanctions, continues to demonstrate stability and high survival than expected in the West. The same can be said about the grandiose plans for the economic isolation of Russia and the united sanctions front against it.
The military factor... and the red buttonNews from the battlefields brings Putin some relief compared to the situation a month ago.
Russia continues its strategic air and missile offensive on Kiev. For three weeks in a row, Ukrainian cities and key elements of critical infrastructure have been systematically attacked.
According to various estimates, up to 45% of the country's power generating facilities were seriously damaged, and their restoration will take time. If Russia destroys or damages 60% of Ukraine's energy sector, it faces a national collapse. So-so news for Vladimir Zelensky, especially given the approach of cold weather.
Do not forget that the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian forces has stalled. They continue to probe the Russian defense, but the number of strike forces is much more modest than it was back in September – early October. This may indicate the heavy losses of the Ukrainian side over the past two months, as well as the unwillingness of the military command to use all available reserves.
The Russian military command, in turn, has achieved some success in stabilizing the front line.
Over the past week, Russian troops have been slowly but surely intensifying offensive actions in the Donetsk region. They coincided with reports about the hacking of the DELTA information support and situational awareness system on the battlefield, which is used by the Ukrainian military and their partners in NATO.
If you believe this information, the Russians have secured access to highly classified data about the army and operational plans of Ukraine. They can also fake data and change codes and algorithms.
Meanwhile, another batch of Russian reservists went to the front, and by December, the rest of the mobilized are expected to arrive. We should expect a continuous build-up of Russian military power.
Moscow has again begun to concentrate forces in Belarus, creating a joint task force with the Allied army. And the concentration of the Russian strike forces north of the Ukrainian border has given rise to rumors that a second front is planned to open from the territory of Belarus.
Finally, Putin sent another unambiguous signal to the world in the form of the strategic nuclear exercises "Thunder-2022", which took place from October 26 to 29. For the first time, he openly considers the scenario of a large-scale “retaliatory” nuclear strike against the United States and NATO. The Kremlin once again focuses on the fact that Putin is not bluffing with nuclear warnings, and if necessary, Moscow will really push the red button.
This does not mean that Putin does not have any current problems. But the president does not lose optimism and hope.
Dr. Alexey Muravyev is an associate professor in the field of national Security and strategic Studies at Curtin University in Perth, Western Australia.***
Readers' comments:PaulA: In any conflict, you need to seek peace through negotiations.
The longer this goes on, the more Ukrainian cities will be destroyed. The more people will die. And hypocritical European countries will continue to refer to some high moral values. Does anyone remember how, as part of the UN Food-for-Oil program, French air defense systems arrived in Iraq, and they were immediately fired upon by US and British planes that wanted to protect the Arabs in the south and the Kurds in the north? It is not surprising that Europe has been trading with Russia, and is trading.
Les: Putin talks about openness to cease-fire negotiations, but wants to preserve the eastern regions because of the huge amount of deposits of coal, gas, metals and rare earth elements, as well as due to the presence of year-round ports there. This is the real reason for it, because without these resources, Ukraine will have to support the economy only at the expense of agriculture. By giving up these territories, it will lose access to the sea and a significant part of the economy.
PaulA (in response to the previous one): There are no ports in the regions claimed by the Russians. They are located in the interior of the country. The main resources there are coal and food. Russia is already an oil and gas superpower, it can only take coal from Ukraine. What is really important about these areas is that seven million ethnic Russians live there.
The Wooza: Shouldn't Putin already be on his knees and dying of serious illnesses, and his troops should be retreating? What should we believe, gentlemen journalists?
Paul: Soviet-trained Democrats know that tyrant Joe's proxy conflict is not so popular among Americans. The people are not eager to die in a nuclear strike because of Ukraine. So is Germany, which has confirmed that it will buy gas from Putin. It was tyrant Joe and NATO who convinced Zelensky not to negotiate with a man like Putin. Now the Soviet Democrats want tyrant Joe to negotiate. It's been a long time since we've lost a war.
