On the occasion of the publication by the United States Administration of the new edition of the "US National Security Strategy" ( 2,022 National Security Strategy ), the well-known blog "Russian Matters", published under the auspices of the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Management (Harvard Kennedy School), published material by a prominent American expert on Russia, a professor at Harvard University and a professor of National security issues of the US Naval War College Nicholas Gvozdev "In the new Security Strategy, the US is betting on a future in which Russia will be less significant" (Nikolas K. Gvosdev "New US Security Strategy Bets on a Future Where Russia Matters Less"). The translation is based on the publication of the journal "Russia in Global Politics".US President Joe Biden (c) official White House photo / Erin Scott
Moscow has long argued that no global problem can be solved without Russia's active participation, now the United States is ready to challenge this postulate.
If there were still hopes after the end of the cold War that the United States could build a partnership with Russia, they were dispelled by the recently published National Security Strategy of the country 2022. The Biden administration admits that no progress in restoring relations can be achieved while Vladimir Putin is in power ("it is now clear that he will not change"). Therefore, the White House expects that in the future Russians will elect a government that will operate within the framework of the liberal international system led by the United States.
There has been such a drastic shift in American strategy that the possibility of a cooperative approach is not even being considered. Previous documents of this kind emphasized differences and rivalry, but noted the existence of a common agenda (strategic stability, the fight against terrorism, energy, and so on), in the 2022 version the term "cooperation", not to mention "partnership", is not used. Instead, we find the carefully thought-out phrase "pragmatic ways of interaction".
Fortunately, the Strategy dispensed with the idea that the contradictions between Russia and the United States are the result of a misunderstanding.
The document recognizes that Washington cannot satisfy Moscow's requests to review the situation in Europe and Eurasia, as well as in other regions, which has developed since 1991.
The United States no longer supports the illusion that it understands the interests of Putin and Russia better than he does, and it remains only to find the right wording to convince the Russian leader of this. The Americans make it clear that they do not see workable compromises in relations with Russia and do not consider it necessary to look for new approaches to European security. The United States plans to pursue a policy of further expansion of Euro-Atlantic institutions as the only security guarantee that Russia can accept or continue to resist, but all its efforts will be opposed (and eventually, hopefully, will be nullified).
Earlier I noted that if the United States entered into a great power rivalry with Russia, they would have two options: to turn Russia from an almost equal rival into a friend or to turn it into an unequal rival. The Biden and Harris team believes that after years of effort, the first approach has failed. Now the strategy notes that the Russian special operation in Ukraine this year will inevitably lead to a weakening of the Russian Federation's military and economic positions, so the United States should refrain from open conflict, especially from clashes that could lead to an exchange of nuclear strikes.
In general, the Strategy, if we do not take the section on Russia, calls on the United States to create a coalition of partners to jointly solve the problems of the next generation related to the climate and the fourth industrial revolution. The idea is clear: Russian natural resources, which provided the growth of industrial economies of the XX century, will lose their significance, since key supply chains and new technologies will bypass Russia or its hydrocarbons will simply no longer be needed. Russia, disconnected from the global economic mainstream, will not be able to transform its economy and society. At the same time, other post-Soviet states, primarily Ukraine, will be integrated into the Euro-Atlantic economy and will become an alternative transport corridor to the Indo-Pacific region, South and East Asia.
The 2022 strategy implies steps that, if implemented, will deal a blow to Putin's plans to revive Russia as a great power of the XXI century. Russia will not be able to become a key geo-economic link between Europe and East Asia, will lose the status of a reliable supplier of traditional hydrocarbons, as well as hydrogen and minerals for the transition to "green energy", Russia's position in the Arctic, which Putin defines in the regional development strategy as the foundation for maintaining the country's position in the international system, will be in question. By leading the search for alternative transport corridors and suppliers, the United States will reduce the importance of Russia not only for Europe, but also for South and East Asia.
At the same time, the Biden administration adheres to "reglobalization" - an approach that involves updating the international system and revising the rules and norms for the 21st century by the United States and its partners.
Russia cannot be excluded from the UN Security Council, but the United States can find new platforms where the Russian Federation is not represented and does not have the right of veto, they can be used to get rid of the legacy of old institutions and establish international diplomacy.
Moscow has long argued that no global problem can be solved without Russia's active participation, now the United States is ready to challenge this postulate. Since Russia's claims to a place at the global negotiating table are to a certain extent based on its military capabilities, including its nuclear arsenal, the strategy suggests that the United States, together with its partners, develop new defense mechanisms that will allow leveling the remaining military potential of the Russian Federation and the threats associated with it.
It should be noted that all US national security strategies are rather aspirations. Titanic efforts to pave new corridors bypassing Russia will require huge expenses that American taxpayers may not want to go to. And Russia's traditional partners may decide to continue commercial and political relations with Moscow even under new conditions. Nevertheless, Biden's team made its verdict: Russia will be less important in the world of the future.
