The Russian Foreign Ministry warned about the possibility of a strike on US satellites that are involved in the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow offers the United States and other countries of the world to agree on the demilitarization of outer space, but on a reciprocal basis. What kind of satellite systems are we talking about? And why can such a step on the part of Russia have not only positive, but also negative consequences? The day before, Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Foreign Ministry, said that US commercial satellites, if they are involved in the conflict in Ukraine, could become legitimate targets for a strike.
The diplomat said this at a meeting of the First Committee of the UN General Assembly.
"As a result of the actions of the West, the sustainability of peaceful space activities, as well as numerous socio-economic processes on earth, on which the well–being of people depends, primarily in developing countries, are exposed to unjustified risks," Vorontsov said.
At the same time, Russia invited all States to discuss space security. According to Moscow, the countries of the world should agree not to deploy any types of weapons in space, as well as not to use space objects for military purposes. In addition, Moscow proposes to abandon the development of anti-satellite weapons, but on a reciprocal basis.
At the same time, earlier American president Elon Musk stated that Russia is "trying to kill" the Starlink satellite Internet system over Ukraine, which is critically important for the local army and armed formations.
In addition, in 2020, there was a big discussion between Russia and the United States on the topic of security in space. So, in April, Washington accused Moscow of testing an anti-satellite direct interception missile (DA-ASAT). However, this is not just an anti-satellite missile, but a whole system of echeloned anti-missile defense (ABM) A-235 "Nudol", which is designed to protect the Russian capital.
In response to the US accusations, Moscow urged Washington not to invent excuses for ignoring Russia's proposals not to be the first to deploy weapons in space. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the US refusal to engage in dialogue with Russia may mean that "they have set a course to create strike systems for deployment in outer space."
Later in December 2020, the United States again announced Russia's tests of an anti-satellite missile. According to Washington, Russia is developing two types of such weapons – DA-ASAT, allegedly capable of destroying satellites in low Earth orbit and space-based systems that have been tested several times, as well as allegedly tested in 2017 and 2020.
At the same time, as the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote earlier, the Americans accused Russia of what they had previously done themselves in the field of anti-satellite defense . For example, in 2008, they shot down an emergency American spy satellite USA-193 using an SM-3 rocket launched from the cruiser Lake Airy in the Pacific Ocean. The target was hit at an altitude of 246 km.
In addition, SM-3 anti-missiles can intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) not only on the average, as the United States says, but also on the initial part of the flight.
A year earlier, China launched a similar attack on its old meteorological satellite Fengyun-1C. The satellite was shot down at a much higher altitude – about 800 km, and its debris, having turned into space debris, began to pose a danger to other satellites.
Thus, as experts noted, Russia is not doing anything that has not already been done by other military space powers.
On the other hand, the United States has continued to militarize space all this time, including hiding behind the work of industry commercial companies, be it Maxar Technologies or SpaceX. Moreover, the capacities of these companies were used in the interests of the Pentagon before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, both in matters of intelligence and in matters of satellite communications.
The same company Maxar, for example, in June of this year refused to disclose details of its military cooperation with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As RIA Novosti later found out, Maxar Technologies has a 10-year contract with the US National Directorate of Military Space Intelligence (NRO), one of the Pentagon structures, for up to $ 3.24 billion. The contract represents "the largest commercial image acquisition agreement ever entered into by the NRO."
In addition to Maxar, another important space component used in the framework of the conflict in Ukraine is Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network. "This system is extremely important for the APU. Satellites allow them to receive intelligence information in real time and bring it to the performers, control drones. The use of this system for military purposes is certainly an important factor that requires counteraction on our part," corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh told the newspaper VIEW.
According to him, now a little more than a thousand Starlink satellites have been put into orbit. "It is unlikely to be possible to shoot them down with traditional means and an anti-satellite missile due to their huge number. It is necessary to develop new means and ways to combat such goals," the expert believes.
Maxim Tsukanov, an expert in the field of space, the head of the Soviet Space community, holds a different point of view. He recalled that Russia, as already mentioned above, tested an anti-satellite direct interception missile in 2020. "In addition, we have anti-satellite aircraft developed in Soviet times. The bottom line is that the plane enters the stratosphere, launches a rocket that reaches the enemy satellite and destroys the target," Tsukanov said.
"It is obvious that now the satellites of the United States and its allies are helping the Armed Forces by transmitting the exact coordinates for strikes. Moreover, a new method of warfare is being used in Ukraine,
when the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, controlled via a satellite system, strikes at nearby targets. The navigation and satellite system and communication system allows the Ukrainian military to speed up the process of targeting and striking. Therefore, the destruction of satellites operating over Ukraine will reduce the number of enemy strikes on our infrastructure and cities," the source said.
However, the destruction of satellites also has negative consequences. Among them, for example, the formation of space debris, the expert continued. "If the satellites are low enough, in a stationary orbit, then it does not have any terrible consequences. The debris of the satellites will simply burn up in the layers of the atmosphere," Tsukanov pointed out.
"It's another matter if the satellites are slightly higher. In this case, there is a possibility of creating uncontrolled movement of space debris. If the cloud of space debris increases exponentially as neighboring satellites are destroyed with the help of debris, then the orbit will be uninhabitable for human flights," the source added.
Moreover, the use of weapons in space against spacecraft would be a violation of international law, Bartosz recalled in turn. "We have so far refrained from destroying American satellites. But it is possible that the situation may develop differently in the future," the military expert believes.
In addition, there have already been cases of satellites being shot down in history. "Military exercises to destroy satellites were conducted by the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia," Tsukanov recalled. – It did not lead to terrible consequences. And now, if the military leadership of our country makes such a decision, all possible consequences will be taken into account."
At the same time, military expert Alexei Leonkov believes that there are two ways to prevent the work of American satellites in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Devices responsible for communication, for example, Starlink, can be suppressed using electronic warfare systems. The same applies to remote sensing satellites, that is, remote sensing of the earth, which take pictures of the earth's surface in high resolution, and from these images it is possible to determine the location of troops.
"If after that the owners of commercial satellites do not come to their senses, then they can be shot down.
Such strikes would be justified. If we disable only commercial satellites, then the United States as a state is unlikely to respond with retaliatory strikes, because the West is distancing itself from a direct military conflict with Russia. And Elon Max didn't just complain that we were trying to "kill" his companions. There was no reaction from Washington to this," Leonkov notes.
In addition, according to the expert, the demilitarization of space is possible only on a mutual basis, and the contracting parties should be not only the United States and Russia, but also other countries that are currently actively developing their space programs. At the same time, Moscow's actions in this direction are exclusively defensive in nature.
Ivan Moiseev, the scientific director of the Space Policy Institute, is much more skeptical about this issue. "Yes, there is a rocket that we have tested at least once. It is able to reach low-flying satellites. But there are thousands of these satellites, and we have only dozens of such rockets," he says.
Moiseev also admits a military response from the United States even if the Russian Armed Forces shoot down commercial satellites. "The Americans will interpret this as a military attack. At the same time, their satellites are more powerful than ours, it just so happened. Therefore, if we shoot down at least one American satellite, they will shoot down several of ours at once. Therefore, this complex of problems must be solved in some other way and not in space," Moiseev warns.
Anastasia Kulikova
