China increases arms exports to the Middle East and North AfricaChina is expanding the export of weapons and military equipment to the Middle East and North Africa, taking advantage of the fact that Russia is focused on conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, and the bans of the US Congress restrict the export of American weapons to some countries in the Middle East region.
"China is becoming the preferred supplier of secondary weapons (from the presence of troops. – V.I.) for many countries in the Middle East. The Chinese have worked hard to create a global market for their weapons, offering customers around the world competitive prices for both equipment and maintenance, as well as a wide potential for modernization of weapons systems," said Nicholas Heras, deputy director of the Human Security Department at the Newlines Institute of Strategy and Policy (think tank of the American Fairfax Institute, working in Washington).
CHINESE APPROACHES TO ARMS EXPORTSThe combination of price and industrial potential are important advantages of Chinese IWT for Beijing's overseas customers.
For customers from the Middle East, the import of Chinese military hardware can reduce their political dependence on the United States and Europe, providing relatively inexpensive opportunities to replenish their arsenals.
Nicholas Heras notes that "the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation has allowed China to fill the vacuum of weapons around the world, not just in the Middle East." According to him, "before Russia's special operation in Ukraine, China was already increasing its market share in the Middle East, and this trend seems to be intensifying in the future."
In 2022, as part of two landmark deals, China sold Chengdu J-10C fighters of national production to Pakistan, and its FK–3 anti-aircraft missile systems, an export version of the HQ-22 system, to Serbia. But despite these deals, Beijing is still having problems with market penetration of high-quality, prestigious weapons systems, which include various types of aircraft, as well as defeat protection systems.
Chinese manufacturers of high-quality military equipment face a lack of trust combined with a lack of field testing in conflict zones. "American, European, Russian and even Turkish weapons systems have more experience in this regard," Nicholas Heras notes. He states that China is currently increasing its share in the arms sales market in the Middle East. But to really break into the elite weapons market, it will take a real war using high-quality Chinese weapons that have surpassed competitors.
COMPETITION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE MIDDLE EAST MARKETAccording to Ryan Ball, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Strafor, even before the conflict, Russia was the main arms exporter to the wider Middle East and North Africa region.
"For countries that buy Russian equipment, such as Egypt, Algeria and Turkey, switching to Chinese military equipment may not be preferable in all cases, as this will require retraining and new integration with these platforms. Small arms and relatively simple systems are easier to replace, although in the case of Egypt and Turkey, they would prefer to use NATO or local equipment rather than switch to China," the researcher believes.
Algeria has always been a major importer of Russian military hardware for decades. And therefore, it is likely to feel some slowdown in Russian supply chains more acutely than other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. But, according to Ryan Ball, this does not mean that Algeria will turn to Beijing in search of military equipment. "Algeria may want to buy some Chinese equipment, but even in this case it will have to integrate it into its armed forces for a long time," the expert on the region sums up.
According to his forecasts, China is likely to turn its attention to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf for the sale of high-class weapons. Especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, since these states have huge financial resources and are seeking to diversify their military arsenals.
And here Beijing should expect significant limitations on what it can actually achieve. "Since, according to available information, the United States is now offering new types of security agreements with these states, and China is still far from replacing the United States as a guarantor of security in the region, the purchases they are making are likely to be symbolic and not aimed at antagonizing the United States," – believes Ryan Ball.
The Arabs will also need to take into account both the American CAATSA law (the law on countering America's adversaries through sanctions) and the time to prepare for the transition to Chinese systems. "Moreover, buying arms from the US also buys influence in Washington, helping to strengthen US defense ties with the Gulf Arabs to protect them from Iran. Regardless of how many Chinese weapons they buy, Beijing is unlikely to be able to protect the Arab states of the Persian Gulf from Iran," the expert believes.
COMPETITION BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES IN THE MIDDLE EAST MARKETAhmed Abuduh, a program officer at the Atlantic Council for the Middle East (an American think tank at NATO), believes that China's arms sales to the Middle East "are still overshadowed by huge arms purchases from the United States and other Western powers."
Nevertheless, Beijing's sales have been gradually growing over the past few years. Ahmed Abuduh believes that there are two main reasons for this growth: "Firstly, they come without any political commitments, especially regarding the status of democracy and human rights in these countries. Secondly, they provide the states of the region with affordable high-tech weapons and military equipment, some of them are considered the equivalent of American weapons systems."
Abudukh also believes that the events in Ukraine are unlikely to benefit Chinese arms exports to the Middle East. "The reason is that buying weapons from China for many countries in the Middle East is a decision directly related to the development of their relations with the United States, and not just related to practical considerations."
China has previously used opportunities in the Middle East to export military hardware to certain countries when the West was reluctant to do so. When the US refused to export drones to its close allies, Beijing intervened and readily sold strike drones to various countries in the region, including the UAE. Chinese-made Wing Loong II drones, in particular, have been used in conflicts in Yemen and Libya.
Judging by the publications, Beijing is also helping Saudi Arabia develop ballistic missiles. He previously sold Riyadh several Dongfeng missiles in 1987 and 2000, and also delivered several short-range ballistic missiles to Qatar. In the 1990s, China helped Turkey develop its ballistic missile program, which allowed Ankara to create a significant arsenal based on Chinese developments.
Before Turkey decided to purchase S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia, it held a tender for $3-4 billion. for a joint project with China to develop a long-range missile defense system (ABM). However, it was eventually cancelled in 2015.
Nevertheless, China has yet to compete to sell J-10C fighters and HQ-22 systems to countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The Arabs seem to be more interested in Chinese drones and air defense systems. And also in China's technical experience to develop its own ballistic missile program.
Since the United States is putting pressure on its Middle Eastern partners to curtail security cooperation with China, including the sale of weapons, the prospect that Chinese experts will help other strategic partners of the United States develop ballistic missiles is unlikely in the foreseeable future, Ahmed Abuduh believes. This is largely due to the desire of influential states in the region "to demonstrate their growing awareness of the sensitivity of the United States to deepening security ties with China" and their desire to avoid negative consequences for further partnership with Washington.
In addition, "this is part of their hedging strategy, which sometimes, in their opinion, can be useful for protecting the Middle East from being drawn into competition between Washington and Beijing." As well as the consequences that the rivalry of the great powers "entails for the future interests of the countries of the Middle East in the field of security and economy."
China's willingness to supply ballistic missiles and sell unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) without strict requirements for their end-use, unlike the United States, gives it an advantage. In these two areas, the strengthening of ties between China and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa in the field of armaments is most likely. Moreover, the United States is currently restrained from imposing CAATSA sanctions (a US federal law imposing sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Russia) against its Middle Eastern allies in connection with the current financial crisis.
But China is not the only player in this area, and it will have to compete with Turkish UAVs, and in some countries with Israeli ones. Thus, there are other countries besides China that are ready to fill the gap.
DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTSChina may benefit somewhat from its competition with Russia after launching a special military operation in Ukraine.
But this is unlikely to lead to a significant increase in sales.
Egypt, which has been purchasing Russian aircraft and other high-quality equipment over the past decade, is at the same time the main recipient of US military aid. This means that he is unlikely to look for opportunities to purchase Chinese Chengdu J-10C fighter jets or other advanced Chinese military equipment for fear of losing American aid.
Algeria may be open to such purchases, since it does not depend on the United States for security or military assistance. While other Arab states of the Persian Gulf (for example, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia) may purchase a symbolic number of Chinese systems to make it clear to Washington that they can diversify their activities if their defense needs are not met by the Americans.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
