Donald Trump admitted that the incidents on the "Northern Streams" could lead to war. Threats of the "collapse of all hell" on Russia for the alleged possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine are also multiplying. Against this background, the probability of a full-scale conflict between the great powers is increasingly being discussed in the world. What are the chances that the development of the geopolitical situation will go according to the worst scenario for the planet?On the eve of the former US President Donald Trump in his social network Truth Social indicated that "everyone is talking about a big hurricane" that hit Florida, but the situation with gas pipelines will have more consequences.
"Perhaps a much more important event in the long term is the announcement that sabotage has been committed against the Nord Stream and Nord Stream–2 pipelines. This could lead to a major escalation or to war," TASS reports Trump's words.
At the same time, the British TV channel Sky News reported that a targeted attack on pipelines could have been carried out by means of underwater explosive devices with remote detonation, which could have been placed next to the "Northern Streams" several months or even years ago.
Against this background, the rhetoric about the possible expansion of the global conflict is increasingly heard. Thus, the Russian ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, in his article for The National Interest magazine, expressed the opinion that Washington's actions "push the situation towards a clash of the largest nuclear powers."
"The obvious fact is the direct involvement of the United States in the military actions of the Kiev regime. Supplies of lethal weapons are openly increasing. Kiev is being supplied with intelligence. There is a joint planning of operations against the Russian Armed Forces. Ukrainians are learning the skills of war on NATO equipment," the diplomat writes.
"The feeling is that Russia is being tested for strength. They want to check how much patience we have not to react to openly hostile actions and attacks," TASS quoted him as saying. In addition, at a meeting of the UN Security Council on Wednesday, Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia "is not able to guarantee the security of the world" and therefore allegedly has no right to possess nuclear weapons.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the US administration has a plan in case Russia uses nuclear weapons. The head of the State Department refused to discuss specific steps, saying that "he will not delve into the question of what the consequences will be." On Thursday, US Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham proposed to regard Russia's alleged possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine as an "attack on NATO as a whole," he called on Congress and US NATO allies to inform Russia that "all hell will fall on it" in this case.
As the Financial Times points out, Ukraine's Western allies have developed plans to respond to the hypothetical possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons, but they are unlikely to be mirrored.
"Against the background of the events in Ukraine and the Baltic, we hear many statements related to the allegedly impending nuclear war. It is clear that the West is trying to actively promote this topic, accusing Russia of being ready to use nuclear weapons. This can be regarded as an attempt to put pressure on Russia, demonize it, and also intimidate its own electorate," Malek Dudakov, an American political scientist, told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"This quite logically fits into the general concept of the West, which consists in, without waiting for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, imposing further sanctions against our country, as well as increasing military pressure by supplying weapons to Ukraine and increasing pressure on the EU energy system," the source believes.
"Of course, this rhetoric is dangerous, it provokes a possible nuclear conflict and fits into the general outline of the Western strategy of the last months and even the last year. I don't want to say that a global nuclear conflict is possible, but the efforts made by Western countries lead to the fact that its probability is constantly growing," he said.
"Unfortunately, we cannot completely rule out the possibility of a global conflict," agrees Andrei Kortunov, a political scientist and director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, in a conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"The current global crisis is developing in several directions at once. Sabotage on the "Northern Streams", of course, is one of its elements. At the same time, this is a very complex and ambiguous situation. The damaged sections of the gas pipeline are not in the combat zone of the Ukrainian conflict," he argues.
"In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, there are other hotbeds of tension in the world – for example, the situation around Taiwan and Sino-American relations against this background, as well as conflicts in the Middle East," the source continued.
"Therefore, there is now more and more talk about the threat of a nuclear conflict. In addition, Western countries use the alleged threat to justify an increase in military budgets," the expert is convinced.
Commenting on the issue of depriving Russia of nuclear weapons discussed the day before in the UN Security Council, Kortunov noted that "in order to deprive Russia of nuclear weapons, our country must first be disarmed in principle, which is absolutely impossible."
"Ukraine, of course, is concerned about the possibility of using nuclear weapons on its territory, but there are a lot of other countries in the world that would like to deprive Russia of the status of a nuclear power. For them, this is certainly an additional inconvenience factor. Russia, possessing such weapons and being a superpower, can restrain other nuclear countries. It is almost impossible to change this," Kortunov is convinced.
"The situation has long developed into a new global conflict leading to the redistribution of the existing world. And today, some see the future in a multipolar world, while others see it divided into the American and Chinese spheres of influence. That is, the world can become bipolar, as during the Cold War," German political scientist Alexander Rahr told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"The reality is that in the new geopolitical and economic confrontation, Europe and Russia are catastrophically weakening each other with sanctions. And the US and China are seriously strengthening at this time," the interlocutor noted.
The expert also did not rule out the end of the "UN era and the historical role played by the Security Council there." "In the event of a global confrontation between the US and the EU against China and Russia, the current UN faces the fate of the League of Nations. The world powers will not be able and will not want to negotiate on world issues anymore. Each side will only strive to win by force over the enemy," he concluded.
At the same time, the program director of the Valdai Club, Timofey Bordachev, is much more optimistic. "Firstly, it's no secret that Donald Trump is famous for his loud statements and ability to dramatize what is happening. That is why journalists love him so much, which he knows very well," Bordachev told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"Secondly, it seems to me that within the framework of any military-political conflict, the parties are trying to probe on what conditions the opponent will go for a peaceful settlement. And now we are witnessing another example of such mutual probing. And first of all from the West," the interlocutor noted.
The political scientist also ruled out the possibility of a transition to the "worst-case scenario". "Only an immediate threat to the national territories of Russia or the United States can lead to a global conflict. This was the case in 1962, when the Americans put missiles in Turkey, and in response we placed missiles in Cuba. It was a situation in which there was a question of the survival of the USSR and the United States," he recalled.
"It is quite difficult to imagine such a thing now. Moreover, the Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia do not have enormous significance for Washington. They will not create a really risky situation because of this," Bordachev is sure.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Daria Volkova
