In the event of an "invasion" of Taiwan by the Chinese army, the United States will send its troops to defend the island, Biden promised. In the spring, he already made such a promise, but his assistants later clarified that "the boss was misunderstood." This time, the president said: unlike Ukraine, he will send his soldiers to Taiwan to fight. Does this mean that a small island in the Pacific Ocean will become the arena of a battle between two superpowers?The Pentagon will defend Taiwan in the event of a possible "invasion" by the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA).
This was stated by American President Joe Biden, who was quoted by TASS on Monday. The promise was made in an interview with CBS. When TV host Scott Pelley asked if the US military would defend Taiwan, the president replied: "Yes, if there really is an unprecedented attack." The journalist asked whether the United States would "defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion." "Yes," the head of state repeated.
At the same time, he warned that he did not intend to encourage the islanders to declare independence. In response to the question "What should Chinese President Xi Jinping know about your commitment to Taiwan?", Biden said: "We agree with what we signed a long time ago. And that there is a "one–China policy", and Taiwan itself decides on its independence," Biden replied.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait seriously escalated after the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited the island on August 2-3, which caused the undisguised anger of Beijing. And on Friday, one of the CNN correspondents, referring to CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, reported on Twitter that "Chinese President Xi Jinping told his military that he wants China to be able to take control of Taiwan by force by 2027."
Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, is sure that the Chinese General Staff has plans to land on Taiwan, of course, but such publications should not be taken at face value. "Every country, including China, has its own plans to attack and defend against different countries. This is not surprising. There are plans to attack Taiwan, but this does not mean that a military clash will eventually occur," the expert explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD. Although Taiwan may now be "saturated" with American weapons and combat specialists, the clash over the island is unlikely to develop into a nuclear war between China and the United States. "There is a 99% probability that this will not happen, because China is an extremely reasonable and responsible power. Up to 25 million people live in Taiwan, and it is a fairly fortified island, so it is obvious to everyone that any armed clashes there will lead to huge casualties," the orientalist adds.
The scientific director of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Lukin, does not exclude the scenario of a nuclear war between China and the United States, although so far all the arguments about this, according to him, are "abstract." "If, for example, Beijing fails to achieve its goals with regard to Taiwan, it will be a terrible humiliation for it. In this case, China can compensate for this failure by using nuclear weapons. But so far there is not even a conventional military conflict around the island," the source recalled.
"In case of an attack, Taiwan will resist. How effective is it?
Foreign military experts make different forecasts. Some say that China will land troops and seize the territory in a few days, while others are sure that such a scenario will not be realized, because the Americans will have time to pull up their forces and enter the war," Lukin said earlier.
As for Biden's statement, its meaning is to protect Taiwan with the help of preventive intimidation, the Sinologist believes. "We can say for sure that Biden has moved away from the policy of "strategic uncertainty" that America adhered to under Trump. When asked about Taiwan's support in the event of an armed conflict with China, Trump always answered evasively. Biden answers directly," Lukin told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
Maslov considers Biden's speech a reflection of the disputes going on in overseas ruling circles behind the scenes. "There is a serious fight going on in the establishment. Most of the American elite and the business associated with the US-China trade oppose the aggravation of the situation around Taiwan. After all, the escalation of the conflict can significantly worsen trade between the countries. And the trade turnover between them, for a moment, is hundreds of billions of dollars. At the same time, China supplies more than it buys itself, and there is no country that could replace it in this," Maslov recalled.
"Another part of the American establishment is sure that it is necessary to force China to completely "get bogged down" in the Taiwan problem. To do this, it is necessary to provoke his attack on the island, then accuse Beijing of massive human rights violations and then ultimately destroy China as a macroeconomic region. That is, to make China an "untouchable country", an outcast, and thereby eliminate a competitor. Beijing understands this and does not want to get involved, but it is being forced," the expert believes.
In this situation, China is trying to coordinate its next steps with other countries. "Security issues were raised last week at the SCO summit. And on Monday, consultations were held in Beijing with the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev. It is obvious that China is trying to agree on the further development of the situation around Taiwan," the interlocutor suggested. Indeed, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev flew to Beijing on Monday. As a result, it became known that Patrushev and a member of the politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Yang Jiechi expressed concern about the "escalation of tension on the part of the United States" in the Asia-Pacific region. Another member of the politburo, secretary of the political and legal commission of the CPC Central Committee, Guo Shengkun, noted in an interview with Patrushev that Beijing is ready to promote a new comprehensive security concept together with Moscow.
Since the US Congress (including Senator Biden) approved the "Law on Relations with Taiwan" in 1979, American presidents have only once allowed themselves to threaten Beijing with a direct military clash. It was in 2001, when George W. Bush, in response to a similar question, whether the United States is obliged to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack, replied: "Yes. And the Chinese should understand this." Then this threat sounded purely speculative. First, relations between America and the Middle Kingdom were experiencing a flourishing period. Secondly, the PRC army was clearly not ready to challenge not only America, but even the "separatists". At that time, the PLA simply did not have landing ships capable of delivering Chinese soldiers to the rebellious island. Today, Beijing has such ships at its disposal.
Now the Chinese Navy, the largest in the world, is able to completely block Taiwan if desired. This assessment was made by the commander of the US Seventh Fleet, Vice Admiral Carl Thomas, commenting on Biden's statement. China produces ships at an "impressive pace," while the United States does not have many shipyards, Thomas complained in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. He also highly appreciated the increased coordination of actions of various PLA troops, including the Air Force and naval forces. "They began to work more closely than a year, three, five years ago," the vice admiral said.
In a conversation with Biden, a CBS journalist did not accidentally ask the same thing. The fact is that in May, during a visit to Japan, the president already made a similar statement. But then many decided that the elderly president simply made a slip of the tongue. After all, a few hours later, his own team refuted the words of the chief. An anonymous representative of the White House explained to Reuters at the time: the president was misunderstood – he was talking about providing the island with "military means for protection," which corresponds to the "Law on Relations with Taiwan." As you know, this document provides a variety of support for the "authorities" of the island, in particular, all these decades Washington has supplied Taipei with modern weapons. However, the document does not contain an obligation to intervene in the war on the side of the islanders. So Biden's promise became his personal initiative.
Beijing also rebuked Washington on this issue. "The statement of the American side grossly violates the principle of "one China" and the provisions of the three Sino-American conscientious communiques," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning. "It also sends an erroneous signal to the pro-independence forces of Taiwan. China expresses deep dissatisfaction and resolute protest in this regard, and also made a strict presentation to the American side," Mao said. "No one should underestimate the firm determination of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity," the diplomat added.
Shortly after Mao's speech, four planes of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLA) crossed the so-called middle line of the Taiwan Strait. According to the island's defense ministry, two Su-30 fighters, one J-16 ("Jian-16") and a JH-7 fighter-bomber participated in the maneuvers. Taipei, in response, also raised an air patrol and deployed anti-aircraft missile systems. At the same time, the island's foreign ministry expressed its "sincere gratitude" to Biden. "Taiwan, in the face of China's military expansion and provocative actions, will continue to strengthen its self–defense capability, firmly resist authoritarianism and aggression, and deepen close security partnership with the United States," Taipei said.
Daria Volkova, Olesya Otrokova
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