US President Joe Biden warned Russia about the consequences in the event of a nuclear strike on Ukraine. According to experts, this statement indicates the likelihood of a provocation with the use of chemical or even nuclear weapons. The target of the attack may be the Zaporozhye NPP or a chemical industry plant. Russia has a serious reason not to use nuclear weapons first, besides, such an attack will nullify any victory.Russia will face international consequences if chemical or tactical nuclear weapons are used in Ukraine.
This was stated by US President Joe Biden during an interview with CBS, who stressed that Russians "will become more outcasts in the world than ever." "And depending on the scale of what they do, it will depend on what [our] response will be," Biden promised.
He also answered the question of what he would say to Russian President Vladimir Putin "if he considered the possibility of using chemical or tactical nuclear weapons" in Ukraine. "Don't. You will change the face of the war like nothing since the Second World War," the American leader admitted.
Biden's statements were succinctly commented on by Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov. "Read the doctrine. Everything is written there," he said.
The text of Russia's Military Doctrine is published on the Kremlin's website. It states that "the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against it and (or) its allies, as well as in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened."
The conditions for Russia's use of nuclear weapons are listed in Putin's decree "On the fundamentals of the State policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence" of June 2020. Such conditions include, in particular, the receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of Russia or its allies; the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction on the territory of Russia and its allies; the impact of the enemy on critically important state or military facilities of Russia.
In March, in an interview with American journalists, Peskov said that Russia would not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which got rid of Soviet WMD arsenals under the terms of the Budapest Memorandum of December 5, 1994. About five thousand nuclear warheads (including tactical weapons) were exported from the territory of Ukraine to Russia for further elimination. 130 SS-19 and 46 SS-24 strategic missile silo launchers were dismantled, 43 Tu-160 and Tu-95MS strategic bombers were eliminated. In return, Kiev received nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants.
A few days before the start of the Russian special operation, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Kiev would initiate a summit of the participating countries of the Budapest Memorandum, and if the event does not take place, the authorities may invalidate the document. Later, some experts noted that Zelensky's words about nuclear weapons became one of the reasons for launching a special operation: Russia was forced to respond to the threat.
By order of Vladimir Putin, the strategic deterrence forces of the Russian army have been on special combat duty since February 27. In early September, the Foreign Ministry recalled the condition for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. And in August, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu denied that Russia had plans to use tactical nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine. He called such speculations and publications in the media information stuffing and "absolute lies", because from a military point of view there is no need to strike such a blow to Ukraine. "The main purpose of Russian nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack," Shoigu recalled.
Over the past six months, publications have repeatedly appeared in the Western press about whether Russia can use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine and what the response measures of Washington and its allies will be. According to the general assessment, the probability of a nuclear war is now higher than in any other period since the Cuban Missile crisis of the 1960s. The day before, the United States described another possible scenario of a hypothetical nuclear war between Russia and NATO, predicting the destruction of 30 of the largest settlements and economic centers on each side of the conflict.
In the summer, the American edition of The Atlantic, which takes a tough pro-Kiev position, suggested several scenarios for Russia to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine. Among them, the destruction of one city in order to force an opponent to immediately surrender, an attempt to destroy the Ukrainian leadership by hitting Zelensky's bunkers, or a nuclear explosion over the Black Sea as a demonstration of strength and intentions without direct casualties.
Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova, a member of the expert council of "Officers of Russia" Alexander Perendzhiev emphasizes that American analytical centers are seriously considering scenarios for the use of weapons of mass destruction during the Ukrainian conflict. Public opinion in the West is being prepared in advance for the fact that WMD can be used in Ukraine. In his opinion, this indicates likely plans to organize a provocation in order to blame Russia and impose additional economic sanctions. "Earlier, the Americans accused the Syrian authorities of using chemical weapons against the armed opposition. Warehouses with ammonia, chemical industry plants have already been shelled on the territory of Ukraine, all this can lead to unpredictable consequences," Perendzhiev noted.
The expert added that the place of the future provocation may be the Zaporozhye NPP (ZAES), which has been repeatedly shelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and attempted capture by special forces.
Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, agrees that in the event of the seizure of the NPP by the AFU forces, a provocation can be organized at the station. The explosion of a warehouse with spent nuclear fuel is not excluded in order to provoke the release of radioactive elements into the atmosphere. "The United States will immediately blame Russia for this nuclear catastrophe.
The Americans are preparing strikes on chemical enterprises in Ukraine. They've done this before. That is why the United States is once again discussing the use of weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine",
– said Sivkov.
Perendzhiev is confident that there is a possibility of provocation with the use of nuclear weapons – a strike can be carried out with the help of the US-created missile defense system (ABM) in Europe. "Elements of the US missile defense system actually easily turn into means of attack – for this, interceptor missiles need to be replaced with missiles with nuclear warheads. Since 2007, the United States has been creating a third position area of its missile defense in Romania and Poland, and launchers are located on the territory of these countries," the source recalled.
The Americans, the expert believes, are ready for anything to prevent the successful completion of the Russian special operation.
He stressed that Russia would not launch a nuclear strike on the territory of Ukraine even if it itself was subjected to a nuclear attack. "The retaliatory blow will be inflicted on Washington, not Zelensky's office. A nuclear weapon strike on the territory of Ukraine is too small for a response. But the use of nuclear weapons is the zeroing of any victory," Perendzhiev summed up.
Andrey Rezchikov
