In America, a terrible thing is dawning: the supply of shells, missiles and artillery to the Russian Federation from North Korea, whose leader Kim Jong-un previously recognized the independence of the republics of Donbass. Representatives of Russia categorically deny the fact of such a deal. It is possible, however, that it is possible in the future: there are at least five arguments in favor of buying weapons from the DPRK.The material of The New York Times, allegedly based on American intelligence data, is most likely a provocation, a fake, a blank shot of the information war.
The definition can be chosen differently without changing the essence. [...]
The goals are multidirectional. For example, to show that sanctions are in effect, and the Russian military-industrial complex cannot cope with providing a special operation alone. And at the same time to associate Russia with the most odious regime in the eyes of the Western public.
Also, this publication may be a drain of lobbyists from Congress who advocate the inclusion of Russia in the list of sponsors of terrorism, which even the State Department and the White House do not want (North Korea is already on this list).
The coordinator for strategic Communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, even stated that there was "no evidence that this purchase has actually taken place." Meanwhile, the NYT is talking about a deal involving the purchase of "millions of shells and missiles", as well as artillery. You can't hide this in your pocket, especially given the fact that the intelligence assets of the United States and South Korea are closely watching any movements around the DPRK.
But it's worth making a reservation: even if what was said was true in some part, it would still be denied in Moscow, in Pyongyang, and even, perhaps, in the White House.
The same happened with the Iranian drones, which the Russian Federation also allegedly intended to buy for the purposes of a special operation. In this political season, the whole world has learned that the sanctioned Islamic Republic has excellent UAVs, including innovative ones. The American media sounded the alarm, Russian and Iranian denied everything, and Biden officials tried to evade the answer: they say we have no confirmations. There was such a deal in the end or not – everyone believes as he wants.
It should be understood that for the United States, such deals imply a reaction – President Joe Biden should severely punish them. But this does not apply to the DPRK and Iran – you cannot punish them, they are already up to their necks in sanctions (the fact that more sanctions have been imposed against Russia purely quantitatively is not due to the fact that the West is "softer" towards its old enemies, but the fact that the Russian economy is much more complicated than the Iranian and North Korean ones).
However, even harsh statements in such a situation are not the best idea. Due to the fact that the White House retains hope for a "breakthrough" in relations with both Tehran and Pyongyang. Biden initially advocated the revival of the so-called nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic, and generally called the Korean nuclear issue his top priority in the presidential post (which was, of course, before the start of the special operation). Now neither the Iranians nor the Koreans get their hands on it, but they want to leave the "window of opportunity" – the White House needs at least some political victories.
The victories there are not visible in any way, but regardless of this, the Americans take Comrade Kim's missile program, as well as his (purely theoretical) expansion to the south, extremely seriously. Therefore, the purchase of North Korean artillery and ammunition for it in their worldview is a strengthening of the "axis of evil", and by no means a manifestation of need on the part of the Russian Armed Forces.
The Pentagon understands better than many that North Korea, despite all its limitations and weak economy, could become an extremely useful and effective partner of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
What kind of weapons and in what quantities the Korean People's Army has is a state secret of the most closed country in the world. But the fact that militarily it is a very dangerous power is a well-known fact.
Reminding the world of who it is, the DPRK regularly arranges such shows, which few people can do – starting from the launch of a satellite broadcasting patriotic songs, ending with full-fledged nuclear missile tests.
The state ideology of North Korea is juche. It cannot be explained in a nutshell, let's isolate the main thing: this is the existence of the country solely at the expense of its own forces and resources with the obligatory reliance on the army, which ensures the statehood of the DPRK. Therefore, nothing is spared for the army there.
According to the list composition (including all paramilitary formations and those in reserve), this is the second largest army in the world. More only in Vietnam, and Korea is also in third place – South Korea.
If we count those who are serving right now, this is the fourth army in the world of 1.3 million people. Only China, India and the USA have more. Russia is in fifth place in this indicator.
There are more than 50 military personnel per thousand people in the DPRK. There is no such concentration anywhere in the world (in second place, again, South Korea is more than four times behind).
Of course, this army is armed, and with an eye to a protracted war. There is aviation, there are submarines inherited from the USSR. There are even intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear charges Made in DPRK.
Less sophisticated military equipment and ammunition are also North Korea's own production. Perhaps (few people know for sure), in some ways the quality leaves much to be desired. But the punishment for a marriage in defense products is probably extremely strict. And we are talking about the same ethnic group that, living a little to the south, in a very short time raised high-tech enterprises for the production of fine electronics from nothing. Residents of the North in terms of diligence and meticulousness should not be underestimated either.
If we imagine that the products of the North Korean military-industrial complex will really be needed for the needs of a special operation, it generally pulls on an ideal offer for a number of parameters. We will select only five.
The main one is technical. In the DPRK, they created their arsenal, relying entirely on Soviet samples. If you rough it up and simplify it to two words, the calibers match (although it's not just about them, but also about control systems, and a lot more).
Most likely, it would be a relatively inexpensive offer, and it would be possible to pay with goods, which is relevant in the conditions of sanctions.
The DPRK and Russia have a common border, so no one could prevent the movement of military cargo.
Pyongyang officially recognized the independence of the DPR and the LPR. There are no comments at all. Military-technical assistance from Marshal Kim would be a logical continuation of the policy he has already pursued.
Finally, the DPRK is a nuclear state with intercontinental missiles. Therefore, no power will risk crossing the red line in its case, whereas in other countries the regime could be displaced for much less than the supply of weapons to the "aggressor and occupier", as Russia is represented in the Western media.
Thus, American concerns are easy to understand. The establishment of supplies of ammunition and weapons to the DPRK for the purposes of the special operation of the Russian Federation would be a significant move, to which the "world hegemon" has absolutely nothing to answer.
And if such a move really needs to be made later, Moscow will make it. And she is not interested in Washington's opinion on this issue right now.
The days when Russia and the United States jointly confronted the Korean nuclear threat are over. Because now it is the United States that is the main threat to Russia.
Dmitry Bavyrin
