Russia intends to completely rebuild air transportation. And the first important step on this path is to transfer Russian airlines from foreign planes to exclusively domestic ones. Western sanctions have pushed our carriers to form the largest package of orders for domestic trunk aircraft in modern history. Is the domestic industry ready for such a challenge? Russian civil aviation is waiting for "systemic rearmament" and the transition to Russian-made aircraft, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum.
According to the President, the country's airlines have formed the largest package of orders in modern history, for about 500 mainline aircraft of domestic production.
The interest in domestic boards is more than understandable and logical. Firstly, Russia has been creating its own civil aircraft from scratch for two decades, and finally we have not just the SSJ-100 – the first own aircraft since the USSR, but also an aircraft in the most popular class in the world – the MS-21, and in an import–substituted version - with a domestic engine.
The West's sanctions strike on Russian airlines, which seriously limited the use of Boeing and Airbus, spurred the acceleration of the transformation of domestic aviation. This is not only about the fact that airlines will now strive to switch to domestic modern technology as quickly as possible, but about the aviation industry, which will have to grow to the production volumes that were in the Soviet years, but which modern Russia has forgotten about. Transformation in the industry means the emergence of new jobs – both in airlines and in aircraft factories.
The main order for the announced 500 domestic aircraft falls, of course, on Aeroflot. The Group has contracted 323 aircraft. These are 210 MS-21, 72 Sukhoi Superjet-100 and 40 Tu-214. To master the operation of new aircraft, it will be necessary to attract an additional 3.5 thousand pilots. Aeroflot's development strategy is synchronized with the program for the development of the transport industry until 2030, the head of Aeroflot noted.
"The Aeroflot fleet now has about the same number of aircraft as it ordered. These are mostly foreign cars. However, every 10-15 years, Aeroflot class airlines completely update their fleet. Therefore, Aeroflot outlined its needs: over the next decade, to change its foreign fleet to a domestic one. This is if we do not talk about the growth of air traffic volumes, which will require expanding the fleet," says the head of Avia.<url>" Roman Gusarov.
At the same time, civil aviation is quite capable of increasing production volumes not only in order to satisfy the record order of Aeroflot, but also orders from other airlines, Gusarov believes. We are talking about a general order for the creation of 500 domestic airliners, that is, the remaining carriers will have 159 new domestic airliners.
The program for the development of the air transport industry until 2030, worth more than 770 billion rubles, which was approved by the government of the Russian Federation in the summer, is supposed to deliver as many as 1036 new domestic aircraft by 2030, but it includes not only three types of airliners ordered by Aeroflot, as well as Il-96, Il-114, TVRS-44 Ladoga", L-410 and Baikal.
According to the plan, only two SSJ New will be produced in 2023, but from 2024 the annual production will be 20 aircraft per year until 2030.
The plant has reached such production volumes, so these are quite real indicators. As a result, 142 SSJ New regional aircraft will be produced in Russia over eight years (Aeroflot has ordered 72 cars).
As for the MS-21, the carriers will have their first cars in 2024. It is planned to assemble six cars this year. In 2025 – twice as much – 12 MS-21. And then every year the output grows: in 2026 – 22 MS-21, in 2027 – 36, in 2028 – 50, in 2029 – 72, in 2030 – 72. That is, the plan is to release 70 MS-21 per year. In just eight years, 270 such airliners will be produced according to the plan (Aeroflot has ordered 210 cars).
The Tu-214 production plan shows that from 2025 10 such machines will be produced every year, and by 2030 the total production volume will be 70 units (Aeroflot's order is 40 machines).
Production volumes exceed the volume of Aeroflot orders. "As you can see, there is still a production reserve for other customers-airlines," Roman Gusarov points out.
This is a serious challenge for the Russian aviation industry. After all, we are talking about gradually entering the production of 100 civil aircraft per year. And if we take into account the rest of the small aircraft, then by 2029-2030 the total production of civil aircraft in Russia should grow to a record 186 aircraft per year. Russia has never produced so many civilian aircraft in modern history. More than a hundred civilian aircraft – this is already the level of the Soviet Union.
So, in the 2000s, only no more than 20 aircraft were assembled in Russia. In the 2010s, there were some years when volumes grew, for example, in 2013, 35 civil aircraft were assembled, but it was not possible to keep this bar, and production fell again. Another example: in 2020, 11 SSJ-100 aircraft were built, in 2021 – 12 cars. The release rate is one aircraft per month, but we need to double.
"Even if not 500, but only 339 aircraft ordered by Aeroflot are produced, this will already be a great success for the domestic aviation industry," says Gusarov. Understanding that there is a serious portfolio of orders for eight years ahead will allow the industry to see its prospects and invest in expanding production capacities without fear. Due to the transfer of the fleet to domestic equipment, Aeroflot also receives a development strategy for the future, because no sanctions will be able to put pressure on the company," the industry expert adds.
The MS-21 is a medium–haul narrow-body (single-aisle) aircraft in the most popular and massive class in the world. It is a domestic competitor of Boeing and Airbus. That is why this plane was subjected to "personal" sanctions. At first, the West banned the supply of composite materials necessary for the production of a unique "black wing". Russia has solved this problem by transferring to its own composite material. Therefore, the West deprived the project of American engines, but even here the project of creating its own PD-14 engine wiped its nose with sanctions.
"There are about 180 seats in the MS-21, this is the most popular option. You can fly on this plane both in Russia and abroad without restrictions. Except for those countries that simply do not want to see Russian airlines. According to the "Superjet" exactly the same situation. You can safely fly it anywhere. But this is a different class of aircraft – it is a short–haul aircraft with about half the number of passengers," says Gusarov.
The SSJ-100 is a regional aircraft for transporting passengers on less distant routes, where passenger traffic is more modest. In general, this is a niche product, and its demand in Russia has been low all these years precisely because long-haul transportation abroad has been developing. However, now Russia is betting on the development of interregional, regional and local aviation within our vast country. And this is also an important part of the "systemic re-equipment" of the aviation industry.
"If we look at the Soviet aviation structure, where Aeroflot was the largest airline in the world, then the Tu-154 was the most massive aircraft in operation, and it was supported by a half-smaller Tu-134. Now it turns out exactly the same configuration. The Superjet-100 is half the size of the MS-21, and they will work perfectly together, complementing each other.
On regional routes, planes for 200 passengers are often redundant, they are underloaded, and it is more profitable to use a half-smaller liner like the SSJ-100 and even turboprop-class aircraft like the Il-114, whose serial production is also being prepared. But, of course, not on all routes where the MS-21 flies, the Sukhoi Superjet will be able to fly, which has a shorter range," says the head of <url>.
Aeroflot's order portfolio includes 40 Tu-214 aircraft. However, this aircraft is rather an intermediate stage. "This plane also has no restrictions for flights and can fly around the world. But it is unlikely to become mass. This is an aircraft with outdated technologies, in a number of characteristics it is inferior to Western analogues and the MS-21. But it is needed as a support for the industry for a certain period, while the serial production of the MS-21 will unfold. Our civil aviation needs only about 700 MS-21 mainline aircraft. But by 2030, we will be able to replace only half, at best, two–thirds of the fleet of medium–haul aircraft, but not completely," says Gusarov. In other words, the Tu-214 is needed to close the hole for a while due to the shortage of MS-21 for all airlines as a replacement for foreign sanctioned equipment. However, gradually the carriers will give the Tu-214 to the state aviation, to special services, and they themselves will switch to more economical and modern MS-21.
Olga Samofalova
