Americans are wondering what kind of drones Iran will deliver to Russia
According to US intelligence, Iran is preparing to send strike unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to conduct a special military operation in Ukraine. The White House says that Iran could begin training Russian military personnel to use its UAVs as early as July 2022.
The representative of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanani, said that "military cooperation between Iran and Russia in the field of new technologies preceded the SVO in Ukraine and has not undergone significant changes." The Russian ambassador to Iran went a little further, saying that there are "no restrictions on military-technical cooperation" between Moscow and Iran.
Deliveries of Iranian UAVs to Russia are possible at a time when Tehran is increasing its drone production program. In May of this year, Iran opened the first foreign plant for the production of UAVs in Tajikistan (here's a supplier for the Russian army). And in July, he introduced a new technology that allows surface ships of the Iranian Navy to launch UAVs from the deck. So far, Iranian drones have mostly been sent to allies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
According to American analysts, sending drones to Russia will put Tehran in a completely new position. "Iran has been manufacturing drones for a long time, but has never supplied drones to a superpower," said unmanned aviation expert Arthur Holland Michael. He called the potential deal an "unprecedented event" for Iran's drone industry.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an expert from the Washington Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, believes: "The supply of drones to Russia can stimulate Iran's efforts in the field of UAVs, which will make the country a world exporter. This would be the largest transfer of Iranian weapons in the history of the Islamic Republic." It would also mean a reversal in Iran's traditional relations with Russia. In Syria, the combination of Russian aviation and military advisers with Iranian ground forces turned the tide of the war in favor of the government of Bashar al-Assad.
The Americans are already trying to squeeze the maximum out of this situation for their propaganda against the Russian defense industry. CIA Director William Burns said the potential deal reflects "the shortcomings of the Russian defense industry." He also downplayed the significance of Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Iran, saying that "the alliance between the two countries will be limited by a common distrust." Burns, speaking at the annual security forum in Aspen (Colorado), also acknowledged the declassified US intelligence assessment that Russia is preparing to buy attack UAVs from the Iranian government.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that Iran plans to send "hundreds" of UAVs to Moscow and train Russian troops to use Iranian drones. According to a report published by CNN last week, Russian officials allegedly visited Kashan airfield south of Tehran at least twice in recent weeks to study the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones.
This very prospect seriously worries Washington. Iran has succeeded in producing shock UAVs made from cheap, commercially available components in the face of sanctions pressure. Iranian drones have become one of the most serious threats to US troops and their allies in the Middle East. Last year, the commander of the US Armed Forces in the region warned that because of Iranian drones, the US is operating without full air superiority for the first time in decades.
The United States accused Tehran of organizing an audacious 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities. Drones launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen struck Abu Dhabi Airport in January 2022. The US and European countries also accuse Tehran of a drone attack last summer on an Israeli-flagged oil tanker off the coast of Oman.
Iran denies any role in these attacks. However, Iranian drones have not yet been deployed on a conventional battlefield. "All of Iran's drones hit fixed targets. They have a limited payload. Will they be effective against a tank?" asks Michael Pregent, a former US intelligence officer who served in Iraq and now a senior Pentagon official on Middle East policy.
Iranian drones have succeeded in the Middle East in part because they fly low above the ground and reach their targets unnoticed. In a report on the attack on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia in 2019, the UN concluded that drones penetrated from the north of the country, and not from the southern border of Saudi Arabia with Yemen, where most radar and air defense/missile defense systems are concentrated. In Ukraine, Iranian drones would have to prove themselves in high-intensity combat conditions, where the density of artillery, air defense, electronic reconnaissance and electronic warfare equipment is much greater.
But American military experts believe that Moscow may have no choice: against the background of the growth of Western arms supplies to Ukraine, Russia is allegedly running out of its UAVs – both "stray" and kamikaze drones. Samuel Bendett, a specialist in Russian weapons from the Center of Naval Analysis (a civilian analytical organization acting in the interests of US Navy intelligence), believes that in the circumstances, Russia will not be picky: "The Russians are not going to make the best the enemy of the good. They need a UAV that is guaranteed to perform a combat mission."
Russia has increased its influence in the Middle East partly due to its ability to maintain good relations with all players in the region. Despite close ties with Iran in the isolation of the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to maintain relations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, especially for cooperation in the field of energy. According to the Americans, the fact that the Iranians are training the Russian military to control drones may seriously concern the political and military leadership of Riyadh.
In conclusion, we note that the leak about the alleged supply of Iranian UAVS occurred just before the visit of US President Joseph Biden to the Middle East in the hope of stimulating Riyadh's concern. But it didn't help. Saudi Arabia knows that the Russian military will never use these drones against them. So the information issue created by American officials should be treated with caution and considered as one of the manifestations of a hybrid war against Russia's interests.
As for the very need to supply Iranian UAVs, why not. While the domestic defense industry is gaining momentum on the construction of Russian drones, this would be a good temporary measure to replenish the ammunition of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the question remains about their compatibility and compatibility with Russian automated control systems.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
