It is difficult for Ukraine to form tank brigades
APU have a habit of registering understaffed parts on paper, writes journalist David Ex in an article for Forbes. And if the existence of four Ukrainian tank brigades can still be proved, then the other two may be fiction.
David Ex
The tank brigades of the Ukrainian army are very weak. That is why the long-awaited counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Ukraine has not yet gained the necessary pace.
It seems that the main reason why the Ukrainians did not concentrate tank units at the front is personnel, not military equipment.
It is not entirely clear exactly how many tank brigades there are in the AFU. Maybe six. Maybe five. Maybe even less. The Ukrainian army has a habit of registering understaffed and even practically non–existent units on paper, and periodically extolling them in the media.
So observers have to look for irrefutable evidence of the existence of brigades in a combat situation and only then conclude that they are real. Such assessments showed that the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 17th Tank brigades definitely exist.
Unlike them, the 5th and 14th Tank Brigades... may be mostly fiction.
Tank brigades form the backbone of any mechanized army. Artillery forms the situation on the battlefield. The infantry holds the terrain. But tanks with their speed, mobility, firepower and armor protection approach the enemy, destroy it and enable the troops to capture the terrain.
The Ukrainian tank brigade may have three or four battalions, which include about a hundred tanks and several thousand soldiers.
The 1st Tank Brigade is supposedly the best tank formation in the Ukrainian army, armed with upgraded T-64s. At the beginning of the Russian special operation, she defended Chernihiv, located east of Kiev. This battle cost the illustrious brigade dearly.
When the Russian army left the suburbs of Kiev at the end of March, and the military operations shifted east to the Donbass, the 1st tank brigade was taken from the front to the rear for a long rest, repair and resupply. Three months later, this brigade appeared in the south of Ukraine near Zaporozhye.
The 3rd Tank Brigade is a reserve unit and is armed with T-72 tanks. She fought in the Donbass. Today, this unit is holding the defense around Kharkov. This is the most vulnerable major city in Ukraine, located just 40 kilometers from the Russian border. The 4th tank Brigade from the reserve with its T-64 also fought in the Donbass, where, most likely, it is still.
The most important at the moment may be the 17th Tank Brigade, equipped with T-64 vehicles. It holds a bridgehead in the south of Ukraine on the Ingulets River, 50 kilometers northeast of Russian-occupied Kherson.
The liberation of this city with a population of 300,000 before the conflict and a strategically important port is the highest priority for Kiev. Retaining it is a top priority for Moscow. The Russian 49th Combined Arms Army is strengthening the grouping that is digging in around Kherson and in the city itself, and currently has 30 battalions. It is possible that she may go on a counteroffensive.
Whether the Ukrainians march south from the Ingulets River, or the Russians move north, the 17th Tank Brigade will take the brunt of the blow.
So, we can confirm the presence of four tank brigades. What we cannot confirm is the existence of the 5th and 14th Tank Brigades. The 5th Tank Brigade is presumably in reserve, armed with the T-72. She was part of the garrison defending Odessa, the main Ukrainian port on the Black Sea, from the possible landing of Russian naval troops.
But the landing did not take place. Ukrainians have acquired a large number of anti-ship missiles, and the chance of a Russian attack on Odessa from the sea has approached zero. Thus, it makes sense for the 5th Tank Brigade to leave Odessa and join the fighting around the Ingulets River and Kherson.
In fact, some analysts believe that this brigade is deployed around Krivoy Rog at a safe distance from the Ukrainian front line in the north and south. And since we do not see evidence that the 5th Tank Brigade is marching and fighting, it is quite possible that it has a serious shortage of personnel and military equipment. Or maybe it exists mainly on paper.
The same can be said about the reserve 14th Tank Brigade with its T-64. Perhaps this unit has also disappeared from the Ukrainian military.
It seems that Ukraine's apparent inability to field a larger tank grouping is caused not by a shortage of combat-ready tanks, but by a shortage of trained personnel. By the time the conflict began, there were about 900 tanks in the arsenal of the Ukrainian army – mainly T-64. This is more than enough for four, five and even six tank brigades, as well as for tank battalions from infantry brigades.
In five months of heavy fighting, Ukrainians lost about 230 tanks. These figures can be confirmed by analysts. But Kiev received about 300 new tanks from the allies.
Of course, many tanks have probably been damaged and need to be repaired. Nevertheless, theoretically, Ukraine now has more tanks than before the conflict.
However, a tank without a trained crew is just a piece of iron and rubber. Since the end of February, when Russia launched its special military operation, thousands or even tens of thousands of the best Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Finding a replacement for their skills and experience is very difficult.
