Russian troops need long-range artillery systems
On July 24, 2022, five months have passed since the beginning of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. A line beyond which you can sum up some results, as the sailors say, look around in the compartments. And then draw new red arrows on the commander's maps. What are these five months talking about, is everything going as planned?
TURN ALL OF A SUDDEN
Before proceeding to the analysis of the situation on the fronts, we will note a few new political moments that characterize today. And first of all, this is the beginning of the sobering up of Europe. Europe is beginning to see the light, the situation even among the politicians of the first echelon is beginning to change gradually.
This is evidenced by the deconservation of European coal mines and coal-fired power plants, the visit of the Hungarian Foreign Minister to Russia to sign a new contract for the supply of 700 million cubic meters of gas, the resignation of Boris Johnson, the government crisis in Italy.
Europeans are beginning to refuse hospitality to refugees from Ukraine, who are increasingly being called ungrateful, uncultured, and Ukraine is a hole where billions of dollars are disappearing, terry corruption is flourishing, trade in supplied weapons and military equipment is in full swing. All this is a very important turn in the brains and actions of the once united Europe. And this discord will grow the more the further our troops advance on the territory of Ukraine.
OPERATIONAL PAUSE
Now the tactical pause that our military took a couple of weeks ago is coming to an end on the fronts. It was simply necessary to pull up reserves, to bring weapons and ammunition, to complement battalion tactical groups and military units participating in the SVO, to rotate personnel taking into account the retirement of the wounded or, alas, the dead. Unfortunately, this is the harsh prose of war, whether we want to think about it or not.
The fact that the troops were taking an operational pause is indicated by the arrival at the "front" of the head of the Russian military department, Army General Sergei Shoigu. Here he was engaged not only in awarding distinguished servicemen, but also analyzed the situation, compared the progress of combat missions with the original plans, summed up the next stage of his military service. What does this analysis show?
In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops almost reached the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk border. They took control of the settlement of Pokrovskoye with the prospect of advancing to Soledar. But there are heavy battles ahead for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, especially considering that Slavyansk is located on a hill, and it will be extremely difficult to take it head-on. This means that the development of bypass raids and maneuvers will be required. What Sergei Shoigu, presumably, was doing together with the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
THE ENEMY IS BATTERED, BUT NOT BROKEN
According to recent reports from the Ministry of Defense, the enemy is suffering significant losses in weapons supplied by Western countries. As a result of the strike with precision ground-based weapons, the temporary deployment point of the nationalist formation "Black Hundred", deployed in the building of school No. 23 in the city of Kramatorsk, was destroyed. Up to 300 nationalists and over 40 units of special equipment were eliminated.
High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed a warehouse of rocket and artillery weapons of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, equipped in a production hangar on the territory of an industrial zone in the eastern part of the city of Nikolaev. Enemy losses amounted to up to 30 personnel, 6 units of armored and automotive equipment, over 2,000 shells for MLRS "Grad", about 1,000 shells for self-propelled howitzers "Acacia".
The strikes on military facilities on the territory of Ukraine are also being carried out by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery. During the day, six control points were hit, including the 92nd mechanized brigade near the village of Rogan, Kharkiv region, the command and observation post of the battalion of the 72nd mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Serebryanka area of Donetsk region, five warehouses with rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition in the areas of the settlements of Zaitseve, Vishnevoye and Uspenovka, Zaporozhye region. As part of the counter-battery struggle, four platoons of Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 24 artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers and 13 artillery platoons of D-30 guns were suppressed.
In general, a more or less favorable situation is developing for us in all sectors of the front. Many servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually beginning to understand that they are being used as cannon fodder, and at the first convenient situation they flee from the front line. Moreover, against the background of significant losses in the east of Ukraine, the residents of the western regions mobilized into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine refuse to go to the Donbass. Thus, the servicemen of the 100th Territorial Defense Brigade in the city of Lutsk, Volyn region, in full force refused to participate in hostilities. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has disarmed the brigade, the instigators have been arrested, and a decision has been made to re-form this compound.
As for our troops, after the elimination of the boiler in the area of the Gorsky, Zolotoy and Lisichansky fortified areas of the AFU by units of the allied forces, the advance in the Soledarsko-Artemovsky, Seversky, and Slavyansk operational directions slowed down or stopped. So, for almost a week of active hostilities in the Seversky and Soledar directions, units of the army corps of the People's Militia of the LDPR and the special purpose police of the Chechen Republic advanced only 1-3 km. It is quite difficult to displace the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the settlements of Berestovoye, Verkhnekamenskoye and others located in the gray zone. In addition, the anti-tank units of the Armed Forces deployed near Seversk are armed with the Stugna-P ATGM and FGM-148E Block I Javelin and continue to counteract our units.
A VULNERABLE PLACE
The operational pause is coming to an end. This is also the opinion of the American Institute for the Study of War, where everything that happens at the front is very carefully monitored.
As far as can be judged, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry, Sergei Shoigu, ordered to intensify efforts in all sectors of the front. The key task is to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian neo–Nazis from conducting massive shelling of residential areas and objects of peaceful infrastructure of the People's Republics of Donbass and other regions.
And they, unfortunately, have become more frequent lately. And this is one of the disadvantages of the current situation. It turns out that for five months we have not been able to identify and destroy the firing points of Ukrainian artillery formations on the front line and in its depths. The question arises: where and how do our drones work, which are designed to conduct reconnaissance and mark enemy artillery batteries? Either there are simply not enough of them, or our "eyes and ears", as intelligence is called, do not work very effectively. Where, finally, is our space group, which should supply such data?
"We know that the Aidar battalions are now being actively assisted by the Americans using their satellite grouping," says Major General Alexander Vladimirov, president of the Board of Military Experts of Russia. – Aidar members have tablets on their hands, communication with the NATO leadership, even space communications, which helps them track the movement of our troops. Do we have it? At least, I don't see it."
The problem is that the APU defense line between Seversk and Soledar has a chain of powerful fortifications. To knock them out, we need artillery, and it works well for us. But our corps artillery units are armed mainly with outdated 152-mm towed howitzers D-20, 122-mm howitzers D-30, their self-propelled analogues "Acacia" and "Carnation". The radius of action of such guns is 15-17 km, which ensures that strikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are far from the full depth of their defense. It is all the more difficult for our guys to launch counter-battery strikes against the firing positions of the M777A2 howitzers, CAESAR self-propelled guns, PzH-2000, Archer, as well as Krab, located at a distance of 27-37 km from our positions. Their range is much higher, and this is a serious argument.
Of course, our units also use long-range artillery in this direction, including Hyacinth-B howitzers and 2S3 Peony self-propelled guns. But so far only in some areas and occasionally, which is clearly not enough to establish counter-battery dominance over the APU. And this, apparently, was also discussed during Shoigu's visit to the front line. Although our gunners need to bow at the feet. The specificity of its is that often up to 70% of fire tasks in land operations fall on the "god of war". And our guys with sleepers in their buttonholes solve them more than worthily.
In this regard, I believe that there were not empty conversations at all about the fact that during the visit of President Vladimir Putin to Iran, the question was raised about the purchase of Shahid-1 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which have excellent tactical and technical characteristics. The flight range is 1500 km, the speed is 340 km / h, the time spent in the air is 24 hours without refueling. Plus a bomb load under 100 kg. Such a UAV can be on duty for days over the firing positions of the Ukrainian artillery and transmit online data to command posts.
But where, in this case, are our drones with similar TTX, why are they clearly not enough in the troops? And if there is enough, why are civilians still dying in the DPR? After all, in fact, we still cannot "extinguish" the enemy's firepower at the coordinates already explored. And this is a serious problem."
GARROTE FOR HIMARS
One of the answers to these questions is this: the American long-range multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) HIMARS, as well as Caesar howitzers, M777, are firing at our positions and Donetsk. Depending on the projectiles, HIMARS can fire even at 300 km.
Interestingly, its rockets could not hit targets as accurately as it has been happening recently in the DPR and near Kherson. The most recent example is an exact hit in the Antonovsky Bridge across the Dnieper near Kherson. It was hit by several Ukrainian missiles. How is this possible?
It turns out that these rockets are controlled practically from space. The US satellite group conducts reconnaissance of our positions and promptly issues the coordinates of targets on the HIMARS MLRS, which are serviced by American instructors.
Of course, in Russia they are trying to find an antidote and pick up the keys, including to HIMARS. Thus, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in the period from July 5 to July 20, four launchers and one transport-loading vehicle were destroyed by ground- and air-based precision weapons from the HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems manufactured by the United States, transferred to Ukraine. Of these, two launchers were eliminated near the village of Malotaranovka, another HIMARS and a transport-loading vehicle – in the area of Krasnoarmeysk, and the fourth launcher – on the eastern outskirts of Konstantinovka.
After the attack on the same Antonovsky Bridge, which, by the way, still stood, we urgently pulled the S-400 Triumph air defense system there from the Crimea. In addition, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced its readiness to establish pontoon crossings. So the 12 new HIMARS installations recently presented to Ukraine by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will not make a turning point in the course of hostilities.
It turns out that the solution lies in the mobility of our anti–aircraft missile systems, in their sufficient number and, as already noted, in the timely receipt of intelligence. The eyes of the military must see far, which cannot be achieved without a full range of technical means of ground and space reconnaissance.
Oleg Falichev
Oleg Valentinovich Falichev is a military observer.
