The Ukrainian leadership loudly declares the preparation of a large–scale counteroffensive - and first of all, in the south, in the direction of Kherson and Mariupol. Is it worth believing these reports, does the Ukrainian army have the necessary forces – and where does Kiev have such ambitions?
In Kiev, they defiantly say that they are preparing some kind of counteroffensive with far-reaching political goals. The office of President Vladimir Zelensky spoke on this topic almost in full, naming both the direction of the strikes and even the approximate dates.
This is stated not only by regular Kiev propagandists like Alexey Arestovich. Kirill Budanov, the head of military intelligence, also spoke in detail about the counteroffensive. Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk directly appealed to the residents of Zaporozhye and the Kherson region with a proposal to urgently flee from there, since active hostilities will begin in the region from day to day. "The goal of Ukraine... – the liberation of our territories and the restoration of territorial integrity and full sovereignty in the east and south of Ukraine," said Dmitry Kuleba, the country's foreign minister.
These statements and promises are readily replicated by the English-language media. The general motive is this: Ukraine is going to regain control of the southern regions, since they are extremely important for the country's economy. All this is accompanied by stories that Ukraine is ready to field a million military personnel provided with Western weapons. And this is in a country where, in order to hand over a summons, people are grabbed on the beaches, right on the street, and peasants – in the fields.
It would be possible to ignore the information noise if it were not for some evidence that Kiev is ready to embark on an offensive adventure in the southern direction. First of all, there is a rotation of the AFU forces right on the most dangerous part of the front line – around Slavyansk. Experienced (though pretty battered) Ukrainian units are partially removed from the defense of Slavyansk and replaced by recruits. Basically, the former numbered brigades, including the airmobile and amphibious assault brigades, which are completely broken up, are being withdrawn - and precisely in the southern direction.
Of course, replacing them with the former defense looks like a collective suicide. And Western models of weapons are received by rear units, newly formed not even brigades, but battalion groups without numbers. Their operational subordination is closed directly to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which leads to failures in command on the front line. To get artillery support, the old numbered brigades have to call Kiev.
At the same time, the AFU intensified shelling of the southern zone. Retaliatory strikes by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Mykolaiv and the positions of the Armed Forces near Zaporozhye are very effective, but tensions in the southern sector are increasing especially against the background of an operational pause in the Donetsk direction.
The APU still retains the ability to organize some kind of local operation, similar to an attempt at a counteroffensive. We can talk about two directions. First, try to cut off the bridgehead of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the right bank of the Dnieper with access to Kherson. On paper, it looks logical, but only if the APU destroys bridges across the Dnieper and disrupts the supply of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation near Nikolaev. In this context, it looks strange for HIMARS to strike at Novaya Kakhovka, since the dam of the GRES is located there, which performs just the role of the main bridge across the Dnieper.
Secondly, the APU may try to organize a local attack from Zaporozhye to the south. There is a gradual accumulation of enemy forces, which are not enough to carry out something large-scale, but which may try to at least temporarily occupy several villages in the direction of Tokmak, take pictures there against the background of the flag and roll back with losses.
A similar plan may take place on the Orekhovo – Gulyai-Pole site, based on Zaporozhye. At the same time, in the first direction (Nikolaev – Krivoy Rog – Nikopol) in Kiev, they also expect to organize a short-term squeeze of a couple of villages. If we talk about any other areas, for example, in the Kharkiv region, this is completely impossible because of the total advantage of the Russian Armed Forces there in artillery and aviation.
At the same time, there is no certainty in Kiev about exactly how to use the received Western weapons – with its help, the AFU originally intended to create a fire advantage over the Russian army, including in the south. Some of the officers of the General Staff continue to insist that new weapons are extremely necessary in the Donbass direction, and indeed a large volume of howitzers and MLRS supplied goes to Donbass. But some of the supplies still end up in the southern section as part of the reserve units. Thus, the accumulation of reserves is slow, with great difficulty and can in no way guarantee the success of any offensive operation.
From a purely military point of view, the plans of the "southern offensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine look like a complete utopia, but Zelensky and his entourage are more concerned about the external effect, "political theatricality" than the real situation on the fronts. It is openly announced that Zelensky has allegedly already given the order to liberate the southern regions of the country. That is, this is a political and PR campaign. And in this context, even the temporary occupation of a separate settlement will be presented as a huge victory and used for the next demands to the West to give bigger and bigger guns.
The only innovation in the tactics of the APU in the last couple of weeks has been more intensive integration with American digital systems. For example, it is from American satellites and from AWACS aircraft that the APU now receives data on aerial targets, and in some cases, presumably, on ground targets. This created the illusion in Kiev that in this way it is possible to ensure the success of a local operation.
This phenomenon is more psychological than military.
In the same way, a little earlier, the Ukrainian leadership convinced itself that the most advanced weapon on earth was the Bayraktar drone. But the successful use of attack drones in Karabakh was a consequence of the special situation in the combat zone, and not at all the unique capabilities of this type of UAV.
Now, in Kiev, the opinion began to develop that modern war is exclusively an artillery duel. Howitzers and MLRS took the place of the Bayraktar. Sometimes it does work, but mostly against the APU. The most accurate example: an attempt of the same local APU offensive north of Nikolaev across the Dnieper at Davydov Ford. Yes, Ukrainian units occupied a farm for half a day, which was defended by one Russian platoon. And in the evening, so many things flew there that the attackers fled back across the river.
In this scenario, the enemy's attempts to organize such a counteroffensive can be welcomed. They can even be provoked in order to quickly and effectively deprive the APU of accumulated reserves.
Another question is that Western analysts believe that it is the Russian Armed Forces and allies who are preparing a new and large-scale offensive operation, and Zelensky's promises to launch a counteroffensive anywhere simply do not correspond to reality.
Evgeny Krutikov
