Military expert Dmitry Kornev — on the prospects of the first heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles
The first Sarmat missile system will be on combat duty at the end of 2022. "We will continue to develop and strengthen our Armed Forces taking into account potential military threats and risks, based on the lessons of modern armed conflicts, and improve their combat strength," Russian President Vladimir Putin said on June 21.
Indeed, plans for 2022 have been announced by both the leadership of the Strategic Missile Forces and the country's top military leadership: the first regiment with Sarmat missiles near Uzhur in the Krasnoyarsk Territory will become part of the strategic missile forces by the end of 2022. It is expected that at least 48 new-generation missiles will be deployed in the mine launchers of the Voevoda heavy liquid ICBMs being decommissioned at the compounds in Uzhur and Yasnoye near Orenburg. Moreover, it is stated that the rearmament will be completed in two years. Very high rates are set on the topic of "Sarmat" — less than a year between the first flight launch of the rocket before taking on combat duty and two more years for the release of a unique rocket in an unprecedented series.
Of course, in the best years of its history, the Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant could have produced 20 or so missiles without any questions, but missiles of such a class as the Sarmat had not been built before either in Krasnoyarsk or in modern Russia at all. By the way, it is quite possible that this caused serious delays in the release of the project to the stage of flight tests. Let me remind you that three specially prepared "Sarmatians" performed the first throwing launches in 2017-2018, and since then every year we have been waiting for the start of flight tests, in which a dozen missiles of the first test series were scheduled to participate.
But, probably, the head developer of Sarmat, the Makeev GRC from Miass, has high hopes for bench testing of components and components, coupled with computer modeling of many processes that occur in such a complex and complex product. At one time, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering tried something similar in the Bulava project, and faced serious criticism in the process of debugging production cooperation. It is likely that the Miass rocket builders have drawn the appropriate conclusions, and the Sarmat will fly with three or four launches. That would be great!
How unique will this rocket be? There are no such missiles in service in any army in the world — and this is a fact. Even the record-breaking rocket of our time, the Voivode, is inferior to the Sarmat in terms of combat effectiveness. The new contender for the No. 1 place in the Russian arsenal will be able to carry more payload and along any possible trajectory (including the global one — through the South Pole) will be able to leave the home area faster in case of counter nuclear strikes, it will be more accurate and more protected both from the damaging factors of nuclear explosions in the area of the launch site, and from a variety of systems missile defense.
Finally, unlike the Voivode, the new Sarmat will carry not one type of combat equipment, but several variants — both conventional ballistic combat units with medium-power thermonuclear warheads, and the latest hypersonic guided combat units, similar in their capabilities to the combat equipment of the Avangard complex.
How many such blocks will "Sarmat" carry? It is clear that this is still closed information, but calculations show that he will be able to throw at least three to five blocks of the Avangard type at an intercontinental range.
What do we have in general with the known characteristics of a heavy liquid ICBM? It is known that the mass of the Sarmat is about 200 tons, and the rocket takes a payload of up to 10 tons to an intercontinental range. This thrown mass includes both combat equipment and a special breeding stage, which performs aiming and directing each of the dozen combat units and modules of anti-missile defense systems to its target.
It is the breeding stage that forms the battle order of an intercontinental missile in space — a combination of blocks, light and heavy false targets, jamming blocks and other means. The high energy of the breeding stage makes it possible to send a smaller payload mass along the same global trajectories — through the South Pole — and in such directions from where no one expects a missile strike.
Of course, the space means of detecting missile launches will see the launch of the Sarmat, but it is impossible to reconfigure the huge radars of the missile attack warning system instantly. Of course, a potential enemy will place missile defense systems on ships, and will be able to cover any missile-dangerous directions, but the capabilities of stationary and ship radars differ markedly in the detection range of rocket and space targets, and in such a confrontation, the gain can be guaranteed by superiority in seconds.
And, finally, if we look at the solution as a whole, then the success of such a nuclear missile strike is piecemeal: something gives an effective ICBM exit from under attack, something brings a global trajectory, something - a set of means to overcome missile defense. And all together provides inevitable retaliation to a potential aggressor.
What will be the appearance of the Strategic Missile Forces after rearmament on the "Sarmatians"? I think that the modernization of the range of missiles in the strategic missile forces will not stop there. The basis of the Russian ICBM grouping consists of solid-fuel mobile medium-class missiles "Yars", each of which carries several warheads. In the future, the "Yars" can get an option with controlled combat units. On their basis, a lighter ICBM can be created, which is capable of targeting potential targets in Europe and Asia. Finally, work can begin on replacing the predecessor of the Yars, the Topol—M monoblock ICBM, with more advanced mobile and mine ICBMs based on the same technology. There are monoblock "Vanguards" — probably, their deployment will stop on two shelves. Experience in the operation of hypersonic combat equipment will be accumulated. This experience will be useful in future modifications of the "Sarmatians", which will certainly appear later.
Gradually, only various variants of "Yars" and "Sarmats" will remain, and this will be a very effective grouping, both from the point of view of production and economic, and from the point of view of combat potential.
This is how the upcoming life path of the new rocket looks like today. And now we are really looking forward to the second and subsequent flight test launches. And then, "under the Christmas tree" — news about the putting on combat duty of the first rocket of the first regiment of the new heavy liquid intercontinental missile "Sarmat".
The author is the editor—in-chief of the MilitaryRussia Internet project
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion