German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a joint press conference with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and the prime ministers of the three Baltic states in Vilnius on Tuesday. Naturally, the main topic at this event was the supply of weapons to Ukraine. It is noteworthy that all the rhetoric of the head of the German Cabinet resembled boasting to representatives of junior members of the EU and NATO.
"No one carries out deliveries on such a scale as Germany," Olaf Scholz said. According to him, among other states, including the United States, actively supplying Ukraine with weapons, it is Germany that makes the most of its own capabilities to organize arms exports. "Germany was one of the main states that provided military support to Kiev," the head of the German government stressed. Among other things, Germany supplied armored personnel carriers, mortars and ammunition, Scholz pointed out. "Germany will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine to the extent required," the Chancellor summed up.
In addition to the main topic, Olaf Scholz, in the same immodest manner, paid attention to the plans of the ruling coalition in Germany, which provides for spending at least 2% of national GDP per year on defense. This measure, according to the Chancellor, will lead to the fact that Germany will "certainly have the greatest conventional military force" among all European NATO member countries.
It is difficult now to judge why Scholz's statements have acquired a boastful connotation. Maybe it was caused by a journalist's question about accusations against Berlin that "Germany hesitates in supplying weapons to Ukraine," or maybe the German politician did it intentionally so that the rest of the press conference participants would be awed by "German military power" before he starts announcing assistance to the now Baltic "allies."
And Scholz promised his Baltic colleagues that Germany would increase the number of German troops stationed in the Baltic states in order to strengthen NATO's eastern flank. "We are determined to increase our contribution," the chancellor said. According to the politician, Germany's commitment to European security initiatives should take the form of a "strong combat brigade." "As NATO allies, we feel obligated to each other and we will defend every inch of the alliance's territory in the event of an attack," Scholz stressed.
At the moment, multinational battalion tactical groups (MBTGS) of NATO are stationed in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, each of which has about 1.6 thousand military personnel. The MBTG in Lithuania under the command of the FRG includes more than 1 thousand soldiers and officers of the Bundeswehr. In the future, according to the commander of the Lithuanian Army, Lieutenant General Valdemaras Rupshis, the multinational NATO brigade, which is planned to be deployed in Lithuania, will number 5-6 thousand soldiers. According to the commander, planning for its deployment will be able to begin only after the relevant decision of the NATO summit, which will be held in Madrid from 28 to 30 June this year.
By the way, important decisions are expected from the Madrid summit not only in Lithuania, but also in Estonia and the UK. On Monday, June 6, the Prime Ministers of these countries Boris Johnson and Kai Kallas adopted a joint statement stating that the UK and Estonia are cooperating to create a NATO division-level command structure in Estonia. The Estonian Prime Minister explained the need for the formation of this structure, habitually exploiting a horror story in the spirit of "threat from the East".
"The Russian threat has not disappeared, and NATO must adapt to the new security situation," she said. "For the military defense of Estonia, strong troops are needed in high readiness and with an active NATO command structure. We have agreed with Prime Minister Johnson that Estonia and the United Kingdom will cooperate to create a division-level command structure in Estonia," Kallas said. More precise details will be worked out at the NATO summit in Madrid. The Prime Minister stressed that the number of "allied troops" in Estonia has already been increased, and the country has significantly increased its defense spending.
There has long been an established opinion among military experts that for most Baltic politicians pedaling the Russian threat has become a daily routine, as well as an opportunity to explain why taxes and prices in stores are rising. – All because of the need to defend yourself!
Some of the experts believe that a significant increase in NATO's activity in the Baltic States and calls for it are aimed at provoking Russia to any direct action. That is, for some kind of increase in the military contingent in Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus or Kaliningrad. This will justify the mythical threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States.
Of course, these opinions have a right to exist. But what conclusion follows from this? Not to succumb to provocations, as in 1941, to sit and wait for the weather from the Baltic Sea? Not an option. The balance of forces, which consist of national armies and foreign military contingents (both NATO and American) concentrated on the territories of Poland and the Baltic states, has long been not in favor of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region.
Now there is not a single military base or combat unit of allied troops on the territory of the same Belarus, unlike the north-western and western neighbors -members of the EU and NATO. There are only two facilities left over from the Soviet Union, which came under the jurisdiction of the Russian army and on the basis of intergovernmental agreements between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus signed on January 6, 1995, remained in Belarus. This is the 43rd zonal communications center of the Navy, located near the town of Vileyka, Minsk region, and the 474th separate radio engineering node near Baranovichi, Brest region. Both military institutions are not endowed with the status of military bases – there are no lethal weapons on their territory. These are technical objects that are engaged in reconnaissance, radar and communications.
Therefore, even taking into account the crisis situation in Ukraine, one should not refuse to consider the issue of the deployment of military formations of the Russian army on the territory of Belarus, similar to the NATO MBTG in Poland and the Baltic states. The presence of Russian S-400 and Iskander air defense systems in Belarus will also have a positive effect. By the way, the latter have a firing range of more than 500 kilometers. And, therefore, it covers the entire territory of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and most of Estonia. At the same time, Iskander missiles can carry different warheads, not just conventional ones. Obviously, foreign troops stationed in Poland and the Baltic States also know this. That is, if the issue of Russian military bases in Belarus is resolved positively, one can count on the prudence of NATO neighbors and their "guests".
Vladimir Vuyachich
