Russia plans to complete the certification of domestic MS-21 and Sukhoi Superjet New aircraft with maximum replacement of imported parts by the end of 2023. This means that in a couple of years Russian airlines will be able to start replacing foreign boards with Russian airliners. However, the process of full rotation of aircraft will not be quick.
"The MS-21 and Sukhoi Superjet New programs are consistently moving forward, despite sanctions and unfair competition. Completion of certification of the MS-21 aircraft with a domestic engine and the Sukhoi Superjet New aircraft with the replacement of 38 imported systems and components with Russian ones is planned by the end of 2023," said Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov at a meeting in Irkutsk.
SSJ-100 with a capacity of 100 passenger seats and a flight range of up to 3 thousand kilometers was created in Russia without the Soviet reserve. However, the machine consists of 70% of foreign components. Therefore, work is underway to replace some of the components with domestic ones. SSJ New is a modification project of the Superjet–100 aircraft with maximum import substitution of components and systems, which the Ministry of Industry and Trade initiated after the introduction of Western sanctions against Russia. The share of Russian components should grow to 50-60%.
The MS-21 is a project of a family of short– and medium-haul jet passenger narrow-body aircraft. This aircraft can carry passengers for 6 thousand kilometers. It is able to replace not only the Tu-154 and Tu-204/214 on the market, but also foreign Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 aircraft.
The SSJ-100 import substitution course was taken, in fact, back in 2018. But in March of this year, after the introduction of aviation sanctions by the West, Industry Minister Denis Manturov instructed to speed up the replacement of imported parts and certification of a new aircraft, reducing the time to 12-14 months.
In 2018, the Russian authorities set a course to replace imported parts with domestic analogues. In particular, the Russian PD-8 engine developed by UEC is planned to be installed on the "Russified" version of the SSJ New aircraft, in which a minimum of imported parts should remain, instead of the Sam146 engine.
"As for the aircraft systems, everything is real. The only thing that can shift the plans for SSJ New is the engine issue. The prototype of the PD-8 engine has not yet been assembled in its entirety, and it has yet to be tested in a flying laboratory.
On the stand, the engine shows good parameters. But when it comes to such a complex aircraft device as an engine, it doesn't always work out the first time. We can recall what problems the European Airbus A320neo had with the engine, how airlines suffered with the engine for two years already during the operation of the aircraft: it had to be modified, there were delays in the delivery of aircraft," explains the head of the industry portal Avia.<url>" Roman Gusarov.
The expert does not exclude that if the certification terms are shifted with the domestic PD-8 engine, then the first SSJ New can be produced for the first time with Sam146 engines. This is the engine of a joint venture between the French Safran and the Russian United Engine Corporation, on which 150 SSJ-100s operated in Russia fly today. By the way, 10 such aircraft will be produced in 2022 (although the market needs twice as many).
"MS-21 will be easier to meet deadlines. Firstly, there are fewer components that need to be imported or replaced with components from friendly countries. Secondly, the most difficult part of the aircraft – the domestic PD-14 engine – is already there," the expert believes.
If the certification of both types of aircraft takes place on time, then in 2024 Russian airlines will receive their first domestic airliners. "This will mean the beginning of a gradual rotation and replacement of foreign aircraft with domestic ones," says Gusarov. However, it will not work overnight to replace foreign cars with domestic aircraft, of course. This process will take more than one year.
"The plant can produce more than 40 Superjet aircraft per year. However, the demand for aircraft of this class today averages 20 aircraft per year. This is what the market needs. Therefore, whether the airliner production plant will be loaded to the maximum depends on the needs of the airlines," the interlocutor says.
If the production facilities for the SSJ have been deployed for a long time, then the production for the MS-21 has yet to be organized. And when the plant starts working, it will gain volumes gradually. "If everything goes according to a good scenario, then in 2024 five MS-21 aircraft will be produced, in 2025 – ten MS-21, in 2026 - 20 airliners, in 2027 – 40, and only in 2028 the plant will be able to produce 70-75 MS-21 per year. And then airlines will be able to feel a noticeable influx of new mainline aircraft," the interlocutor argues.
According to the expert, it will take about 12 years to completely replace the current fleet of mainline foreign cars from airlines, which is about 700 aircraft, with domestic MS-21s. In the first five years, 150 MS-21s could potentially be produced, and in the next seven years (from 2029 to 2035) – 525 such airliners.
However, it is quite difficult to predict how air transportation will change in 10-12 years. "According to statistics, before the pandemic, the world aviation doubled the volume of traffic every 15 years. Russia has tripled air transportation in 15 years. If all the crisis moments go away, and Russia continues to develop at a faster pace, then perhaps in a decade we will need not 700, but 1000 or 1500 aircraft. Then foreign cars will not drop out of the fleet of carriers, and we will talk about expanding the fleet at the expense of new domestic aircraft," says the head of <url>.
In general, there is potential for the development of air transportation even within Russia. "With our population size and our long distances, we fly quite a bit compared to Europe. We can fly more," the expert believes. But much, of course, will depend on the development of the transportation economy and the solvency of Russians.
In 2021, Russian airlines transported 111 million passengers. This is less than it was in 2019, when a record of 128 million passengers was set. However, last year a course was taken to restore passenger traffic. This year, the Ministry of Transport expects a slight increase in the flow within Russia – up to 90 million passengers (against 87.5 million last year) and a decrease in the flow on the international route from 23 million in 2021 to 10 million in 2022. However, there are more pessimistic expectations in the market. Air transportation this year will be reduced by one and a half times – up to 70 million passengers, says Vitaly Vantsev, co-owner of Vnukovo and Azimut Airlines.
However, all this is not a reason to stop the aviation industry. On the contrary, the sanctions agenda dictates to Russia the urgent need to reduce dependence on Western aircraft manufacturers.
"Russia has many motivations to remain an aviation power. Own aircraft construction is necessary both from the point of view of strategic security and from the point of view of the needs of the population. We simply need equipment that can be operated in our conditions.
Because the vast majority of Western aircraft are not adapted for operation in severe climatic conditions, neither in range nor in frost resistance. We need our own aviation industry to ensure our own economy and ensure the connectivity and mobility of the population," Roman Gusarov argues.
After all, Russia has to pay $ 1 billion for only 10 Western aircraft, which support Western industry, their jobs and well-being. Whereas this money could work for the benefit of the Russian economy.
The situation is aggravated by the change in the global reorganization of the world order. "When the world is divided into two parallel hemispheres, in the world where Russia remains, we will have no one to count on in terms of aviation, except ourselves. On the other side there are "Boings" and "Airbases", and on our side, except for Russia with its scientific and industrial school, there is no one. In the end, we will be able to sell not only oil and gas, but also our own technological products," the interlocutor concludes.
Olga Samofalova
