The United States seems to have decided to further raise the stakes in the Ukrainian conflict – it was decided to supply Kiev with weapons of terrible destructive power. The M142 Himars missile systems are comparable to the Russian Iskanders and can give Ukraine the opportunity to strike far into the territory of Russia. But this is theoretical. What will actually happen?
The administration of US President Joe Biden has approved the dispatch of long-range multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Ukraine. The American editions of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal write about this with links to their sources in the White House.
The transfer is likely to be officially announced next week. CNN was the first to report on future deliveries. Then Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby refused on Friday to confirm whether such a decision had been made, but clarified that, if necessary, the cargo could be transferred to Ukraine within 48 hours. Military transport aircraft C-130 "Hercules" are suitable for this.
The sources do not disclose details about which samples are planned to be transferred to Kiev. It is known that these will be mobile rocket launchers with a much longer firing range than the Ukrainian army uses now. American observers assume that the Pentagon will hand over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) high–precision weapons with satellite guidance - M31 GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System) missiles with a firing range of more than 60 kilometers and a 98% hit accuracy. According to the US Congress, since 1998, the Pentagon has spent approximately 5.4 billion dollars to purchase more than 42 thousand such missiles for MLRS M270 MLRS and M142 Himars.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and members of the Ukrainian government have repeatedly stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces need multiple launch rocket systems M142 and M270, they literally begged the Americans to give them these weapons. The main part of the rocket artillery of Ukraine falls on Soviet developments with a firing range of no more than several tens of kilometers. Some of them have been slightly upgraded. The APU has now received several RM-70 MLRS from the Czech Republic. These are Cold War-era systems for firing 122-mm Soviet rocket projectiles at a distance of up to 20 kilometers.
Earlier, the Biden administration repeatedly responded to all these requests from Kiev with a refusal. There were disagreements among representatives of the administration about the fact that due to the increase in the firing range and the ability to strike at the territory of Russia, the Russian leadership may consider such supplies provocative. But now the White House says that the United States will be able to reasonably argue that they are not giving Ukraine the opportunity to strike deep into Russian territory.
The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with RT Arabic, said that the supply of weapons to Ukraine that are capable of striking at the territory of the Russian Federation would be a step towards an unacceptable escalation of hostilities. "The West has called for Russia to be defeated on the battlefield, and for this it is necessary to continue the war, to pump up weapons of Ukrainian nationalists, the Ukrainian regime, including weapons that can reach the Russian Federation. It is precisely such weapons that Zelensky publicly demands," Lavrov said.
Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov warned that if Ukraine places Himars and MLRS MLRS near the Russian borders, the Russian Armed Forces "will take the necessary steps to reset the capabilities of the Armed Forces." "At the moment, we proceed from the statement of Pentagon spokesman John Kirby that a final decision on this issue has not been made. We hope common sense will prevail – and Washington will not take such a provocative step," Antonov stressed.
He recalled that through diplomatic channels, Russia has repeatedly brought to the United States "that the unprecedented pumping of Ukraine with weapons significantly increases the risks of escalation of the conflict." "The Americans are well aware that by their actions they are delaying the prospects of achieving peace. The United States is getting deeper into the crisis in Ukraine. This is fraught with unpredictable consequences for global security," Antonov stressed.
What are Himars (M142) multiple launch rocket systems? This launcher is mounted on a wheeled chassis instead of the tracked M270. This design allows you to move faster after firing. However, it carries half as many missiles – six instead of twelve for the M270.
The firing range varies depending on the ammunition. GMLRS-Unitary high-precision missiles can reach a range of more than 70 kilometers. MGM-140 (ATACMS) surface–to-surface missiles are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. It is this range that is provided for export options, in case of needs for the Americans themselves, missiles can hit targets within a radius of 500 kilometers. Himars trucks can carry a container loaded with either six GMLRS missiles or one larger guided tactical missile. According to military expert, director of the Museum of Air Defense Forces Yuri Knutov, such a missile is close in characteristics to the Russian Iskander complex.
"The use of a wheeled chassis gives an advantage in the summer, especially taking into account the developed road network of Ukraine. Wheeled vehicles have a fairly high cross-country ability and higher speed characteristics. But the main advantage of such equipment in comparison with tracked – driver training. A bus driver or a heavy truck driver can be retrained in two or three days," says Knutov.
Dmitry Drozdenko, a columnist for the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, a military expert, agrees that it is easier to drive wheeled vehicles with tracked vehicles. "But special training is required for shooting, otherwise the cadets would not have studied in military schools for several years," the expert noted, assuming that instructors from those countries where the M142 is in service, for example, from Romania, would be in Ukraine.
Another feature of these systems is that each missile is preloaded into a disposable launch tube and such a cartridge with projectiles can be quickly installed on a truck. This, according to American experts, gives an advantage over Russian artillery missile systems, in which missiles must be loaded one at a time. A block of six GMLRS missiles can be launched in a few seconds and is capable of causing the same damage as an airstrike with guided bombs.
Knutov considers the main danger of the M142 to be the possibility of using missiles of different ranges, but the missiles intended for delivery to Ukraine mean that the APU will receive analogues of the Russian MLRS "Smerch" and "Hurricane". But even with such equipment, these weapons can affect the course of battles. And if strikes are carried out on the territory of the Russian Federation, then Russia "may have grounds to use all possible means, including tactical nuclear weapons." "That's why even in the West they talk about the inadmissibility of escalation. Moreover, Russia will have grounds to strike at decision–making centers – these are Kiev, headquarters, the office of the President of Ukraine, etc.," the expert says.
Drozdenko agrees that the supply of such weapons will mean a "new round of confrontation", and from a political point of view, the conflict will move to a new level. "But I think that these installations will not reach the front. If strikes start deep into our territory, the situation will become completely unpredictable," warns Drozdenko.
The interlocutor believes that Russia can use the Bal, Bastion, and Iskander operational and tactical missile systems as tools for hitting such complexes.
The decision of the Americans to supply long-range MLRS is caused by the fact that they are unable to reverse the situation in Ukraine. "The Russian VSK and ground forces are acting so effectively that they knock out more equipment than they receive, and the Ukrainians do not get superiority," Knutov explained.
For Russia, the main task is to identify equipment supplied to Ukraine when crossing the border, it is necessary to "destroy it in logistics centers, in storage warehouses." "Two or three dozen such installations on the battlefield are dangerous. But Poland has already ordered 500 M142 from the USA. The country does not need so much, that is, Warsaw ordered in advance, taking into account supplies to Ukraine. Therefore, it is not even necessary for the Americans to carry out such deliveries themselves, Warsaw will do it for them. So Poland may be directly involved in the Ukrainian conflict," the expert warns.
However, Drozdenko is confident that these complexes will not decide the outcome of the war in any case. "In order for these weapons to somehow affect the fighting, the United States must supply 200 pieces of these MLRS. The delivery of several dozen units does not solve anything against a huge array of artillery. Wars are won by quantity. The amount of barrel artillery that we have concentrated there is enough to destroy everything there at all... It's just our "neatness". And how many boxes of shells do these American MLRS need? These are whole compositions of ammunition. All this will need to be delivered," Drozdenko explained.
Andrey Rezchikov
