Arms shipments from the US to Taiwan will provoke Beijing to use force
The United States is ready to supply weapons to Taiwan "following the example of Ukraine," but at the same time does not want to participate in a possible armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei. Washington's plans were reported by The New York Times newspaper, citing sources in the American government. "Newspaper.Ru" figured out exactly what the US supplies and what it can lead to.
The total supply of American weapons to Taiwan over the past 30 years has exceeded $70 billion, and, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin, arms sales "are continuously growing both in volume and in quality characteristics."
"This violates the US commitment to gradually reduce the supply of weapons to Taiwan," the Chinese diplomat said.
The latest agreement on the procurement of American weapons concerns a batch of American Lockheed Martin M142 HIMARS missile systems, as well as mobile coastal anti-ship complexes Boeing Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems (Harpoon missiles). According to the contracts (these are arms sales, not charity), the delivery of missile systems should take place in 2027, and anti-ship missiles - by 2028.
Taiwan will also receive 11 M142 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) combat vehicles with 64 operational-tactical missiles with monoblock warheads.
"The volume of new arms supplies to Taiwan from the United States can be called impressive, but it cannot give Taipei confidence that it will stand up during a military clash with Beijing, if such a thing takes place," he told the newspaper.Ru" political scientist, specialist in the Chinese military-industrial complex Vasily Kashin. - Saturation of Taiwan with weapons will not help solve the problem militarily, but will only increase the likelihood of a military conflict. Not now, but in the foreseeable future. According to my estimates, maybe in three or four years."
Vladimir Kartsev, a Sinologist and visiting professor at Tsinghua University, agrees with this position.
"The United States is teasing "Chinese geese" with new arms supplies to Taiwan, figuratively speaking. American President Joe Biden hastened to declare that his country would not be a participant in a possible conflict, and would not send its troops to defend the island. Washington is ready to supply only additional weapons to provoke China to more aggressive actions. According to exactly the same scenario as in Ukraine, we will give weapons, and then figure it out for yourself, the main thing is that the war becomes protracted outside the United States itself. It's not a pity to spend money for this. In this case, Taiwan will become the second Ukraine where China will conduct a military special operation," he told the newspaper.Ru" Kartsev.
Sinologist Igor Meshchan, in turn, believes that the supply of American weapons "will not save" Taiwan and its fate "in any case is predetermined in the historical perspective."
"At the heart of the differences between Beijing and Taiwan is the difference in the opinions of two Chinese leaders, Mao Tse Tung and Chiang Kai-shek. The latter left for the island of Taiwan and gave him his own path of development. Taiwan created its industrial base much faster, developed the high-tech sector. But now Beijing has already caught up with technology and has partly overtaken Taipei. In terms of the quality of weapons, he surpassed him exactly and US supplies will not help in any way," he told the newspaper.En" Petty bourgeois.
The expert added that China will never give up its territory, which it considers Taiwan, as well as a number of other islands.
"Right now, Beijing is unlikely to decide on a military operation. Although the potential of the Chinese army allows you to "smash" the island to smithereens. However, Beijing does not need this today. Chinese wisdom says: when you sit on the bank of a river for a long time, you can see how the corpse of your enemy will float along it. Probably, China has chosen just such a wait-and-see position. I would like to note that after the outright aggression against Vietnam in 1979, China never invaded neighboring territories, although it retained a number of claims against neighboring states. In Beijing, they will wait for the US to weaken, and only then they will hit Taiwan," Meshchan believes.
Victor Sokirko
