The dubious deal between Kiev and Ankara partially succeeded
Turkey is trying to create its own high-tech weapons. One of such systems is the HISAR anti–aircraft missile complex. Photos from the website www.aselsan.com.tr
A leak in a number of Turkish and Ukrainian media sheds light on the list of weapons that Kiev demands from the European Union. In this case, it is essential that Kiev shows interest in Turkish weapons and military equipment. And this nomenclature goes beyond the military drones and ammunition already supplied by Ankara.
The Ukrainian media published a 14-page document addressed to the Diplomatic Service of the European Union and the Director General of the EU Military Headquarters, which listed weapons and military equipment urgently needed by Kiev.
The document was prepared by the Deputy head of the Mission of Ukraine to the EU Irina Efremova. Two diplomatic sources familiar with the matter said that the list is most likely genuine and was prepared in the early days of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine.
WHAT KIEV WANTED
Despite the fact that the list is already two months old, its contents show that Kiev demanded billions of dollars worth of Turkish military hardware from Brussels.
The European Union has previously imposed several sanctions against Turkey because of Ankara's attack on the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG, which is a Western ally in the fight against the Islamic State group (banned in Russia) and is closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey, the EU and the United States consider a terrorist organization.
The IWT in this list were divided into two levels of urgency. In the list of urgent requests, dubbed the "first priority list of military equipment," Ukraine requested several Turkish air defense systems, such as eight units of the Korkut self-propelled anti-aircraft installation and 80 thousand shells for them. It also included advanced air defense systems, including eight batteries of HISAR-O medium-range anti-aircraft missiles and 720 HISAR-O missiles.
Ukraine has also requested three Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, five Bayraktar drone mobile ground data terminals, four Bayraktar drone ground control stations and five Bayraktar drone portable ground control stations. Ukraine had at least 20 Bayraktar TB2s when the fighting began, but was still looking for increased supplies.
TURKISH DRONES IN THE SKY OF UKRAINE
Some experts believe that Ankara has supplied Kiev with six to 12 more drones by the time of the start of Russia's special military operation on February 24. Ukraine's requirements also included ammunition used by Bayraktar TV2, including 500 MAM-S multifunctional missiles and 500 MAM-L missiles.
Ukraine and Turkey closely cooperate in the defense industry, and these relations have expanded in recent years. The manufacturer of Bayraktar TB2, Baykar Makipa, which has close ties with the family of Turkish President Recep Erdogan, built a factory in Ukraine before the outbreak of hostilities. Ukrainian companies produce engines for the advanced Akinci UAV, and Turkey, again, has sold more than two dozen Bayraktar TV2S to Kiev over the past two years.
In this regard, we note that the number of Turkish drones already destroyed (at least according to the Russian Ministry of Defense) far exceeds this number. It seems that the request of the Ukrainian side for the supply of UAVs was at least partially satisfied due to the complex scheme of their sale formally to Poland and Slovakia. Frequent flights between Turkey and Poland over the past two months indicate that Ankara continued to supply Bayraktar TB2 and ammunition to the Ukrainian army.
Yusuf Akbaba, a Turkish expert on the defense industry, believes in this regard that Turkey is able to supply the requested UAVs and equipment, but there are some reservations. "Some of the requirements are unrealistic, such as 720 HISAR-O missiles, since even the Turkish military does not have such an amount of ammunition in its arsenal," he said.
IMMODEST DESIRES OF THE SECOND STAGE
In the list of secondary priorities of Kiev, there were even more requests for Turkish military equipment. Some of them are electronic warfare systems – for example, six units of the V/UHF suppression system MILKAR-3A3 and 14 units of the RF suppression system MILKAR-4A2. Turkish jamming systems combined with drone strikes have proven effective against Russian weapons in Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya. That is why Ukraine has also requested ten Bayraktar electronic warfare modules from the EU. The list also includes five units of the less well-known, but effective Turkish combat UAV Anka-S.
Yusuf Akbaba points out that Ukraine's requests for IWT are estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars. And eight units of the HISAR air defense system and missiles to it would cost more than a billion dollars.
Akbaba added that some of the systems, such as electronic means of suppression, belong to sensitive technologies and Turkey is unlikely to supply them. "It seems that Ukraine had plans to create a multi-level air defense umbrella, as it sought to organize armed offensive actions of drones against Russian targets supported by electronic warfare capabilities. This Turkish concept has proven itself in Syria and Karabakh and can be really effective against the Russians in the Donbas," the Turkish expert believes.
Any deliveries of Turkish military equipment to Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities have been secret. And there is still no official confirmation that weapons or ammunition have been delivered.
The same Turkish sources reported that Ukraine separately submitted a list of requests for military equipment directly to Turkey, but did not disclose details or the fact of these deliveries. In this case, we venture to assume that the leak of this list means that the deal for all the nomenclature desired by Kiev (with the exception of drones) did not take place.
YOUR BUDGET – OUR IDEAS
Again, we venture to assume that Kiev and Ankara in this case pursued different goals. Kiev wanted to get relatively simple technically weapons at the expense of European money, so as not to waste time on training personnel. And the Turks wanted to push through the Westerners' arms embargo in this way: Western components are needed for all these systems. And, of course, both sides wanted to earn extra money on this deal at the expense of the EU and US budgets.
At the same time, Turkish air defense systems are hardly more effective than Russian similar systems already available in Ukraine. In other words, Kiev, with the support of Ankara, lobbied in the West for the organization of a supply channel for Turkish military hardware "worth billions of dollars." Which gave Ankara a way out from under the Western embargo, further normalization of relations with the collective West and serious income to the budget.
And doubts about the ability of the Turkish defense industry to fulfill this order do not look like a convincing argument. I would have done it if Ankara had been given components and money. However, in this case, it can be stated with all reason that in the West they did not go for this option and decided to earn extra money themselves. Or rather, they went only with regard to drones.
In this context, several factors were taken into account, among which it should be noted the effectiveness of these drones (for example, strikes on ships and infrastructure off the island of Zmeiny), which makes them universal and the cheapest weapon of this class for hitting targets on Russian territory. And secondly, this option allows the West not to send its drones to Ukraine, which, in addition to problems with bureaucracy, also has the risks of secret technologies falling into Moscow's hands.
As a result, there remains the option of partially lifting the Western embargo on the supply of components for drones to the Turks and financing their supplies to Ukraine.
In addition, some sources from the Turkish private defense industry reported that they did not want to sell their products to Kiev because of transactional problems. If you decipher it, then the West refused to finance all Kiev's requests – and it does not have its own money.
TURKEY'S PROBLEMS
Meanwhile, Turkey's military power is losing in other areas against the background of the Ukrainian crisis. Thus, the Ministry of Defense of Turkey has published updated data on the number of personnel dismissed from the Armed Forces of the country since 2016.
After the failed coup on July 15, 2016, the Turkish government regularly dismisses officers, non-commissioned officers and civilian personnel on charges of membership in the so-called FETÖ (a term used by the Erdogan government to refer to the religious movement of Fethullah Gulen as an extremist organization). The dismissal of officers does not require a court decision. It is noteworthy that about five times more officers were dismissed from the Turkish Armed Forces than were allegedly involved in the coup attempt.
Nationalist-minded retired officers and political groups loyal to the government persistently claim that these officers tried to carry out a coup in Turkey on the orders of NATO. And they welcome the purges carried out over the past years in the armed Forces of the country, simultaneously demanding that Turkey withdraw from NATO.
According to updated data released on April 1, a total of 24,339 servicemen of the Turkish Armed Forces have been dismissed since 2016. At the moment, an administrative process is underway to dismiss another 1,079 officers, who are likely to be removed from their posts in the coming days. In addition, 3,213 retired officers were stripped of their ranks, as if they had never served in the military.
Henri Barki, director of the Middle East Program at the Washington Wilson Center, previously stated that many generals dismissed by the Turkish government took the pro-NATO and pro-American side, anticipating a possible shift in relations between Turkey and NATO. Barki later faced charges of aiding FETÖ in an attempt to overthrow the government in 2020, and a warrant was issued for his arrest.
In conclusion, we note that, according to the unwritten practice of the Turkish Armed Forces, colonels who are staff officers who graduated from prestigious military academies usually received the rank of general. They spoke at least one foreign language, received a master's degree in non-military fields of activity and received special training in military strategy, tactics and troop management. They were often sent on foreign business trips, especially within the framework of NATO, and military attaches were chosen from among them.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.