Finland and Sweden officially apply to NATO on Wednesday. However, the Swedes made a reservation that they join the alliance purely formally, they refuse to host nuclear missiles and foreign military bases. Russia has already threatened both countries with diplomatic and military retaliatory measures, but will react to the approach of the North Atlantic Alliance to its northern borders differently than in the case of Ukraine.
The Finnish parliament on Tuesday approved the idea of joining NATO – 188 deputies voted in favor, only eight opposed. Swedish Foreign Minister Anne Linde also signed an application to NATO, it will be submitted together with the Finnish one on Wednesday. And on Thursday, US President Joe Biden promises to host Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto at the White House.
Sweden and Finland are making a historic choice when deciding to join NATO. This was announced on Tuesday by King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden, speaking on the occasion of the state visit of the President of Finland to Stockholm. "Sweden intends to join the NATO defense alliance at the same time and in agreement with Finland. This is a historic choice that we are making shoulder to shoulder with a fraternal country," the king said. – Our two countries face a number of problems both in the short and long term. This gives our meeting a more serious framework, and also means opportunities for consensus and in-depth cooperation in order to become even stronger together."
However, it should be recalled that Sweden, when submitting its application, immediately opposed the deployment of military bases and nuclear weapons on its territory, as stated in the statement of the ruling Social Democratic Party there. In Finland, the authorities do not make such a reservation.
Chinese experts have already suggested that after joining NATO, Sweden and Finland will find themselves in an "American trap", this will lead to a further deterioration of the security situation in Europe, RIA Novosti reports with reference to the Global Times. Cui Hongjian, head of the European department of the Chinese Institute of International Studies, said that the United States will now be able to deploy strategic weapons in these states. However, so far, the expert notes, neither Moscow nor Helsinki and Stockholm are going to increase tensions in relations for the sake of Washington's interests.
"In any case, Russia will react to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the only question is the degree of rigidity of this response.
If the alliance bases appear on the territory of these countries, then Russia will respond by deploying missile systems, including those with nuclear weapons, as well as air defense systems that will be aimed at the territory of Finland and Sweden," political analyst Marat Bashirov told the VZGLYAD newspaper. He explained that the alliance's weapons deployed on the territory of these Scandinavian countries would pose a direct threat to Russia.
At the same time, Bashirov believes, it is hardly worth imposing sanctions separately against Finland and Sweden, prohibiting, for example, mutual tourism. "The issue of imposing some sanctions is not a matter of resentment, but a security issue. As soon as some new threat to the security of the territory of Russia and its citizens appears, then counter measures will only be taken," the expert explained. According to him, Moscow could introduce restrictive measures, tighten the customs and visa regime – but immediately with respect to all NATO countries, not just the two new members.
The entry of two new countries into NATO will not fundamentally change the situation in the region, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at the educational marathon "New Horizons". According to him, the alliance has already taken into account the territory of Finland and Sweden for many years when planning military advance to the east.
In turn, Sergey Ryabkov, Lavrov's deputy, explained why Moscow is calm about the entry of its northern neighbors into NATO. "If we had reacted differently, it would have been: "Look how the Russians are hysterically reacting – it means that this decision has hurt them." You see, they don't know what they want. They suffer from their own misunderstanding of what the future world is," he said.
The day before, speaking at the CSTO summit, President Vladimir Putin said that the decision of Helsinki and Stockholm in itself does not threaten Russia. "As for the expansion, including at the expense of the new members of the alliance – Finland and Sweden, Russia has no problems with these states. Therefore, in this sense, expansion at the expense of these countries does not pose an immediate threat to Russia," he said. Nevertheless, "the expansion of military infrastructure to this territory will certainly provoke our response," the Russian leader promised. Moscow will determine what this reaction will be based on the threats that will be created, he added.
Shortly after the president's speech, the press service of the Foreign Ministry also stated that Russia would be forced to take steps that would depend on the conditions of integration of each new member into the alliance. And Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov recalled that Russia has no territorial disputes with Scandinavian candidates for NATO - unlike Ukraine. "While Ukraine could potentially become a member of NATO, and then Russia would have a territorial dispute with a state that participates in the alliance," Peskov was quoted by TASS as saying.
But American diplomacy used Helsinki's decision as a convenient excuse to once again invite Ukraine into the alliance. The US Charge d'affaires in Kiev, Kristina Queen, said that Ukraine could, following the example of Finland, join NATO immediately, bypassing the stage of the MAP (Membership Action Plan). "As for the possibility of Finland joining without a MAP, the Membership Action Plan has never been a legal requirement for joining NATO, which means that Ukraine can also join the alliance without a MAP," Queen reasoned.
Putin's position is logical and understandable, says Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council. "There are candidate countries that run ahead of the locomotive, insist that they host NATO bases, conduct joint exercises and so on. But other countries wishing to join the alliance are taking a more restrained position. For example, the Finns can say that they already have a strong army. Last year Helsinki bought a large batch of F-35 fighter jets from the United States. Following this logic, they do not need to strengthen their combat potential at the expense of foreign contingents. Sweden seems to be acting according to the same logic. For Stockholm and Helsinki, membership in the alliance is more of a political than a military–technical solution," the expert explains.
Moscow's reaction to the entry of its northern neighbors into NATO is really different from the response to similar attempts by Ukraine, according to Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs. "Ukraine was openly Russophobic, its authorities severed all ties with Russia, forbade people to speak their native Russian and rapidly armed themselves to then act against our country. As for Finland and Sweden, they have a different position. I am sure that Finland will be interested in further preserving our relations," the senator said. He believes that Helsinki will refuse to deploy the alliance's military infrastructure on its territory, and will also not allow the deployment of nuclear weapons.
"I hope that the long–established ties between our countries will work, and Finland and Sweden will no longer engage in such a rabid anti-Russian policy as Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states," he hopes. The senator noted that Russia had no confrontation with Finland and Sweden, and the decision to join these countries in the alliance was pushed from Washington. "I think they were very lured and frightened by the "Russian threat." Apparently, the pressure was increasing. Do not forget that these countries are members of the European Union and it is difficult for them to spoil relations with other Western countries," the senator stressed.
Sweden will now join the large nuclear–free club of European NATO member countries, explains Kortunov, recalling that there are not so many NATO countries in Europe where American nuclear weapons are located. "There are nuclear weapons from the United States in Germany, Italy and Turkey – at the Incirlik airbase. The deployment of the alliance's nuclear weapons requires separate agreements between the countries of possible deployment and the countries that have these weapons. In this case, it should be an agreement between the United States, Finland and Sweden. If the same Sweden does not want to, then it will be almost impossible to force it," says the general director of the INF.
"Washington and Brussels have previously established different forms of cooperation with NATO for Stockholm and Helsinki. The US insisted on the participation of Sweden and Finland in NATO peacekeeping operations – in particular, in the US operation in Afghanistan. In general, Washington advertised NATO membership in Sweden and Finland in every possible way. The fact that the issue of Finland and Sweden's membership in NATO can be resolved within a few weeks suggests that Washington has been ready for this for at least a long time, and at most has been contributing to this for a long time," concluded Kortunov.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced our country's withdrawal from the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS). On the eve and in the Federal Assembly announced the withdrawal from the Parliamentary Conference of the Baltic Sea. Experts believe that this demarche is indirectly related to the decision of Finland and Sweden to join NATO. As political scientist Alexander Nosovich told the VZGLYAD newspaper, "The CBSS is not the first and not the last international organization from which Russia is withdrawing."
Artur Priymak, Denis Korobeynikov