NATO's expansion to the northeast has an unexpected strong opponent. The Turkish leader strongly opposed the entry of Finland and Sweden into the alliance. Erdogan, who has the second-strongest army of the alliance, unexpectedly attacked the geographically distant Scandinavians with sharp criticism. What caused the Turkish demarche and what price will Ankara ask for permission for the Finns and Swedes to join the alliance?
Ankara does not yet have a positive opinion on the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday. He noted that he was "following the process" of the possible accession of two neutral Scandinavian countries to the alliance. A little later, Washington promised to follow Erdogan. "We are working to clarify Turkey's position," said Karen Donfried, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. But note that the Turkish leader expressed Ankara's position quite clearly.
"Before that, there was a mistake in connection with Greece," Erdogan said, referring to the admission of Turkey's main regional opponent to NATO (note that both countries became members of the alliance 70 years ago, and then, in 1952, Turkey and Greece were accepted "in one package"). "You know about the behavior of Greece in the alliance towards Turkey. We do not want to make a second mistake," Erdogan stressed. And explained: "Scandinavian countries have a habit of providing a "hospitable attitude" to terrorists, letting them into parliament. Therefore, we cannot look positively at it yet."
From Erdogan's point of view, some European states (he pointed to Sweden and the Netherlands) have become "guest houses" for terrorist organizations that are already "nesting" in parliaments, the Anadolu news agency notes. The Turkish leader mentioned two structures banned in Turkey – the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the left-wing radical group Revolutionary People's Liberation Party – Front. Apparently, he connects Scandinavian politicians of Kurdish origin with them. The "penetration into parliament" of Kurdish activists has indeed taken place recently. In 2018, six representatives of the Kurdish community were immediately elected to the Swedish Riksdag from various parties. It is believed that the vote of an independent MP, Kurdish communist Amina Kakabave, was decisive in the election of the current Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in November last year.
Experts note: the Turkish leader listed Ankara's claims and thereby summed up the basis for possible bargaining with NATO partners (and primarily with the United States) about the price of Turkey's consent to accept two geographically distant Scandinavian states. Recall that the alliance sends an invitation to the candidate countries to join only after all 30 member countries of the military bloc have voted in favor. "They do not join NATO, but invite, that is, Finland and Sweden's desire to become members of the alliance is not enough.
And within the framework of the alliance, Turkey is now the only country with the political resource to set conditions for the Americans.",
Timofey Bordachev, Program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, told VZGLYAD newspaper.
Earlier, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic unexpectedly showed obstinacy, promising to block the adoption of Finland and Sweden. But, according to experts, neither Croatia nor Hungary (whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban is trying to lead an independent line in the EU and NATO) have sufficient political power to impose their agenda on the "Scandinavian issue". In Croatia, the last word remains with the Sabor – parliament, where President Milanovic does not have sufficient resources (let's add the opposition from the strictly pro-Atlanticist Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovic). As for Hungary, Budapest does not object at all to the ethnically close Finland joining the alliance, political analyst Said Gafurov noted. Turkey remains.
According to Gafurov, Ankara will bargain with Washington. "Erdogan put it that way – we will carefully analyze, think and disassemble... There will be deals, starting with the issuance of political opponents and ending with loans to support the Turkish elite. There are a million possibilities out there. Erdogan is waiting for a package offer to be made to him," the expert noted. The Turkish leader has now mentioned Kurdish activists in European countries, but Erdogan regularly recalls his other opponent – the Islamic preacher and politician Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the United States. It is Gulen and the "Gulenists" whom Erdogan considers responsible for organizing the 2016 coup that the Turkish president demands to be extradited from the United States.
"Ankara may also demand some concessions from Washington in the Middle East direction," Bordachev said. Recall that the interests of Washington and Ankara in the region clearly do not coincide: the United States is traditionally considered the patron of the Kurdish regional autonomies in Northern Iraq and Northeastern Syria (Rojava), while Turkey regards these territories as springboards for the "terrorist" Kurdish Workers' Party. Ankara is seeking to strengthen its military and political presence in the border areas occupied by its army in the north-west and north of Syria. It should be noted that in November last year, information appeared in Turkish social networks that "the United States offered the Turkish leadership to cede a number of areas in northern Syria in order to convince Turkey to cooperate more actively against Russia in the Black Sea."
Last but not least, Turkey's consent can be bought at the price of any arms deals. "Turkey's support for Ukraine, primarily through the export of armed drones, has given Ankara the opportunity to clean up its tarnished image," the American Defense News portal reported on May 4. This refers to Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 complexes, after which Ankara was excluded from the F-35 fighter modernization program.
The Turkish side "can convince Congress to authorize the purchase of about six billion dollars worth of 40 F-16 fighter jets and about 80 sets from Lockheed Martin to modernize its existing fleet," a Defense News source said. "We need to talk and work with Turkey and other [countries] that are working with us against Russia," Gregory Meeks, head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told the publication. This congressman from the ruling Democratic Party believes that the Turkish authorities "have demonstrated some actions in the right direction," although certain positions of Ankara still "irritate" the American side.
In addition, demonstrating a strong will in dialogue with the main partner in NATO, Erdogan solves domestic political issues, experts say. As Gafurov noted, under the conditions of external pressure from the United States and the EU, the Turkish leader is interested in early presidential elections (according to the plan, they should be held in 2023), which will legitimize his power for the next term.
In any case, Erdogan, haggling, will be able to "indefinitely" delay the ratification of the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, the interlocutor noted. "In NATO, not everything is clear at all. It is still unknown what position France, Hungary and other junior members of the alliance will take. Everyone looks at this question differently. Another thing is that Erdogan does not have the position to categorically resist," Gafurov added.
The Turkish president will seek to make the issue of Sweden and Finland's membership in NATO a subject of negotiations with Washington and Brussels, but in the end "Turkey will not veto" the admission of two former neutrals to the alliance, Turkish political scientist and economist, former Turkish trade representative to Russia Aydin Sezer told TASS. In his opinion, Ankara "may try to slow down this process, but in the end, it seems to me, President Tayyip Erdogan will not be able to form a force capable of opposing the United States and NATO."
Meanwhile, the procedure for Sweden and Finland's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance is methodically moving forward. On Friday, a report prepared by all eight parliamentary parties on the country's potential membership in NATO was presented in the Riksdag – the Swedish Parliament. In particular, the document states that joining the alliance will increase the security of Sweden. Foreign Minister Anne Linde, at a press conference held after the presentation of the report, said that if Sweden joins NATO, it will become part of the alliance's collective security system. This report will be an important basis for the government's decision on NATO – its announcement is scheduled for Monday, May 16.
Finland has the same situation – in case of a positive decision of the parliament, the country will apply for NATO membership "in the middle of next week," Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said. The minister said that his country aspires to "peace on the border" with Russia, but "must be prepared for the fact that anything can happen." In his opinion, the transition period before joining NATO can be "really dangerous", but Finland believes that "there is unlikely to be any confusion", given the support of the UK and other European countries. However, as Haavisto stated, "we need to be prepared for this situation as well."
Daria Volkova, Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Mikhail Moshkin