Belarus sent a group of Special Operations Forces to its southern borders in response to the creation of a 20,000-strong group of troops by Kiev. Minsk has sent another part of its forces to the western borders, near which Poland is conducting exercises. What mission is the Belarusian army currently carrying out and can it, if necessary, join Russia's special operation in Ukraine?
"A group created by the armed forces of Ukraine in the southern operational direction with a total number of up to 20 thousand people... He demands a reaction from us," the head of the Belarusian General Staff, First Deputy Minister of Defense of the republic Viktor Gulevich said on Wednesday. According to him, in the southern direction, the units of the Special Operations Forces (SSO) of Belarus are "deployed in three tactical directions." Let's explain: the southern operational direction of the Armed Forces of Belarus is, in fact, the southern regions of the republic bordering Ukraine.
Major General Gulevich also stated that NATO continues to increase its military presence at the borders of the republic. He noted that "the created grouping has more than doubled in both quantitative and qualitative terms over the past six months." Gulevich recalled that in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Defender Europe exercises are underway with the participation of about 20 thousand military personnel. In parallel, seven more exercises are taking place on the territory of the alliance countries.
Battalion tactical groups of the Belarusian army have been put forward to check the immediate response forces to the western and north-western operational directions. "To strengthen them, air defense units, missile troops and artillery are being put forward, which will ensure their combat operation," Gulevich said. Geographically, the western and north-western operational areas of the Armed Forces of Belarus are areas bordering Poland and the two Baltic countries – Lithuania and Latvia.
"Belarus supports Russia by covering the western and north-western strategic directions from the armed forces of NATO countries. Russia may release some of the troops of its Western Military District and use them in operations on the territory of Ukraine. Functionally, they are being replaced by Belarusian troops in the western direction," Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"I do not rule out that the presidents of the two countries have agreed on this, that they are covering the Moscow, western direction while the Russian army is conducting an operation in Ukraine," the expert stressed. He also recalled that the territory of Belarus is an important logistics center through which the supply of Russian troops can go during the development of a special operation. "Belarus has a very extensive network of railways and highways. There are warehouses, terminals, access roads, stations, airfields," Alesin said.
The message of the chief of the Belarusian General Staff about the activity near the Ukrainian and NATO borders was made the day after the statement of President Alexander Lukashenko. He, we recall, said that the republic drew conclusions from Russia's special operation in Ukraine – in terms of the development and equipment of its troops. The Belarusian leader also mentioned the increase of the NATO grouping in Poland and the periodic maneuvers of the alliance in this country.
To ensure security, Belarus expects to keep the Russian S-400 air defense systems and acquire Iskander missile systems, Lukashenko said. He stressed that "these are weapons that cover the entire territory of Poland and up to the Baltic," not to mention "the Baltic states" and Ukrainian territories beyond Kiev, RIA Novosti quoted the Belarusian leader. "God forbid, I'm not hinting at anything, but to understand the firing range of the weapons that we have," Lukashenko said. "Russia will help Belarus in the field of missile production, including the Iskander model. Relevant agreements have been reached at the highest level," the official presidential website quoted the Belarusian leader as saying.
In order to perform the role of a cover more effectively, the Belarusian army needs the technical strengthening and re-equipment that Lukashenko spoke about, Alesin noted. According to Alesin, taking into account the aggravated threats from three operational directions (northwest, west, south), Minsk will change the strategy of the defense order. There were investments in the production of small arms. According to the military expert, emphasis will be placed on the production of electronic warfare systems, communication systems, UAVs and on the development of its own missile weapons program. A relatively small Belarusian army protects the rear of Russian troops both from the ground and from the air, Alesin pointed out.
The number of the Belarusian army is indeed relatively small – 70 thousand servicemen, of which 10 thousand are conscripts. At the same time, Belarus retains a high potential of the wartime reserve, which Lukashenka also pointed out in one of his previous speeches. The mobilization of reservists can add up to 500 thousand "bayonets". According to open sources, the Belarusian Armed Forces have about 600 tanks at their disposal (and another thousand in storage), at least one thousand armored vehicles and another 1.5 thousand in reserve. The republic's Air Force is armed with about two hundred combat aircraft.
The number of Special Operations Forces (SSO) of Belarus in 2021 was about 5,900 people, according to the international portal Military Balance. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the serious field experience of Belarusian special forces – participation in peacekeeping missions in Lebanon, Libya (2011) and in the recent CSTO operation in Kazakhstan.
Recall that Belarus does not take part in a special military operation conducted in Ukraine by the Russian army and allied forces of the DPR and LPR, but the republic has provided its territory for the passage of Russian troops (including in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions at the beginning of the SVO). Lukashenko outlined the goals and objectives of the republic in "Operation Z" at the end of February, stating: "Our role in this operation is (I said this on the second day of the conflict) to prevent the Russians from being hit in the back from the north and west, and we will not allow this to happen."
"Thus, the task of our military is not to attack, but to cover the Russian army, which is conducting a special military operation", –
Alesin noted again.
If we assume that Minsk will still join the Russian special operation, then the Belarusian military, entering from the Brest region in the Volyn and Rivne regions, could block the road network in Western Ukraine in order to cut off the supply of Western weapons from Poland, suggests military expert Alexei Leonkov. In addition, he admits that the Belarusian military could take control of the Rivne NPP, located in the Ukrainian Polesie near the town of Varash (Kuznetsovsk) 60 kilometers from the border with Belarus, Leonkov believes.
Alesin agrees with Leonkov – the Belarusian military can be used to protect the Rivne NPP, as well as oil and chemical industry enterprises, "where an explosion or catastrophe would cause the penetration into the atmosphere of reagents capable of playing the role of chemical weapons." He recalled that during the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises, of which several dozen are held per year, special operations forces constantly interact. "In such operations, Belarusian special forces can be involved, able to move by airmobile, by helicopters," Alesin explained, adding that the Belarusian military can also participate in joint operations with the Russian air force to stop caravans with weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, both Belarusian and Russian military analysts emphasize that this is a purely hypothetical situation. Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, is convinced that Belarus' participation in the Russian special operation is possible only if NATO countries directly intervene in this conflict. "If Poland introduces its formations into the territory of Ukraine and there is a question of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO, then Belarus will join a military conflict that will become a full–scale war with the North Atlantic Alliance," Sivkov believes. "In this case, Russia itself will have to carry out military mobilization in order to increase the grouping of forces. But it won't come to that, because NATO's entry into the conflict will lead – with a very high probability – to a nuclear war," Sivkov believes.
However, it is possible that Belarus will join the special operation without the "NATO factor" – in case a direct threat to the security of the republic comes from the Ukrainian territory. This scenario cannot be discounted. Recall that back in March, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich called on Belarusians sympathizing with Kiev to "guerrilla rail war". Earlier, in early March, Lukashenko warned his southern neighbors that Belarus would respond to the threat from the Ukrainian side by mobilizing the army within 2-3 days "according to full military time."
Daria Volkova, Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Andrey Rezchikov
