A recent summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports on another UAV "Bayraktar TB2" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, shot down near the island of Snake. We are, apparently, facing another attempt by Ukraine to regain control of Zmeiny after the catastrophic losses suffered by the APU in this area in recent days. What exactly happened here?
Snake Island is 20 hectares of rocky land opposite the Romanian city of Sulima, 140 kilometers from Odessa. There was a Ukrainian military garrison here until February 24 – a border outpost, an air defense observation post and a marine infantry unit, about a hundred people in total.
As a result, 82 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered after the warning fire of Russian ships. A small garrison of the Russian army is located on the island. And it was on him from May 7 to May 9 that the forces of the Ukrainian and air and sea landings were thrown to recapture this little-known island before the special operation.
In reality, this tiny piece of rock is strategically important. In particular, from the island, it is possible to control the sea trade routes passing here, as well as the advance of warships coming from Romania, a NATO country through which foreign arms supplies to Ukraine are carried out. Again, there is the possibility of controlling the air situation in this region – NATO navigation equipment was based on the Snake, designed, among other things, to correct American Tomahawk cruise missiles. To some extent, the Snake is the key to both the possibility of landing on Odessa and to control the entire northwestern part of the Black Sea.
The Russian army began to use Snake Island, apparently, precisely as an observation post, without placing heavy weapons systems, Bal and Bastion missile systems, S-400 air defense systems on it. It's even difficult to hide them there on windswept open plateaus. It is also not possible to consider the island as a springboard for an offensive. Nevertheless, Ukraine has made a desperate attempt to attack this particular island.
"Snake Island has become another outright disgrace during the special operation, first of all, for President Zelensky," political analyst Alexander Zimovsky told the VZGLYAD newspaper. – He "buried" Ukrainian border guards there, to whom he managed to award posthumously, and they turned out to be alive, because they wisely surrendered. Zmeiny became a huge failed fake in the history of Ukrainian propaganda, and this was the reason for the attempt to return him.
The operation was not planned in Kiev, first of all, the British special services had a hand in it, who saw the island as a "weak link" of the Russian army. A strategic mistake – no one was going to hand over the Snake just like that, and large forces of the Black Sea Fleet and the Air Force of the VKS were involved here, which demonstrated the ability to resist the enemy even in remote directions."
Sources in the Russian law enforcement agencies also reported about the British special services. There is information, in particular, that Zelensky personally gave the order to attack the Snake Island and demanded to achieve a "media result" by May 9. According to already confirmed information, Valery Zaluzhny and his General Staff were against this suicidal operation, the plan of which was suggested to Zelensky by his British advisers. The finale of this action was supposed to be a joint statement on the so-called help of British Prime Minister Johnson and Zelensky. But in the end, only Johnson spoke yesterday, without mentioning a word about the disaster of the operation to storm the Snake."
Today, it is already possible to assume how events developed – both from open sources and from leaks to anonymous telegram channels. Ukraine has formed an amphibious assault group consisting of dozens of aircraft, and, above all, those very Bayraktar TB2 UAVs. Their actions were covered by helicopters of the naval aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. The landing party landed on the last remaining Centaur boats of the Ukrainian Navy. Most likely, the Russian garrison on the island at that moment was minimal or completely absent.
The result of the AFU operation to capture the island of Zmeiny is known from the official reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Ukraine lost 14 planes and helicopters, 30 drones and three boats with troops on board. There are reasonable assumptions that, as a result, Ukraine has lost more "Bayraktars" in the last few days near Zmeiny than during the rest of the special operation.
The estimate of the number of Ukrainian servicemen killed varies, but it is possible to calculate approximately. Armored boats "Centaur" are able to take on board up to 30 people landing. Probably, a boat of the Gyurza project was also involved, or, as reported, it was a corvette – a missile boat of the 1241 project, which was destroyed near Odessa, since there were only two Centaurs in the Navy. Plus three Mi-8 helicopters, each of which can accommodate 20 people. All shot down or sunk – this is a minus of about 150 people. The colossal cost of defeat when trying to capture a tiny island.
The recipe for victory of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation does not report, but with some probability it can be reconstructed. Most likely, the Russian military assumed – or had accurate information – that the APU would strike at Zmeiny on May 9. The direction of the strike was also generally clear. Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft had to be constantly in the air in order to notice the advance of Ukrainian assault groups and aviation in time. Groups of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were supposed to be in readiness mode at airfields in the Crimea.
Among the losses are not only the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. You can find references to the fact that former officers of the armed forces of the United States and Britain were part of the Ukrainian landing force that tried to land on Zmeiny. Whether this is true or not is not known for certain, but there is no doubt that at least NATO advisers participated in the planning of the operation. If only because the attempt to capture the island had a great symbolic aspect.
"Kiev needed a loud victorious operation on the most festive day for Russia on May 9," retired captain of the 1st rank Sergei Grachev told the newspaper VZGLYAD. – In Mariupol, as well as in the Donbass as a whole, it was not possible to conduct such an operation, so they chose a small island in the Black Sea for the attack. There was a minimum of the Russian contingent and means of defense – it would seem to be easy prey in military terms, especially since part of the garrison from the island of Zmeiny was withdrawn as unnecessary. Two circumstances were not taken into account: the presence of the Russian fleet and the heroism of Russian soldiers.
The nature of the losses of the Ukrainian army suggests that it was the naval forces and means of defeating the enemy that were used. They worked on aviation and surface ships even on distant approaches, and fighters from the Black Sea Fleet joined in, which promptly blocked any actions of Ukrainian helicopters and aircraft. It was a show spanking."
Undoubtedly, the constant strikes that Russia has been carrying out with long-range missiles on Odessa and the surrounding areas in recent days have a direct bearing on what is happening around the island of Zmeiny. Warehouses with military equipment, including Bayraktars, are being destroyed. In other words, everything is being done so that Ukraine no longer even thinks of trying to repeat the attack on Snake Island again.
Victor Sokirko
