Moscow has changed the balance of power on the Azov and Black Seas
The transfer of Berdyansk, Mariupol and other port cities on the coast of the Sea of Azov under the control of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Russian Federation will have an impact on the overall balance of forces in the entire Black Sea basin. Accordingly, long-term plans for the development of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy should be adjusted, taking into account the losses incurred during the special military operation.
The situation developing in the area northeast of the Crimean peninsula was discussed in the Kremlin on April 21 at a meeting of the President and the Minister of Defense of Russia. The main point of Sergei Shoigu's report was the statement about the complete taking of control of the second largest city of the DPR – Mariupol.
The city is considered a strategically important industrial and transport hub. He suffered a lot during the fighting. Only 10-20% of the urban development remained untouched. Up to 70% of the housing stock is completely or partially destroyed. Thanks to the humanitarian corridors opened by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation every day since March 21, the Russian military managed to evacuate almost 143 thousand people. Those who remain in the city receive food and basic necessities from the DPR authorities and the Russian army. Many of the buildings suitable for further use have been damaged, requiring repair. The only thing that pleases is the fact that most of the residents remained alive, expressing a desire to rebuild the city.
Area of concentration
Since 2014, Kiev has purposefully turned Mariupol into a powerful fortified area. In fact, all the territories of the Donetsk region captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine were controlled from here.
Stocks of missiles, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, and food for long-term warfare were created here. Together with the militants of the nationalist battalion "Azov" (banned in the Russian Federation) For eight years, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been preparing a springboard in Mariupol for a war not only against the Donetsk People's Republic, but also hostile actions against the Russian Federation. This activity was explained by the proximity of the major cities of the Southern Federal District, including its capital – Rostov-on-Don.
It is located 165 km from Mariupol, which gave the APU the opportunity to launch air strikes with unmanned aerial vehicles of the Bayraktar-TB2 type of Turkish development (range – up to 300 km). UAVs of this type were preparing to fly from several airfields, including the former Mariupol International Airport.
Located 5 km from the city limits, the facility has not accepted civil aircraft since the summer of 2014. Instead, a prison with torture chambers for prisoners from Donetsk and Lugansk was equipped in its premises, work was carried out to ensure the combat operation of attack helicopters and drones. The misuse of the airport continued until March 18, when it was finally taken under control by the advancing units of the Russian army.
Only 102 km separate Mariupol and Taganrog. This Russian city is located within the firing range of the Tochka-U tactical missile system (up to 120 km). The analytical center "Institute for the Study of War", stationed in Washington, in its research, cites data on the presence of up to 90 launchers of the Tochka/Tochka-U complexes and 700-900 missiles of the 9M79 family to them.
In late March and early April, the Ukrainian military repeatedly fired at Russian territory from various sites near Mariupol. Several of the 9M79–1 missiles they fired were intercepted by air defense systems. However, even in such cases, objects on the ground were damaged by shrapnel and damaging elements of the cluster head of the projectile destroyed in the air.
Closer to the second half of March, the batteries of "Dots" moved deep into the Ukrainian territory. From there, they are shelling settlements on the coast of the Sea of Azov, including Berdyansk and the environs of Mariupol. A pair of missiles were fired at a field hospital of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation located near the line of contact. The APU also uses multiple rocket launchers, including the 300-mm "Smerch", the arsenal of which has recently been replenished with correctable projectiles developed in Ukraine. For precise guidance on the final section of the trajectory, American components for the Partiot air defense systems and HIMARS MLRS are used for them.
The nationalists did not limit themselves to aviation and missile complexes alone. The proximity to the borders of Russia prompted the AFU to concentrate in Mariupol a large number of heavy weapons of the ground forces, including about 180 armored vehicles and 170 artillery barrels. Among the latter there are extended-range systems. Stationed in Mariupol, they were used by the AFU gunners to shell Russian territory. In particular, the radar survey posts located near the village of Dolzhanskaya, about 47 km to the southeast.
In short, a springboard was being created in Mariupol for subsequent anti-Russian actions. Therefore, when planning a special military operation, the command of the Russian Armed Forces assigned a special place to the speedy liberation of the city from the nationalist militants who had settled there. In fact, the capture of Mariupol was the main task of the first stage of the SVO, along with the infliction of powerful fire damage to the main objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, such as airfields, protected command posts and storages of equipment, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, locations of military units, etc.
Offensive vector
Acting according to the general plan of the Russian command, the Crimean group entered the Kherson region, from there – into Zaporozhye, taking possession of the cities of Energodar, Melitopol, Primorsk and Berdyansk. The latter received large landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet for unloading, which delivered equipment, equipment and ammunition for the marines to the theater of military operations. The events developed so rapidly that the Ukrainian rocket men "missed" the moment of unloading and fired at the port after much of what was delivered by sea was ashore.
The blow of the Crimean group and its rapid advance from the south-eastern direction to Mariupol came as a surprise to the AFU command. It was not possible to organize counterattacks by the units of the Ukrainian army located in the Zaporozhye region, and they switched to defense on the Zaporozhye–Gulyai-Pole line.
The advancing Russian army joined forces with the DPR People's militia corps advancing from Novoazovsk. In the last days of February, the garrison in Mariupol was blocked, and at the beginning of March it was surrounded. All that the "Azovites" managed to do was to mine the main objects of the city infrastructure and the fairway, block the seaport with floating cranes and take hostage the crews of foreign ships anchored here.
Defeated on the outskirts of the city, the nationalists decided to give a decisive battle in its construction, using the population as a human shield. Almost all residential buildings were turned into long-term firing points. Armored vehicles and artillery were installed on the ground floors, and snipers were stationed on the upper floors, separate detachments with anti-tank missile systems operated. "All residents were gathered on the middle floors and in the basements, turning them into a human shield. They were kept both on the middle floors and in the basements. It was actually in every house," Sergei Shoigu noted.
The report of the Minister of Defense contains specific figures. "At the time of the encirclement on March 11, the total number of the AFU group and nationalist formations, as well as foreign mercenaries, which were also enough, amounted to more than 8,100 people. During the liberation of the city, more than 4,000 were destroyed, 1,478 surrendered, and the remaining group – more than 2,000 – was blocked in the industrial zone of the Azovstal plant.
Note that the figure 8100 refers to professional military personnel, including the Azov battalion and foreign mercenaries. According to some experts, in fact, the number of armed fighters fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was more, about 11-13 thousand. After all, the garrison was joined by nationalist-minded border guards, police and intelligence officers, as well as personnel of naval bases from the coast of the Sea of Azov. Retreating, individual fighters of units and subunits defeated on the territory of the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions, as well as territorial defense detachments formed there, came to the city.
Donetsk militia and marines of the Black Sea Fleet bore the brunt of the fighting for Mariupol. Together with them, units and subunits of the Ground Forces and the Rosgvardiya, including those formed on the territory of the Chechen Republic, operated. They knocked out the nationalists from all the objects occupied by them, with the exception of a limited area of the industrial zone of the Azovstal plant. His assault was deemed inappropriate and canceled for the sake of saving the lives of our soldiers and officers.
"Today, the whole of Mariupol is under the control of the Russian army and the People's militia of the Donetsk People's Republic, and the territory of the Azovstal plant with the remnants of nationalists and foreign mercenaries is securely blocked. Currently, the situation in the city is calm, it allows us to start restoring order, returning the population and establishing a peaceful life," Sergei Shoigu stated.
Direction of impact
The liberation of Mariupol releases the units of the Ground Forces and Marines involved here. After taking a break, soldiers and officers will be involved in other areas. According to the Deputy commander of the Central Military District (CVO) of Russia, Major General Rustam Minnekaev, the second stage of the special operation has begun. "Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation (it has already begun, literally two days ago), one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbass and Southern Ukraine," said Major General Rustam Minnekaev.
The West is trying to prevent the Russian military by significantly increasing financial and military assistance to Kiev. According to retired US Army Colonel Doug McGregor, "pumping Ukraine with ammunition and money" will not bring the desired result. "I can say with confidence that some of the weapons that we are sending will end up with those who we would never want to see them with." He did not agree with the statement of the head of the White House that additional military assistance to Kiev is necessary. "In his recent speech, President Biden is trying to create the illusion that all this will change the outcome of the battle. It won't change. What is happening now is the total destruction of the best forces of Ukraine in the eastern part of the country. No one is able to change this, especially us," Doug McGregor is sure.
The former commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Vladimir Shamanov believes that during the first stage of its military infrastructure, Ukraine suffered significant damage, and the country was left without centralized state and military administration. He expressed the opinion that during the second stage of the special operation, tasks will be solved to destroy "the AFU grouping between the Dnieper and Izyum, which is already, in essence, surrounded and located in the cauldron," as well as the liberation of Odessa. According to Vladimir Anatolyevich, now there is progress in the Nikolaev area, and "Odessa, like appendicitis, is blocked...the queue, I think, will reach it."
Apparently, the words about "advancing in the area of Nikolaev" reflect reports about taking control of the Yagorlyk landfill, the reserve of the same name and the Kinburna Spit in the southwest of the Kherson region. Thus, the situation for the AFU is changing for the worse not only in the Mykolaiv region, but also in the entire area between Mykolaiv and Odessa.
Flagship issue
The loss of major port cities will deprive the Kiev regime of access to the Black Sea, and at the same time put a final end to the plans of the United States and Great Britain to have their own naval bases on Ukrainian territory. Such a development of events raises the question of the expediency of Russia to maintain large fleet forces on the Black Sea. The death of the Guards missile cruiser "Moscow" on April 14 while being towed to the port after the detonation of ammunition and a fire on board certainly affected the combat power of the surface component of the Black Sea Fleet, which is already not too large in number.
According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on April 22, 396 crew members of the flagship were evacuated, 27 were missing, one serviceman was killed. The farewell to senior midshipman Ivan Vakhrushev took place in Sevastopol, Governor Razvozhaev said. Vakhrushev directed the actions of his subordinates during the fire, brought the sailors out of the fire, then went down to shut down the boiler room, but did not have time to get out.
What will be the new flagship of the Black Sea Fleet? They may be the same type of Project 1164 cruiser Marshal Ustinov, which recently underwent factory repairs in Severodvinsk at the Zvezdochka CSR. Assigned to the Northern Fleet, together with its other ships, it is currently in the waters of the Mediterranean Sea. Since the cruiser was built at the 61 Communard factory in Nikolaev, it, according to the text of the Montreux Convention (1936 on the regime of the Black Sea Straits), can be passed by Turkey through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. However, a number of experts doubt such a need. Armed with the Vulkan anti-ship complex with missiles with a range of 700-1000 km, the cruiser with a total displacement of almost 12 thousand tons does not meet the tasks that are being solved by the Black Sea Fleet today.
As the events in Ukraine show, frigates, corvettes and submarines carrying 3M14 cruise missiles of the Kalibr complex are the most in demand among the entire ship composition of the Black Sea Fleet. Meanwhile, the cruisers of the 1164 project were designed to combat enemy aircraft carrier formations, which is not so important in the Black Sea since ships of this class do not appear in the region. Probably, the search for a suitable ship for flagship functions should be conducted among more modern types, better protected from enemy mines and anti-ship missiles. And, if necessary, capable of launching a missile strike at targets on the shore and deep into enemy territory.
Vladimir Karnozov
