Western countries will leave Russia without civil aviation
The new Tupolev-214 passenger liners will be delivered to airlines from 2024, and more than 70 units of finished products will be shipped within six years. If this April promise of industrialists comes true, the domestic aviation industry will provide real practical support to the air transport industry. It will help her to survive difficult times and at the same time prevent the disruption of the center's aviation communication with peripheral areas, as well as the most important international routes.
In the long term, until 2030, the implementation of the project to resume the production of the Tu-214 will play a decisive role, pushing all other civilian programs into the background in importance. In the entire current (without "paper" projects) product line of the domestic aviation industry, the Tu-214 is the only type of mainline passenger liner that (unlike the MS–21 and Superjet) does not have foreign components and at the same time is not inferior in fuel efficiency (like the Il-96–300) to the bulk of aircraft in the fleet of foreign carriers. The aircraft is certified, tested in operation, and its production can be carried out at a pace determined only by our own resources, regardless of supplies from abroad.
Opening a meeting on the development of air transportation and aircraft industry on March 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded "to adjust the strategy for the development of the aviation industry based on its own resources and taking into account new conditions." The reason for such work was "inadequate decisions of Western countries."
Putin outlined the situation in the following words: "A month ago, European and American companies unilaterally refused to fulfill their obligations under contracts with aviation and service companies from Russia. In fact, they deceived Russian partners by stopping the supply, leasing, maintenance and insurance of aircraft. In addition, the airspace of European countries was closed to our aircraft. I suggest proceeding from the fact that there will be no previous interaction with former partners in the near future."
In short, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) will have to radically revise the plans adopted before February 24 this year, in the direction of a significant increase in the production of civil aircraft. For this, it will be necessary, together with the Ministry of Defense, to redraw the state order at the Kazan aircraft factory, where the Tu-214 is assembled, and at Ulyanovsk, where the Tu-204 was made, in order to maximize the use of the released production and human resources.
The national civil aviation fleet has 1,367 aircraft, of which less than 900 are mainline. Speaking at a meeting of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, Transport Minister Vitaly Saveliev said that 78 of this number were arrested abroad at the claims of Western lessors, and about 800 were hastily transferred from foreign jurisdictions to the Russian register. The trouble is that the domestic fleet of mainline aircraft consists almost entirely of imported equipment. Rare exceptions only confirm the rule. Passenger transportation continues only a few copies of the Yak-40/42, whereas over the past decade all Tu-134, Tu-154, Il-86 and Il-96 have been decommissioned.
To comply with the requirements of foreign leasing companies means the complete disbandment of the existing fleet. Therefore, it was decided to transfer foreign aircraft to the Russian registration en masse. And also about the continuation of settlements under contracts previously signed with lessors from unfriendly countries in the national currency – rubles. If the proposed approach is not adopted, Western counterparties find themselves in a difficult financial situation that threatens to break cash payments and, as a result, bankruptcy.
Realizing the perniciousness of the requirements for Russian air carriers, in April the European Union softened its position a little. Brussels has allowed the transfer of aircraft under financial lease to Russia after full payment of the remaining cost. The peculiarity of this form of payment is that the airline purchases the aircraft in installments. Part of the cost is paid at the delivery stage, the remainder is paid in monthly installments.
Savelyev estimated the volume of the buyout at $20 billion. Airlines do not have such a sum, and they can no longer get loans from Western banks – it is prohibited. Brussels probably expects Moscow to agree with the proposed formula and find the necessary funds. In theory, the calculation can be carried out by reducing Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves frozen in the West. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov officially announced their size – $ 300 billion.
However, the purchase of Western aircraft will not give us an acceptable solution. We will not receive manufacturer's guarantees about uninterrupted operation. The network of repair plants and technical bases deployed in the country does not completely cover all types of major repairs. In short, the purchased "airbuses" and "Boeing" can, after flying a little, become a joke due to the lack of qualified repairs and spare parts.
Brussels' April offer is a trick. This is evidenced by the events of April 11, when the EU blacklisted 21 Russian airlines (in fact, all major ones, out of a total of 111). Thus, they are finally denied access to the airspace of Western Europe. The explanation is given as follows. "This reflects serious doubts that the forcibly re-registration of foreign-owned aircraft, with their transfer to the Russian register, will affect flight safety, since they are conducted without appropriate certificates of airworthiness, in violation of international civil aviation standards."
The head of the EU transport section claims that "hundreds" of Russian aircraft flying without certificates pose an "immediate security threat." "At the same time, I ask for a clear understanding: our decision is not another sanction against Russia, but was made entirely on the basis of the requirements for technology and safety of its use. We don't mix security with politics," Adina–Ioana Vel'ean said. It is difficult to agree, because the most malicious "violators" in the EU blacklist (117 names) are selected according to indicators not of accident rate, but of geopolitical expediency. There are Persian Iran Air and Iran Aseman Airlines, North Korean Air Koryo, Venezuelan Avior Airlines, Iraqi Iraqi Airways…
In fact, since the beginning of the century, Russian airlines have demonstrated high safety indicators. This merit was also noted abroad: international leasing companies were willing to cooperate for a long time, and insurers offered favorable rates. Last year, transportation reached 111 million people, 60% more than in 2020, but 15% less than before the pandemic in 2019. Savelyev's expectations for the current year: 90 million on domestic transportation and up to 10 on international lines, provided that Turkey, the UAE and other "tourist" countries continue to receive our vacationers. We still have a solvent demand for transportation, as well as serviceable aircraft.
According to experts, modern types of Airbus A350 (earlier this year Aeroflot received the 7th), A320NEO (up to 50 from Aeroflot, Siberia, Ural Airlines and Smartavia) and Boeing 737MAX (units) will leave the active fleet first. It will be extremely difficult to find, buy and insert a new unit (and in aviation they are all numbered) into the place of the failed aircraft without the consent of the developer, since all this is done through a centralized logistics system.
Rapid progress in computerization has led to the creation of on-board complexes with integrated diagnostic systems and automatic data exchange with the manufacturer's servers online. It is impossible to disable them, the transmission of information (including the marking of blocks) will go whenever the aircraft is preparing for takeoff.
Here it is appropriate to draw parallels with the fifth-generation F-35 fighters. Without the permission of the Americans, the aircraft's software is not updated, and flight programs are not stored in the onboard computer's memory. This is done with the expectation of cases of falling to the enemy or the desire of the exploiting country to use the aircraft against a third force, which the White House considers friendly. Israel categorically refused to take the F-35 in standard factory configuration. Based on the special relationship with the United States, he was the only one of the foreign partners in the program allowed to install his own avionics complex.
The previous generation of airliners, represented by the A320/CEO, A330, B737NG and B777, also has built-in diagnostic systems, but they can usually work autonomously. However, the address-reporting system of aviation communication AOSAS (English Airborne Communications Addressing and Reporting System, ACARS) has been implemented in civil aviation since 1978, using digital processors and radio equipment for transmitting short messages between aircraft and ground stations. So "bookmarks" and other "surprises" are possible even on older types.
Serious difficulties are expected in the wide-body A330/350 and B777 powerplants: all heavy forms of maintenance are performed by manufacturing companies in the USA (General Electric, Pratt & Whitney) and the UK (Rolls-Royce), as well as their certified centers in Asia. With a medium-haul fleet, it's easier: some kind of support for the very popular CFM56 series of engines (A320/CEO, B737NG) is available at the technical centers of Siberia Airlines and the aviation industry. Certain types of components for it were manufactured in Rybinsk, and stands for testing engines after replacement of parts were deployed here.
It is easier to organize long-term operation under sanctions for old American types. Western carriers send B747 and B767 to rest, spare parts are easy to find in warehouses of used equipment, something to remove from decommissioned samples. Then carry out the restoration repair on their own.
Despite the expected drop in GNP by 10-13%, the current year promises to bring airlines a good income. And then… Forecasts for a couple of years ahead vary greatly depending on the development of the situation around Ukraine. However, the experts who give them agree that the incomes of the population will become lower, and the fleet of imported equipment will become much thinner. Until the serial construction of the remotorized Superjet (with PD-8 instead of SAM.146) and MS-21–310 (with PD-14 instead of PW1400G) unfolds, only the release of new Tu-214, careful attitude to the existing fleet and restoration of the airworthiness of domestic aircraft from storage bases can support the air transport system.
Vladimir Karnozov
