Ankara is maneuvering between Brussels and Moscow
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's statement that Ankara sees no problems in the continuation of tourist traffic from Russia, including visits by Russian businessmen, is based on Ankara's pragmatism. Such an approach in the context of a series of sanctions is in itself very favorable for Russia. However, the possible aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, where our peacekeepers are stationed, may change Turkey's desire to maintain the status quo with respect to Russia, due, among other things, to the commercial benefits of the expected tourist boom in the summer season and Ankara's new role as a gas distribution hub for Europe.
Besides, Turkey is trying to play on two fronts today. At the same time, both Washington and Moscow have certain levers so that Ankara acts cautiously. When Cavusoglu notes that Turkey does not violate UN sanctions against Russia, he simultaneously makes a curtsy towards Moscow. And if Washington can influence Turkey with sanctions methods, then Moscow, in addition to sanctions, has a more effective mechanism to restrain Turkey's bellicose rhetoric.
Having reinforced the 5th Mediterranean Squadron of the Russian Navy in advance with cruisers whose home ports are the bases of the Northern and Pacific Fleets, in the circumstances of the presence of NATO aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea, Moscow loses nothing from the Turks blocking the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits for "warring Russia and Ukraine". Moscow has already done everything that was necessary, namely the relocation of large amphibious ships of the Northern and Baltic fleets to the Black Sea. It is important that Ankara complies with the Montreux Convention in relation to warships of non-Black Sea powers, the total tonnage of which should not exceed 45 thousand tons.
Surprisingly, today the presence of NATO ships in the Black Sea is limited to the ships of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey itself, which try not to go to sea outside their own harbors. In this sense, the discovery of a stray mine by the Turks is very beneficial to Ankara, which has restricted navigation for its own fishermen, and at the same time has shown the world that it cares about the lives of its military sailors and sailors of NATO countries. It turns out that the mining of water areas by underwater saboteurs of the special operations forces of Ukraine gave the Turks an excuse to close the straits for NATO ships, which, in the opinion of the Ukrainian media, distraught by their own propaganda, were already going to help the Kiev regime. And this is certainly the first positive signal for us.
There are indeed three NATO aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean today. The cruising range of nuclear aircraft carriers - the American USS Harry S. Truman of the US Navy and the French Charles de Gaulle - is not limited. And the Italian aircraft carrier Cavour, which joined them, has a cruising range of up to 7 thousand nautical miles. Technically, these ships can pass through the straits into the Black Sea.
Together with the aircraft carriers, there are numerous combat guard ships in the Mediterranean Sea. NATO forces use them on the principle of rotation: bases, including Neopolitan, Sicilian and Cretan, are located nearby.
In short, NATO has a large naval grouping in the Mediterranean. But will the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance decide to send them through the straits, especially if Ankara does not neutralize all possible threats, including non-anchored stray mines? It is unlikely that the Turks will take such risks.
In addition, the presence of two Russian missile cruisers of Project 1164, including the Marshal Ustinov of the Northern Fleet and the Varyag of the Pacific Fleet, clearly sobers not only the Turks, but also the sailors of the three navies that are members of NATO, from short-sighted actions. At least because they have P-1000 missiles on board, better known as the "Volcano".
The main tasks of the ships of project 1164 are considered to give combat stability to the fleet forces in remote areas of the seas and oceans and the destruction of enemy surface ships, including aircraft carriers. "Volcanoes" are capable of delivering crushing blows to enemy ship groups. At the same time, the cruisers of this project solve the tasks of collective air defense of formations and convoys in remote areas of the seas and oceans, the fight against submarines, and support for landings. They can cover the coast occupied by the enemy with fire.
The P-1000 rocket has a cigar-shaped shape with a triangular folding wing. The engine air intake is located under the fuselage. The mass of the rocket structure has been reduced compared to its predecessor (the Basalt rocket) in order to increase the fuel reserve. The case is made using titanium alloys, that is, the strength is not reduced. The increased fuel reserve with the unchanged dimensions of the rocket increased its range from 700 to 1000 km. The starting mass of the "Volcano" is 8 tons. The flight speed at altitude reaches Mach 2.5, at the surface – Mach 2. The warhead can be either high-explosive-cumulative with an explosive mass of 500 kg, or a nuclear power of 350 kilotons, which is equal to the explosion force of 15 Hiroshima. The control system is inertial with radar correlation.
The flight scheme of the P-1000 Vulcan rocket is combined. The rocket overcomes most of the trajectory at a high altitude, descends near the target, passing the remaining distance at an ultra-low altitude (15-20 m), which allows it to escape from enemy radars. The duration of the low-altitude section can be increased due to fuel reserves. This makes the missile less vulnerable to long-range anti-aircraft missile systems of the enemy.
About the fight against Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are equipped with NATO ships. They were shot down by anti-aircraft missile systems of the Syrian Arab Army operating as part of the country's unified air defense system. These systems are coupled with the Russian ones located at the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus.
The actions of fighter-interceptors from air bases in Latakia can be carried out in close coordination with the grouping of the Russian Navy. Together, all these forces are able to stop the threat posed by cruise missiles on US Navy ships. So far, NATO is behaving carefully and prudently, seeing what forces are gathered in the Mediterranean. But how events will develop further depends largely on the outcome of Russia's special operation in Ukraine.
Vladimir Yeranosyan
Vladimir Maksimovich Yeranosyan is a military expert, captain of the 1st rank.