Image source: topwar.ru
BDK "Saratov burns after an explosion in Berdyansk, March 24, 2022
The city of Berdyansk was liberated by Russian troops very quickly and almost without resistance. By the end of February 28, everything was over, there were no Ukrainian troops left in the city, only some pro-Kiev activists continued to organize anti-Russian pickets right in front of the units of the Rosgvardiya, knowing full well that nothing would happen to them for this.
In the second half of March, when the front had already moved away from the city, the port began to be used for its intended purpose – from those amphibious ships of the Navy that had previously portrayed the threat of a naval landing in Odessa, preventing the enemy from removing reserves from there and throwing them to Kherson or north of Nikolaev, they began unloading military equipment needed in the Mariupol direction.
On March 21, RT released several beautiful videos about unloading ships in the port, and those telegram channels that first posted them at home reported that Ukrainian troops had already tried to launch a missile strike at the port more than once, but Russian air defense systems repelled these attacks, which made it possible to use the port for military purposes.
And then came March 24.
Incident
Unfortunately, the Ministry of Defense has not yet mentioned what is happening, as if nothing had happened, which again (again here is the key word) made it possible for Ukrainian psychological operations units to form a global, worldwide picture of what happened, apparently, as usual, false in whole or in part, but, alas, the only one that exists.
The Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation cannot understand the simple fact that if you do not attack in the information field, then the enemy does it, if you do not give photos and videos, then the enemy does it, if you are silent, then the enemy speaks, and everything that he can extract from his nobody he will extract an uncontested dominance in the news and social networks. He will get more help for himself, he will lure more foreign mercenaries and volunteers into the country, it will be easier to attract his citizens to the troops during mobilization, and so on.
Up to the strategic consequences – if someone had brought to the majority of Finns pictures with the art of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas, they would not be asking to join NATO now. But nothing has really been brought to them, and they may well join there, which, of course, is very good for our country.
The information war is like that.
The incident in the port of Berdyansk is a typical example, and it will be explained below why.
And now – the details.
On the morning of March 24, 2022, photos and videos with strong smoke and flames began to arrive from Berdyansk street webcams over the pier where the BDK was being unloaded.
In the future, there were a lot of these photos and videos, they went through telegram channels and, in principle, part of the picture that can be understood based on the image, you can restore some events.
So, the cameras show us that an explosion occurred on board the Saratov Project 1171 BDK (two cranes on the deck allow us to identify it unambiguously), the photo below.
Image source: topwar.ru
At the same time, at the time of the explosion, two other BDK, project 775, were nearby, which urgently began going to sea. Video. It can be seen that on one of the outgoing BDK there is also a fire on the deck, at the artillery installation.
The ship at the pier was quickly extinguished.
After a while, the American media distributed a photo of the port of Berdyansk from the Maxar satellite.
Image source: topwar.ru
The following is clearly visible – the burning Saratov is standing in the same place. The photo shows that our BDK is flooded. There are no other BDK nearby, but the fire continues, and its hearth is not on the ship, it has already been extinguished by this time, it is burning somewhere near the fuel tanks, and there is also smoke from the dry cargo ship Rusen mete under the flag of Sierra Leone, standing at a distance.
By the way, he is still there, as evidenced by the recent (March 29) photos from the Sentinel 2 satellite.
Image source: topwar.ru
Photo taken from the telegram channel "Colonelcassad"
And on March 30, a photo appeared without smoke, which clearly shows that the ship is flooded and, apparently, lies on the ground.
Image source: topwar.ru
These are the facts, and now the estimates.
Versions of what happened
First – versions. In the absence of information from the native Ministry of Defense, you will have to rewrite the Internet.
The main version is the strike of the Ukrainian OTR "Tochka-U" with a cluster warhead, which for some reason was missed by our air defense.
Speculation about the fact that the missile of the Tochka complex was too far to fly should be discarded – the Russian Federation does not have so many troops to control everything, the enemy could simply reach the launch line inside the formally controlled territory of the Russian Federation, the launcher is mobile, can move off the roads.
On a "special military operation", anything happens, the air defense can really be broken through. Yes, and Ukraine struck at the port, there is a video of such a strike on the link, just at another time.
But then it does not explain why there was only one explosion – if a cluster warhead was used, there would be many of them.
There is a video of how it all started, and it doesn't look like a missile strike.
Another version of what happened is the impact of the multiple launch rocket system of the Ukrainian troops, but here, too, the question arises about the dissimilarity of everything that happened to the consequences of such an attack, besides, it would be very difficult for the MLRS to be at the launch distance.
The problem of range could be solved by the SD MLRS "Vilkha", which can be launched from one hundred and twenty (the planned second modification - from two hundred) kilometers, and the force of the explosion would just be about the same as seen in the photo. But – again, it doesn't look like a missile strike, if you start from the video.
A version of the explosion on board the BDK was announced, which was in no way connected with the strike from the AFU – according to the version, ammunition was unloaded from the ship, an explosion occurred due to a safety violation or for another reason, burning fragments of the BDK cargo scattered by the shock wave caused a fire on the second BDK and a fuel tank on the shore.
But then why was the cargo ship smoking? Why was he standing there on March 29, five days later? It was too far away for a fire or explosion on board the BDK to set something on fire on a cargo ship.
Another version is the sabotage of the Ukrainian special forces, possibly with the use of mini-drones carrying explosives. Then everything is explained – they hit the BDK, another one, a tank with fuel and, within the framework of typical Ukrainian ethics, also a civilian vessel, so that they knew that it was dangerous to stand next to the Russians. One intact Russian BDK can be explained by the fact that for some reason the drone did not fly, for example, due to a breakdown, or was detected and shot down in time, or the explosive device did not work when it hit the ship.
This version contains the least amount of contradictions, if we start from the known facts. If we assume that there are also unknowns, then the principle "it is clear that nothing is clear" works. Let's wait, however, what the Ministry of Defense will give out, this is not a tank blown up on a mine, which can then be included in the statistics, this is a ship with a crew of dozens of people, the fact of its "disappearance" from the Navy's combat personnel can be hidden from the Russians only by turning off the Internet in Russia – and in general it is impossible in principle globally. And it's worth mentioning the losses somehow, if there are any.
There is no data on how many soldiers died during the incident and whether anyone died at all.
In social networks, completely different versions are voiced, at the maximum – many dozens of dead. In principle, everything is possible, all options are real, from zero to dozens.
And there is also no exact data on the damage caused to the ship. Most likely, Saratov will still be written off, otherwise it will be extremely surprising, but, again, this is a guess based on the available photos and videos - and nothing more. Usually, of course, ships don't survive after this.
So we can only wait. The Defense Ministry has to say something sooner or later. They can't always pretend that nothing happened.
I should also mention the news about the funeral of three sailors from the Novocherkassk BDK in Sevastopol. Immediately after the incident, it was said about three dead on this BDK that went to sea (the one on which the artillery installation was on fire), but, to tell the truth, we do not know if there were other dead sailors there, not from Sevastopol. So far, nothing is known about this either.
Effects
The fact that the ship was lost and people died is understandable, but it doesn't come down to that. An important consequence, not even of the incident itself, but of its persistent silence, is the repetition of the effect that was achieved when the information troops of Ukraine with hundreds or thousands of servicemen, with the help of the West and well-established methods for fooling people, were opposed to a daily briefing by Major General Konashenkov lasting several minutes. Namely, the "drain" of the information confrontation to the enemy.
From the point of view of ordinary people, especially non–Russian ones, the picture looks like this – there is a fact of the ship's defeat, there is a fire, the fact that the ship is no longer moving after the incident, there is, satellite photos with water on top of the deck (at least, it seems so when viewed) - there is. There are rumors about dozens of dead and the loss of the ship. And the official reaction from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation? And she's not.
That is, a foreign citizen is in a situation where an event takes place (there is no doubt that there was an incident), there is an explanation from the Ukrainian side (even if there are different explanations) and ignoring from the Russian side.
And this means – attention – that, from the point of view of an outside observer, the information about the events from the Ukrainian side somehow corresponds to the actually observed facts, whereas the Russian one is disconnected from reality in principle.
The next time the Ukrainians broadcast a fake picture with reference to the actual events taking place, and the Russians will again pretend that nothing is happening, a foreign layman will believe the Ukrainians, Ukrainian too, and some Russian citizens may accept the opponent's point of view.
Let's give an example – in Ukrainian and Western social networks and public there is a lot of information about the breakthrough of Russian troops to Krivoy Rog, and that the recently repulsed counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops (the pogrom of their forces by our artillery and aircraft when trying to approach the Russian troops) was an unsuccessful attempt to strike the flank of the group advanced to Krivoy Rog, and not just a failed throw to Kherson.
And in the briefings of Major General Konashenkov, there are no troops at all near Krivoy Rog. Not in the sense that the Ministry of Defense denies their presence there, no, they are simply not mentioned.
What if tomorrow Ukrainians start producing fakes about the outrages of Russian troops near Krivoy Rog? Or will they arrange a provocation with chemical weapons there? After all, in the reality broadcast by the Ministry of Defense there are no troops at all, they are not mentioned anywhere. Will we keep silent again?
Russian Russians did not confirm that they were there, the Ukrainians showed it, the fact of fighting is there, but the Russians did not confirm that they were there, but what if the enemy publishes some data of objective control means, for example, American satellite photos of our troops, and again the same situation will turn out as with the BDK - the fact of the presence of troops is there, but the Russians did not confirm that they were there, the Ukrainians showed it, the fact of fighting is there, but the Russians did not they talked about it, the Ukrainians reported it, and now the Ukrainians reported the third fact – the chemical attack, and the fourth – that it was Russian.
Will the Western man in the street doubt the fidelity of the fourth fact, if the first three were exactly correct, and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation did not even mention them? It's simple, after all.
The situation with the BDK has already been discussed on a lot of Western platforms – from Twitter to various forums, our Ministry of Defense does not comment on it at all, which, of course, increases confidence in the information that comes from it – otherwise how?
Those who speak English know that outside of the Russian Federation, an iron, indestructible conviction of the masses has been formed that Russia is on the verge of military defeat in Ukraine, that its losses are huge, that its army is an empty place, the losses of Ukrainians are much less than those of Russians. The residents of Ukraine have the same opinion.
And this is in conditions when Ukraine itself is actually on the verge of defeat, and its losses are much greater than ours, in an optimistic version for them – at times, and most likely, dozens!
How did this become possible? How can there be such a gap with reality in the minds? And so – if the infield is given to the enemy, then he occupies it, and the story of the BDK is the clearest example. And the conviction of Ukraine's victory and mobilization for itself simplifies, strengthens the will of the population to resist and stimulates the influx of foreign fighters. If they knew how real it is there, maybe they wouldn't have gone, but they are here and will shoot at our soldiers.
What prevented during the briefing just to take and say that:
Was it that hard? Everyone understands that our troops are not at the resort there, anything happens, the enemy always has the right to make a move. Our arrivals have been and will be. But instead they did, as always. Despite the fact that no one has ever bothered to do everything wisely either.
But, in addition to the informational component of the event, there is also a purely military one.
A few hurtful questions
I really wanted to postpone all the disassembly until the moment when everything is over, and the new laws hint at the need to be silent. But to pretend that everything is fine, it does not work endlessly, although they want it very much from us. Therefore, just a few questions to the command, without explanation.
Why were the webcams not turned off in Berdyansk? This is one of the most important intelligence tools these days, everyone knows about it. Why were journalists allowed to enter the port through which the equipment is being delivered? Or, alternatively, why were they allowed to publish the video before the last BDK left Berdyansk?
Why did the unloading of the BDK take place during the day?
Why, instead of the correct "raid-port-raid" scheme, when a ship enters the port from the raid only for quick unloading and immediately leaves, three BDK were brought into the port at once, moored nearby and quietly stood there (a quick exit to the sea of a pair of 775 suggests that at this moment they were not unloaded – and stood at the pier)? How does all this comply with the requirements of the Navy regulations and (in the case of cameras) counterintelligence?
Who is to blame for all this? Is this person or these people punished, or has our "system learned to forgive"?
The last question and the answer to it are important for society, and our Ministry of Defense must answer the rest by itself, not publicly, but necessarily. And draw conclusions for the future.
This special military operation is our most important war (let's call a spade a spade) after the Great Patriotic War. And the most difficult. And we have the strongest and most dangerous enemy since the Great Patriotic War. This is a struggle for our survival.
And there simply can be no place for any kind of relaxation or carelessness, incompetence or misunderstanding by senior officers of what they are doing - the existence of Russia is at stake, and not even the state of the Russian Federation, but Russia in principle, as a historical phenomenon. Defeat will mean that she will be gone.
There are objectively no prerequisites for such a defeat, whatever one may say, but Ukraine is in bad shape, and only external intervention can save the Kiev regime.
But subjectively, it is quite possible to create prerequisites for defeat by driving whole detachments of ships into the frontline port during the day under the included cameras used by the enemy with special forces and tactical missiles. And then, during the information support of a special military operation, pretending that nothing happened. Even when this "nothing" has already been seen by the whole world.
On the 30th day of a special military operation, it would be possible not to do so. On the 35th, too. This opponent cannot defeat us if we don't "help" him. But it is necessary not to help.
And finally, especially for the Ministry of Defense – the Internet exists, and people say, and this cannot be changed, even by amendments to laws. And even if everyone is silent, it does not mean at all that no one understands or knows anything.
P. S.
While the material was being prepared for release, the Ukrainian Mi-24 struck an oil depot in Belgorod. The tank farm from the point of view of the Ukrainian command, apparently, looks quite a logical goal. Alas, according to their old tradition, they also fired at the printing house. What did the printing house do to them? It's good that no one died there.
This time, the Department of Information and Mass Communications reacted, to quote Major General I. E. Konashenkov:
I want to emphasize that only civil transport was supplied with fuel from this facility. The oil depot has nothing to do with the Russian armed forces."
And that's it, the issue from the point of view of information warfare is simply closed. True, it took a long time to wait, the whole day, but it's good that DIMK MO still did not do as with Berdyansk. But if the Ministry of Defense had remained silent again, it is difficult to imagine what the Ukrainian psychological operations units would have inflated out of all this.
And so they flew by, the propaganda effect will be zero. After all, our people understand everything.
Sometimes you just have to say it out loud.