NATO has announced a "transformation" involving a significant increase in the alliance's troops in Eastern Europe. Experts are confident that NATO's reforms will fundamentally reshape the security architecture in Europe and involve Russia and the West in a new arms race. How will Moscow respond to the historic reform of NATO? Does the alliance's initiative mean the risk of a direct clash with Russia?
NATO is developing plans to deploy permanent full-scale armed forces on the eastern borders with Russia, Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with The Telegraph. According to him, the alliance has entered the stage of "fundamental transformation" because of what is happening now in Ukraine.
As part of a large–scale "reset", the relatively small presence of troops on the eastern flank will be replaced by full-fledged military forces sufficient to repel the attempt of a "Russian invasion" in such alliance member states as Estonia and Latvia.
Stoltenberg noted that at present, 40,000 troops are already under his direct command in the eastern part of the alliance – almost ten times more than at the end of last year.
"What we see now is a new reality, a new norm for European security. Therefore, we asked our commanders to provide options for long-term adaptation of NATO to changing conditions. I expect that the leaders of the NATO countries will make decisions on this issue when they meet in Madrid at the alliance summit in June," the Secretary General said.
It is worth noting that by this time the Finnish authorities will make a decision on the country's application for membership in NATO.
Also on Sunday, joint exercises of engineering troops "Engineering Thunder – 2022" with the United States began in Lithuania at the training ground in Pabrad, RIA Novosti quotes a message from the press service of the Lithuanian army.
"The main purpose of the exercises is to fulfill the tasks of engineering support for maneuvering units during military operations and to improve the interaction of units," the report says.
Two days earlier, the NATO Secretary General announced the strengthening of support for the alliance's partners, including Georgia, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. Reacting to this, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said: this shows that the actions of the North Atlantic Alliance are aggressive, not defensive.
On the same day, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss said that the Russia–NATO Founding Act of 1997 does not meet the current situation in the world, its days are over.
The minister believes that now it is necessary to "rebuild the international security architecture", since it is impossible "to work within the framework of outdated agreements with Russia, which it frankly ignores and undermines."
"NATO forces are already being built up near the borders of Russia in the Baltic States – these are four groups, each with a little more than a thousand people with tanks, artillery, and reconnaissance means. In addition, the alliance is preparing to deepen cooperation with nominally neutral Finland and Sweden," corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Russian Federation Alexander Bartosh told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
In his opinion, as part of the "reset", serious tank formations and artillery will be pulled to the northern borders of NATO.
"Now we are even working on the transfer of American aircraft carriers to the Baltic on a permanent basis," the expert added.
Also, as part of the "transformation" directed against Russia, the alliance last week decided to create a Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA). "It will be a network of about 10 sites for the creation of new military assets. In general, we see that NATO is moving to a different format of ensuring security," Bartosz points out.
Thus, the United States creates greater cohesion of the "diverse" NATO members against the background of the alliance's institutional crisis. "Washington understands that a Russian attack on any member of the alliance is practically impossible, since it will entail a direct military clash of the nuclear level. Washington needs to strengthen the influence in Europe of the union in which the United States itself occupies a dominant position. In addition, the United States creates a reason for more active financial participation of the European members of the alliance," the analyst believes.
Another goal of the American side, which initiated the "transformation" of the alliance, is a large utilization of the military capacities of the US military-industrial complex.
"As a response, Russia is unlikely to transfer a large-scale contingent to the north-western borders, most likely it will be limited to additional means of missile defense and air defense, as well as aviation forces. Here, the main tool of Russia should be diplomacy, so as not to be drawn into the arms race imposed on us by the North Atlantic Alliance, which is clearly designed for many years," Bartosz stressed.
The arms race is considered by NATO and the United States as an intermediate goal, the West does not exclude the reality of a military clash with Russia, Konstantin Sivkov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, objects. "Now NATO has 40 thousand troops on their eastern borders. I am sure that this grouping will be increased quantitatively at least four times, and the upper limit allowed by the leadership of the alliance, I think, is at the level of a million military," the expert said.
In his opinion, Russia will need to fundamentally strengthen its northwestern contingent of troops in response to this. "In order not to weaken the other flanks of a potential NATO attack, Russia will have to increase the military budget by one and a half, if not twice, and accordingly increase the number of Armed Forces," the source is sure.
In general, he pointed out, the planned reforms of NATO will fundamentally reshape the security architecture in Europe. "I think this so–called announced "reset" of NATO also includes working out ways to block a nuclear response from Russia in the event of a conflict," Sivkov said.
NATO has no plans to attack, but allows for a sharp emergence of an uncontrolled escalation of a military nature with Russia, according to Vasily Kashin, an expert at the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies.
"I think, in the case of the "reset", we are talking about the permanent deployment of all alliance formations in Eastern Europe that have been present there on a rotational basis until now.
This will really give the alliance an operational advantage over Russia in the event of an unexpected crisis.",
– the analyst pointed out.
At the same time, he agrees that the "reset" of the alliance will lead to a mutual increase in military spending, and a very significant one. "NATO will not be able to simply take and leave the military units currently present in Eastern Europe. This will require the construction of new infrastructure, I think even full–fledged bases will be built," the analyst explained.
Russia will also be forced to increase the contingent at the borders, the number of air defense systems, deploy new control systems and weapons, Kashin added.
"Of course, this "reset" of NATO suggests that Russia, Europe and the United States are waiting for a long-term and significant increase in military spending. Apparently, the NATO member countries will greatly change the budget structures for future years. However, we do not have to respond strictly symmetrically – Russia will look for asymmetric responses to the strengthening of the alliance at the borders of the Russian Federation," the expert concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
