Russia has named the planes on which Russians will fly after the resource of foreign Boeing and Airbus is exhausted. In addition to the Sukhoi Superjet-100, these will be long-haul Tu-214 and Il-96. Why were these planes chosen, will Russia be able to produce them, and why have they been uninteresting to Russian airlines so far?
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) will produce 20 Tu-214 passenger aircraft and increase the production rate of long-haul Il-96 and military transport Il-76. This was told by the head of the UAC Yuri Slyusar.
Interest in the urgent resumption of serial production of passenger Tu-214 and Il-96 appeared due to Western sanctions. The EU banned leasing and deliveries of aircraft and engines to Russia and demanded the return of even those aircraft that are currently operated by Russian airlines and pay leasing payments. The owners of such cars are foreign lessors. The EU has also banned insurance of Russian aircraft. Boeing and Airbus have stopped servicing Russian airlines' aircraft and banned the supply of spare parts to them.
According to the Ministry of Transport, foreign lessors demanded that Russian companies return 500 aircraft with a residual value of $ 20 billion. Russia did not return foreign cars, especially since this technically cannot be done due to the mutual closure of the sky between the EU and Russia. However, Russian airlines have faced arrests of foreign aircraft at foreign airports at the request of European lessors. According to the Ministry of Transport, Russia "lost" 78 aircraft in this way.
Moscow is gradually solving the problems that have arisen. Firstly, foreign cars began to be re-registered in the Russian register. Secondly, the government has allowed airlines to pay lessors in rubles, because it is difficult to make payments in another currency without flights abroad and the absence of foreign currency earnings.
Foreign planes now fly mainly to domestic destinations. 148 domestic Sukhoi Superjet-100 machines plus 45 more foreign aircraft, which are owned by Russian airlines and registered in the Rosreestr, were "thrown" on international flights. In total, a fleet of 193 aircraft was formed for flights abroad. From April 9, Russia will resume air service with 52 friendly countries. In particular, restrictions on charter flights introduced earlier due to the spread of coronavirus to Venezuela, Hong Kong, Kenya, Ethiopia and a number of other states will be lifted.
How long Russia can use the rest of the foreign aircraft that are leased, even on domestic flights, is not completely clear. It depends on whether the airlines will find all the necessary spare parts for repairs of airliners.
In any case, Russia is clearly preparing for the fact that soon Russian airlines will need a fleet consisting not of Boeings and Airbases, but of domestically produced cars.
If we have a regional car, the SSJ–100, then we have not yet managed to launch a domestic replacement for long-haul Boeing and Airbus aircraft, the MS–21 aircraft. This airliner promises to surpass foreign competitors in its flight performance and comfort. But it will be able to be launched into the series only in 2024, according to official statements. And this is provided that the manufacturer will be able to import all that is necessary. Although the MS-21 was originally created with a minimal share of imports, unlike, for example, the SSJ-100.
In such conditions, Russia has no choice but to turn its attention to technically obsolete domestic liners with the PS-90A engine – the mainline narrow-body Tu-214 and wide-body Il-96, designed back in the 1980s.
It is curious that in 2014, the IL-96 was finally withdrawn from the Aeroflot fleet, but in 2022-2023, most likely, it will become desirable for many Russian carriers.
Why did Russia abandon domestic airliners in favor of foreign cars? It's all about economic feasibility.
"Previously, our aircraft competed with foreign cars, which had somewhat better flight characteristics and a more attractive price, as they came to us from the secondary market. However, now the situation is radically different. Planes of domestic origin have no alternative if we are talking about flights not "today", but "tomorrow". Therefore, any shortcomings that affect the economy, but do not affect flight safety, they can be forgiven.",
– says the head of the "Airport" Oleg Panteleev.
The expert compares the Tu-214 and the MS-21. "The Tu-214 is heavier by 30 tons, has worse aerodynamics, a cabin with three rather than two crew members, a lower degree of automation of routine crew procedures. It is less comfortable for passengers and has a higher cost per flight hour and is generally more expensive to operate than the MS-21. But the main advantage of the Tu-214 today is that the first planes may appear at airlines earlier than the fully import–substituted MS-21, and it can fly from Moscow to Khabarovsk," says Panteleev.
The Russian aviation industry cannot boast of producing 300-600 aircraft per year, like Boeing or Airbus. The number of aircraft produced in Russia is simply lost against this background. In 2019, Russian factories produced six aircraft, in 2020 – 12, and in 2021 (in nine months) – 14 SSJ-100 aircraft.
"However, in previous years, the production of the Tu-214 and IL-96 was limited more by demand than by production capabilities along the entire chain from component manufacturers to final assembly and testing," says the aviation expert. Airlines were not interested in these planes, which were losing economic competition with foreign cars.
Although there is a precedent when the Ilyushin Finance leasing company ordered the production of the Tu-204 in the interests of the Red Wings airline. In 2007-2008, it was possible to produce one aircraft per month, or 10-12 aircraft per year.
"This, of course, is also not too much against the background of the capabilities of our foreign competitors, but it speaks about the possibilities of reaching the same production rates of the Tu-214 in Kazan. The components of the Tu-204 and Tu-214 are overwhelmingly completely identical. Cooperation should allow us to reach the required production volumes. Although we cannot now assess the condition of all component suppliers along the entire chain. We hope that they have not lost their competencies, but have only increased," says Oleg Panteleev.
As for the IL-96, the state was engaged in it long before February 2022 – even after the first Western sanctions in 2014-2015.
Back in 2017, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated more than 53 billion rubles for the construction of one experimental machine in an updated form with modern onboard and navigation equipment. The customers included the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. The Voronezh Joint-Stock Aircraft Building Company (VASO) is engaged in the issue. Apparently, the IL-96 was a safety option in case the West refused to supply us with its equipment, and now Russia intends to use it. In July 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that the production of the new Il-96 has been completed, and three more cars are in production in Voronezh. According to him, VASO is provided with orders for 10 years ahead in the interests of the special flight detachment "Russia".
"VASO's capabilities are enough to make more than two planes a year. There are no critical bottlenecks in the IL-96 program. I think that within two or three years it will be possible to increase the production of airliners to four per year. It will be necessary to hire an additional number of production workers," Panteleev believes.
He points out that in order to build a large number of aircraft, it is necessary to conclude contracts for metal, engines, avionics, the production cycle of which also takes time. In the past, the aircraft production cycle from ordering materials to handing over to customers required 12-14 months, perhaps the process can be accelerated. But the planes that were put into production this year are likely to enter service no earlier than 2023. It is possible that three Il-96s, which were already produced at VASO in July 2021, will be ready to work in the sky earlier.
Both Tu-214 and IL-96 can be used by Russian airlines on both domestic and international lines.
"So far we have enough foreign planes to fly inside the country. But if the resources of foreign cars are exhausted for servicing domestic destinations, then, most likely, the main purpose of the Tu-214 and Il-96 will be to replace foreign cars on domestic lines and to ensure connectivity of Russian regions.",
- Panteleev thinks.
As for the IL-76, it is a heavy military transport aircraft, which is produced in Ulyanovsk at Aviastar. A special production line was created for its serial production, which accelerates the assembly of aircraft. The first aircraft on this line has already been assembled. Its capacity is designed to produce up to 18 aircraft per year. Last year, the task was to bring the collection to 10 aircraft per year.
"The main investments in the expansion of production were made earlier. Nothing prevents Aviastar from producing more aircraft from the point of view of the plant's capabilities," the interlocutor concludes.
Olga Samofalova
