The special operation hit the external aviation relations of Ukraine
At the international arms exhibition World Defense Show 2022, which took place from March 6 to 9 in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), the Ukrainian export company "Spetstechnoexport" (part of the state concern "Ukroboronprom") presented at its stand a short catalog of military products offered for export of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, as well as technical services that defense companies can provide to their foreign customers. The catalog is aimed at more than 30 countries that are partners of Ukroboronprom, and offers foreign customers to take advantage of the opportunities of more than 100 state and more than 70 private enterprises, as well as 60 research centers and design bureaus that are part of the defense complex of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian stand looked lonely, since the dates of the exhibition coincided with the holding of a special military operation (SVO) of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. And the results of this operation can dramatically affect the implementation of plans not only for the construction of new Ukrainian aircraft, but also for the maintenance and repair (MRO) of Antonov aircraft, the supply of engines, other products and components, which until recently the Ukroboronprom Group sold on the foreign market. Take, for example, the AN-178, AN-74TK-200A, AN-140, AN-148 and AN-158 aircraft, for the serial construction of which money has never been enough. Even before the start of the SVO, the Ukrainian aviation industry was in a "supine" state. The main military airfields and industrial facilities of Ukraine are being hit by Russian high-precision weapons during their military operations. In the area of the Antonov airfield in Gostomel, clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops began from the first day. During the fighting, the world's largest Ukrainian transport aircraft An-225 "Mriya" was destroyed. The Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant, which serviced MiG-29 combat aircraft of Kazakhstan, Zerbaijan, Bangladesh and Sudan, was destroyed by high-precision weapons strikes.
Aircraft of the An brand are widely used by military operators around the world, and engines manufactured by the Zaporozhye Motor Sich company are used on many thousands of aircraft of different classes. According to Janes Markets Forecast dated February 28, for military aircraft programs excluding Russia and Ukraine, the potential market for Ukroboronprom Group of Companies in the period from 2021 to 2031 was estimated at about $710 million before the conflict. This figure mainly includes services to support the existing fleet of military aircraft manufactured by Antonov and contract work on MRO, in particular the fleet of Mi-17 helicopters in service with the Bangladesh Air Force. This estimated market value also includes ongoing upgrades to the AN-32 fleet of the Indian Air Force and IL-78 tanker transport aircraft of the Pakistan Air Force. Janes Inventory data show that, with the exception of Russia and Ukraine, there are about 300 military aircraft of the An type in service, including special-purpose variants. About 63% of these aircraft are operated by the armed forces in Asia, including a number of AN-2 aircraft, which were modified by Azerbaijan into attack unmanned aerial vehicles during the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the fall of 2020.
Russia is still the largest operator of AN-class transport aircraft. Its fleet includes more than 300 aircraft, ranging from the AN-2 and AN-26 to the later AN-140 and AN-148. Since 2014, Russia has been looking for alternative sources to support the airworthiness of AN-type aircraft and the production of aircraft platforms to replace them. In addition, the search is underway for ways to replace the existing Ukrainian engines, which are equipped with a number of Russian aircraft and military helicopters, including medium-sized Mi and Ka helicopters, Yak-130 training aircraft (TCB), Be-200 amphibious aircraft, An-124 and An-148 transport aircraft.
In addition to Russia, light, medium and heavy military transport aircraft of the AN type are widely used in Asia, and more than 100 AN-32 twin-engine tactical military transport aircraft are operated in India. Most of these aircraft are more than 30 years old, some of them are being upgraded, others need to be replaced or will soon go out of service. The current situation in Ukraine will only accelerate their replacement and write-off.
Currently, there is no export order from military operators for the AN-178, the only new twin-engine military aircraft of the An type of the middle class. Antonov's attempts to establish partnerships for the joint production of AN-132 military airliners with Saudi Arabia, and then the AN-132D maritime patrol aircraft with Turkey failed.
In November 2021, NATO extended the program for the temporary use of AN-124 aircraft for strategic military transport SALIS (Strategic Air Lift International Solution). It provides air transportation of oversized cargo to nine countries of the alliance, while under the contract up to five AN-124 aircraft can be available when ordered within a few days. As reported on March 9 by the Jane's Information and analytical center from London, other aircraft, including the AN-22, AN-225 and IL-76, can be mobilized by NATO as needed under the SALIS program. However, during the battle in Gastomel, the only copy of the An-225 "Mriya" burned down, other aircraft based there were damaged. Obviously, its impact will affect the availability of AN aircraft for the SALIS program, although Antonov Logistics subsidiary SALIS GmbH is based at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany.
The AN-178 aircraft with a payload capacity of 18 tons was originally intended to replace the AN-12, AN-26 and AN-32 aircraft in service with the Ukrainian Air Force, but was also considered as a possible competitive device in the international market of medium-duty aircraft.
The interest in this aircraft was reported by the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan and Peru, but this did not lead to the conclusion of contracts. So far, only civilian or law enforcement agencies have ordered AN-178. Nevertheless, the situation in Ukraine has also jeopardized existing orders for AN-178, for example, for the National Police of Peru. The aircraft under construction for Peru was at the final assembly stage at the Kiev aircraft factory before the start of its construction.
The Ukrainian industry also worked on the modernization of various types of aircraft building. The Indian Air Force, for example, is upgrading its fleet of approximately 104 AN-32 tactical transport aircraft to the AN-32RE standard to extend their service life and provide new avionics, a modern crew cabin, as well as noise and vibration reduction.
The program started in 2009, but stalled in 2014 after the first 35-40 aircraft were upgraded in Ukraine, because after the coup d'etat Moscow refused to transfer various avionics to Kiev to equip these aircraft. The implementation of ITS will definitely affect this program as well.
After the modernization of the first Il-78 tanker transport aircraft in Russia, Pakistan turned to the Ukroboronprom Group with a request to modernize the second Il-78. A contract worth $30 million. In June 2020, it also included the possibility of upgrading the two remaining aircraft in service with the Pakistan Air Force.
The first aircraft upgraded by Ukraine was returned to Pakistan in early 2022. The option for the remaining two aircraft is unlikely to be implemented at this stage. In this regard, Pakistan may start looking for alternative modernization options or decide not to upgrade the last two IL-78s and instead proceed to replace them.
Ukraine is also a supplier of engines for military aircraft and helicopters. The Motor Sich company until recently supplied AI-222–25F engines for the Chinese L-15 combat training aircraft of the Honda company.
The improved L-15/JL-10 training aircraft is equipped with the Ivchenko-Progress AI-222K-25F turbofan engine and is in service with the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLA), the PLA Navy and the Zambian Air Force, and Chinese operators continue to receive new aircraft.
It is unclear how the conflict will affect the recently signed deal between the Ministry of Defense of the United Arab Emirates and the China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation) for the purchase of 12 L-15 aircraft for the UAE Air Force and air Defense with a possible option to purchase 36 more units.
It is quite obvious that China produces engines known as WS15 Emei and can independently supply these engines to export customers. It is known that China is testing a locally developed engine for its JL-10 TCB, although initially this powerplant is likely to be used only for domestic aircraft.
The single-engine basic TCB and light attack aircraft of HAIC Corporation and the Pakistani K-8 Karakorum-8 aviation Complex (Karakorum-8) can be equipped with the Ivchenko-Progress AI-25TLK turbofan engine or similar Chinese-made WS11 engines. Some aircraft, such as the K-8E, which are in service with the Egyptian Air Force, use American TFE731 Honeywell engines, provided that the United States allows the export of these engines.
According to the Jane's Information and Analytical Center, the Bangladesh Air Force operates K-8W aircraft with Ukrainian engines. The first batch of nine aircraft was delivered in 2014, and in June 2018 it was reported that the Bangladesh Air Force signed an agreement with China for an additional 23 K-8W TCB, some of which will be used for an aerobatic air group. Of the second order, six or seven aircraft were delivered at the end of 2020. It is unclear how the current situation will affect the delivery of the remaining aircraft. Ukrainian engines are also used, in particular, in Russian heavy transport helicopters Mi-26 and obsolete TCB L-39 "Aero Vodochody" (Aero Vodochody L-39), which are mainly operated in Asia and Africa.
In 2016, Russia started developing the PD-12V engine, a variant of the PD-14 turbofan engine of Aviadvigatel. This engine is designed for the Mi-26T2 helicopter, which uses two upgraded Ukrainian Ivchenko-Progress D-136–2 engines. Initial flight tests of a heavy helicopter with a new engine are scheduled to begin in 2023, and permission for mass production is expected in 2025. However, due to current events, this schedule may change due to additional delays. In addition to the Russian Air Force, the Mi-26T2 helicopter is in service with the Algerian Air Force.
The situation in Ukraine will affect military-technical cooperation with Turkey. Ukraine was counting on large-scale deliveries to Turkey of a whole range of aircraft engines for unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters and airplanes. However, the Turkish side will now have to make certain adjustments to certain projects. In particular, the absence of "Motor Sich" engines may affect the development by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ) of the 11-ton advanced heavy attack helicopter T929 ATAK 2, as well as the upcoming export of T-129 ATAK attack helicopters to Pakistan.
On June 29, 2021, TUSAŞ announced the signing of a contract with Motor Sich for the supply of 14 2500 hp TV3–117 turboshaft engines for the ATAK 2 program, with the first two engines to be delivered in September 2022, and the rest until 2025. The helicopter is scheduled to make its first flight in 2023.
The choice of Ukrainian engines was also connected with the need for Turkey to overcome US sanctions against exports to third countries of CTS800–4A engines produced by a joint venture between Honeywell and Rolls-Royce Light Helicopter Turbine Engine Company (LHTEC). Indeed, LHTEC engines are installed on the T129 ATAK helicopter, purchased under license from Leonardo, on the basis of which the Turkish ATAK 2 was created. Delays in obtaining export licenses for LHTEC engines have so far prevented the sale of 30 T129 helicopters to Pakistan in the amount of $ 1.5 billion, which was officially announced in 2018. This prompted Pakistan to look for other options for acquiring rotorcraft, including the Z-10ME attack helicopter of the Chinese corporation CAIC (Changhe Aircraft Industries Corporation). However, in an interview with a Pakistani private TV channel on February 18, TUSAŞ CEO Temel Kotil said that the sale of the T-129 to Pakistan has not been canceled. Instead, TUSAŞ planned to deliver 30 combat helicopters of licensed production with Ukrainian-made engines, Kotil added.
It is now unclear what alternative solution Turkey can offer Pakistan for the sale of the T129 to replace the Ukrainian engines if they are no longer available.
The ability of Ukraine to support its foreign customers in the aviation market is likely to be seriously reduced due to the ongoing SVO and the decommissioning of a number of plants of the defense complex of Ukraine. So far, the main enterprises of the Ukrainian aircraft engine industry, Motor Sich and Ivchenko-Progress, remain operational. It is unlikely that the Russian leadership has any plans to disable them, since they may well serve the new Ukraine after its demilitarization and denazification. And also to conduct mutually beneficial cooperation with the Russian aviation industry, as it was before the coup in 2014.
Nikolai Preobrazhensky
Nikolai Vasilyevich Preobrazhensky is a journalist.
