The relations of the United States with Saudi Arabia can be called one of the foundations of the existing world order and the global power of the dollar. And now we see a number of signs that these relations are under threat. The Arabs refuse to help Biden in his sanctions battle against Russia. Why did this happen?
"You can't buy an Arab. It can only be rented." This phrase, once said by Lawrence of Arabia, fully reflects the specifics of the interaction of the United States with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, and above all with the most influential of them – the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And there is a feeling that this "lease" is now ending.
Went into denial?
So, Bashar al-Assad arrived in the Emirates on a visit – once, according to the West and the Gulf, the illegitimate dictator of the Syrian regime. Now he is quite a respectable president of Syria, to whom the de facto ruler of the UAE, and formally Crown Prince Mohammed al-Nahyan, shook hands with a smile.
Saudi Arabia has gone even further down the anti-American path. In mid-March, it became known that Mohammed bin Salman (Crown Prince of the KSA and also the de facto ruler of his kingdom) was negotiating with the Chinese to sell them oil for yuan. It is possible that the decision on this will be announced already in May, during the planned visit of Comrade Xi to the KSA.
And if this happens– it will be a direct violation of the agreement reached between Riyadh and Washington in 1974, when the Saudis promised to sell oil exclusively in dollars, and the Americans in return gave the Desert Kingdom security guarantees. Today, almost 80% of global oil trade is in dollars, and experts regard a potential deal as a serious blow to dollar trade. After all, China buys 25% of Saudi oil and is the kingdom's largest trading partner.
Moreover, it seems that the term of the "lease" does not end at the mutual desire of the parties. Within the framework of the existing allied relations, the United States is asking the UAE and the KSA to participate in a campaign to put pressure on Russia – at least in the oil sector. According to the International Energy Agency, the world needs about 100 million barrels of oil per day. Russia produces ten, exports five and another three million oil products. The current refusals of a number of countries to buy Russian oil, according to the agency's calculations, will reduce exports by 1.5 million barrels of crude oil and one million barrels of petroleum products. This means that the Russian fallout needs to be replaced with something – otherwise there will be a shortage on the market, and Moscow will simply sell its oil to other countries.
There are not so many replacement options. Iran is ready to release 1.2 million barrels – but only after the lifting of sanctions and a number of preparatory measures, which may take up to six months. Venezuela can theoretically give more than a million – but production there is falling due to problems associated with insufficient investment in oil infrastructure. All other countries have too few reserves - all except the KSA and the UAE. Saudi Arabia can increase production by two million barrels per day, the UAE – by 1.1 million.
That is why Joseph Biden personally tried to call Riyadh and Abu Dhabi with a request to increase production – but they did not even talk to him there. Literally, both Crown Princes simply did not answer the phone.
American Violator and Abuser
However, Joseph Biden can only blame himself for this attitude. After all, it is a consequence of the mistakes that the United States made as part of its "lease" of Arab monarchies.
Thus, according to a number of experts, the United States did not fulfill its obligations under the 1974 agreement – that is, it did not guarantee the security of monarchies. And if it was somehow possible to negotiate under Trump, then with the arrival of Biden, the situation became dramatically more complicated.
"One of the first foreign policy steps of the new administration was the termination of American support for the war in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia (and the UAE – approx. VIEW) waged against the Iranian-backed Houthi movement. In addition, the movement was excluded from the list of terrorist organizations, and the supply of weapons to the KSA was suspended," writes the Wall Street Journal. And this is not to mention Biden's attempts to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, which will allow Tehran to continue nuclear research and is considered by Saudi Arabia as an existential threat to the existence of the kingdom.
And on March 11, Joe Biden awarded Qatar the status of "the main non-NATO ally" - as a sign of the emirate's allegedly long-term support for American foreign policy in the region. Neither the UAE, nor even the KSA, which has supported America all these years in the same way, has such a status! And given that both countries are in contention with Qatar, such selectivity is considered by them as an insult.
Moreover, Biden personally insulted both crown princes. So, after the January Houthi attack on facilities in Abu Dhabi (with the help of missiles and drones), Biden called Mohammed bin Zayed only three weeks later. In the UAE, this was perceived as a serious humiliation.
Mohammed bin Salman feels even more humiliated. "Since Jamal Khashoggi was lured to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 and killed there, Western leaders have tried to stay away from the kingdom and avoided photo shoots with the crown Prince," writes The Guardian. Biden was no exception – he announced a boycott of Crown Prince Mohammed in general, and did not seek a meeting with him before the current crisis.
The Crown Prince answered ignore to ignore – they say that when Biden spoke with King Salman of Saudi Arabia and asked to pass the phone to his son (who was present in the room at the time), Mohammed bin Salman refused to take it under the pretext that Biden initially requested a conversation with his father.
It is not surprising that now Mohammed bin Salman does not want to talk to Biden or agree to his request to increase oil production. After all, this build-up is detrimental to the interests of the KSA, which earns a lot of money from rising oil prices. In 2020, the net profit of the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco amounted to $ 49 billion. In 2021, this amount has grown to 110 billion. Now, against the background of current oil prices, experts predict an even greater profit growth - up to 140 billion.
Shall we talk?
Unable to personally talk to the Crown Prince, Biden sent a trusted emissary to him – in mid-March, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went to the Middle East. It was believed that Johnson, unlike Biden, had friendly relations with the Saudi Crown Prince. And not only with him. "Boris can talk to the leaders of the Gulf countries, unlike Biden, and not look like a preacher at the same time," the European edition of Politico quotes one of the British ministers. In addition to the role of envoy, Johnson wanted to strengthen Britain's position in the Middle East through the visit.
However, it did not work out - despite the "friendly relations", the visit did not go very well. So, right before Johnson's arrival, Saudi Arabia carried out the most massive execution of prisoners in many decades (81 people were executed simultaneously). "A kind of gangster demonstration of impunity with a mute question: "Well, what will you do?".
Apparently, the answer will be "nothing"," writes the British The Guardian. There was no deal either, and Johnson, in fact, returned to London empty-handed. According to Labour leader Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson "goes with his hand outstretched from dictator to dictator." And no one filed!
However, it is possible that Mohammed bin Salman is ready to submit - on his own terms. "In fact, Saudi Arabia has taken its allies hostage. Crown Prince Mohammed understands that the United States and the United Kingdom are in dire need of his oil, so he will try to extract maximum profit from this case," says Madawi al-Rashid, a British expert on the KSA.
The profit Mohammed bin Salman wants to make is obvious. The resumption of support in the Yemeni operation, taking into account the interests of the KSA during the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran, new arms sales – but the main thing, apparently, is the recognition of the status. Rejection of the tacit boycott and support for the Crown Prince's claims to the throne (the fact is that Mohammed bin Salman is not such a legitimate crown prince, so after his father's death he may have problems in the process of becoming a king).
"The Crown Prince is striving for international legitimacy, this is the essence of his current friction with the United States, which does not mean at all that Riyadh refuses a strategic alliance with Washington. Biden is now seeking efforts from him to keep the price of a barrel of oil within certain limits. The Crown Prince's goal is far-reaching and strategic, Biden's goal is temporary and tactical," writes the Middle East Institute.
A number of experts urge the current US president not to follow the lead of the Arab monarchies and force them to cooperate (including threats of sanctions and an arms embargo). However, the problem is that such an approach can lead to an even greater departure of the gulf monarchies from the West towards the East and North. In other words, towards China and Russia.
At one time, respected people in Saudi Arabia have already warned the West that any sanctions against the KSA could lead to a reorientation of the kingdom to arms purchases from Russia and China. Yes, it takes too much time and money to switch from American to Russian-Chinese weapons – but you should never underestimate the self-esteem of an Arab who has been insulted by a violation of the terms of the lease.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
