America needs more and more new ships
At the WEST 2022 conference held recently in San Diego, which addressed issues of naval construction, the chief of Naval operations of the US Navy, that is, the commander-in-chief in our opinion, Admiral Mike Gilday, told reporters that in order to fulfill their obligations under the national defense strategy, the United States Navy must have a fleet of "more than 500 ships". As the admiral explained, to be precise, we are talking about 513 floating units.
Chinese Challenge
According to Mike Gilday, this "armada" should include 12 aircraft carriers (now there are 11 of them), 9 UDC with large flight decks (currently such a number of UDC is just available in the American fleet), 19-20 amphibious transport ships-docks, 30 or more relatively small amphibious ships, up to 60 destroyers and probably 50 frigates and littoral combat ships, 70 multi-purpose attack submarines and dozens of ballistic missile submarines (SSBMS), about 100 ocean supply ships and support ships and, in the longer term, about 150 unmanned ships.
How realistic are the Pentagon's plans
To begin with, the new defense strategy of the United States, referred to by Mike Gilday, has not only not been made public, but has not yet been finalized. Therefore, the admiral seems to have run ahead of the locomotive.
The race for the "big fleet" was led by Donald Trump, who, in light of the galloping growth of the naval personnel of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA Navy), while still a candidate for the post of head of the White House, promised American sailors to bring the quantitative composition of the US Navy to 350 ships and submarines. At that time, the American fleet numbered 272 units.
After becoming president, Donald Trump, at the request of the admirals, agreed to increase this number to 355 pennants. However, when they began to calculate how much time it would take to implement this venture at the current pace of shipbuilding, it turned out that only within 30 years it would be possible to complete the program.
According to the resource of the US Naval Institute USNI News, on February 24 of this year, the American fleet included 295 units. That is, compared to 2016, it increased by 23 pennants. This growth was mainly due to the arrival of littoral combat ships (17 units), whose combat value is debatable, and the extension of the service life of 11 Ticonderoga-type cruisers previously scheduled for decommissioning. The deadlines for scrapping a number of multi-purpose submarines of the Los Angeles type were also slowed down.
But still obsolete ships and submarines have to be written off. In five years – from 2022 to 2026 inclusive - 48 units will have to be withdrawn from the US Navy due to dilapidation. These include the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Nimitz, 11 Ticonderoga-class cruisers and 13 submarines.
Reports on the state of affairs in the PLA Navy in comparison with the United States Navy are published annually in the United States. America is ahead of China in the number of aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered strategic and multi-purpose submarines and destroyers. But for destroyers, the gap is rapidly narrowing. Last year alone, the PLA Navy received three large Type 055 and four type 052DL destroyers, this year - two more type 055 and one 052DL. By the end of the year, the number of type 055 ships will be brought to eight units, and the total number of destroyers will be up to 25. All of them are equipped with automated control systems similar to Aegis and are not inferior to the American ones in terms of the nomenclature of missile weapons. The United States has twice as many SSBs. But the potential of Chinese nuclear-powered strategic submarines of type 094/094A Jin, equipped with intercontinental missiles JL-2 (Giant Wave 2 - "Giant Wave - 2"), is sufficient to cause irreparable damage to the United States.
After the modernization of the Bohai Shipyard is completed, China will be able to simultaneously build five submarines of different subclasses. The company has already begun construction of new type 096 Tang submarines (two laid, four more ordered) and multipurpose nuclear-powered type 095 Sui.
The launch of the third Chinese aircraft carrier is expected by the end of the year. The tasks assigned to the floating airfields of the PLA Navy are different from those performed by the American ones. First of all, they are designed to provide air cover for the deployment of surface and submarine ships, and not to strike at the territory of other states.
The Chinese fleet is approximately equal to the American fleet in terms of air defense of individual ships and naval formations and significantly surpasses the US Navy. The PLA Navy has long-range supersonic ship-to-ship missiles and unparalleled coastal anti-ship ballistic missiles (PKBMS) capable of hitting large surface targets at ranges from 2,100 to 3,860 km. It is known that the PLA has missiles with planning hypersonic blocks, the United States does not have such.
Big problems from a small fleet
The Russian Navy cannot compete with the US Navy in terms of the number of ships and tonnage. However, we have an unsurpassed naval strike weapon - hypersonic Zircon missiles capable of striking sea and coastal targets. As well as supersonic anti-ship missiles "Onyx" and multifunctional missile systems "Caliber", which are used by surface ships and submarines. The latter became famous in the fall of 2015, when the first precision strike was launched from the Caspian Sea against militant targets in Syria.
Secondly, we have carriers of these weapons. Launches of long-range cruise missiles at IAF facilities in the Arab Republic were mainly carried out by small MRCS of project 21631 "Buyan-M", whose displacement does not even reach a thousand tons. It is not for nothing that they are unofficially respectfully called "strategic missile boats", since the "Calibers" can be equipped with nuclear warheads. "Buyany-M" and the MRK project 22800 "Karakurt" currently arriving at the Baltic and Black Sea fleets are able to "close" the entire Western Europe. They, as well as diesel-electric submarines of project 636.3 and frigates of project 11356R/M have repeatedly confirmed the reliability of the "Calibers".
Their high potential, in particular, was confirmed during a special military operation in Ukraine. The "calibers" launched by ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet on the infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine accurately hit command posts, military bases, airfields, ammunition depots.
Thirdly, in the Russian Armed Forces, an algorithm of interaction between the types of Armed Forces has been found. When the United States, escalating the situation around Ukraine, together with NATO partners began to concentrate an entire armada in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, including three aircraft carriers, the Russian Aerospace Forces provided support to the Russian naval group. MiG-31K fighters with hypersonic missiles X-47M2 "Dagger" and Tu-22M3 bombers with anti-ship supersonic missiles X-22 and X-32, specially designed to destroy aircraft carriers, were transferred to the Khmeimim airbase. These missiles can hit targets all over the Mediterranean Sea. "The X-47M2 is one of the most combat-ready tactical missiles in the world with unsurpassed flight characteristics, including a speed of 10M and the highest maneuverability. It is believed that it is almost impossible to intercept this missile and it hits both land targets and warships with high accuracy, and its range of destruction is 2000 km," the American edition of Military Watch Magazine notes. - NATO members have no analogues of the X-47M2. Thanks to this asymmetric resource, Russia will be able to close the Mediterranean Sea to Western warships and strike at key Western hubs in the main part of Europe." Foreign media also draw attention to the fact that MiG-31K aircraft with X-47M2 missiles have been spotted in the Kaliningrad region and the Far East. They also appear in the Arctic latitudes.
By the way, this is not the first time Russia has sent MiG-31K and Tu-22M3 fighter aircraft carriers to the Khmeimim Airbase. This first happened in June last year, when the British Navy's CSG 21 carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth, tried to block Russian bases in Syria. Her Majesty's ships had to retreat.
By and large, the United States, in general, does not care about Europe and European affairs. Americans are more concerned about their own safety. And its durability is increasingly in doubt. In addition to the traditional SLBMs "Sineva", "Liner" and "Bulava", the Russians have more and more submarines with cruise missiles "Caliber" and "Zircon". In short, even a relatively small Russian Navy in terms of total displacement poses a huge problem for Washington.
Revision of programs
It is obvious that the US Navy is not able to cope with the growing threat from the military fleets of China and Russia. Therefore, the Pentagon has begun another revision of the shipbuilding program. It was carried out against the background of regular reports on the growth of the naval personnel of the PLA Navy. Thus, in the Pentagon report of September 1, 2020, "Development of the Armed Forces and security services of the People's Republic of China – 2020", it was officially recognized for the first time that the PRC has a significant advantage in the number of warships. According to the forecast of the US Congressional Research Service, in 2030, the PLA Navy will have 425 warships of the main classes, including 8 SSBMS, 13 multi-purpose submarines, 55 submarines, 65 combat surface ships of the far sea zone and 135 near. And taking into account missile boats, other pennants of small displacement and auxiliary vessels, the total number of ship personnel reaches thousands of units.
On December 9, 2020, a long-term military shipbuilding plan was published in Washington, calculated until fiscal year 2051.
It is assumed that by 2051 the Navy will consist of 406 ships of the main classes. The implementation of this plan required additional financial resources. The Pentagon was going to extract them from the internal reserves of the Navy by redistributing funds in favor of the fleet.
It was planned to increase the pace of construction of nuclear multipurpose submarines to three units per year starting from fiscal year 2025. This measure was supposed to lead to an increase in the number of multipurpose submarines from 51 units at the end of 2020 to 80 by 2051. New Constellation-type frigates should arrive at an annual rate of four units. It was supposed to significantly increase the construction of landing ships and auxiliary vessels. The American Navy was to purchase 28-30 so-called light amphibious amphibious LAW ships worth $ 100 million each.
Seven new aircraft carriers were planned to be commissioned by 2051. However, the plan did not exclude the appearance in the future of light aircraft carriers (CVL) instead of atomic monsters, for example, on the basis of universal amphibious ships of the America type.
All these proposed measures, however, did not make it possible to surpass the PLA Navy. Therefore, in the 2022-2026 financial years, it is planned to allocate allocations in the amount of $4.339 billion for the creation of large unmanned surface ships (BBNCS) and medium unmanned surface ships (SBNCS), as well as ultra-large autonomous uninhabited underwater vehicles (XLUUV). This money provided for the purchase of 12 BBNCS, one SBNC and eight super-large ANPA. And by 2045, the US Navy was supposed to have 119 units of BBNK and SBNK and 24 XLUUV. By 2051, this number should increase to 166 BBNAS and SBNAS and up to 76 units of super-large ANPA.
After coming to power, the administration of Joseph Biden put this plan under the carpet.
A report by the US Department of Defense, released on November 3 last year, claims that the PLA Navy, already the most numerous in the world, has reached the number of 355 large surface ships and submarines, that is, they have taken the "sacred frontier" designated by Donald Trump for the US Navy. Admiral Mike Gilday voiced suggestions that are worth paying attention to. It is unclear at what time the implementation of the program is scheduled. The Chief of Naval Operations carefully avoided this issue.
The number of destroyers decreased. Yes, 28 physically obsolete Arleigh Burke-type ships of the first Flight I and Flight II series will be withdrawn from the US Navy by the end of this decade. Purchases of destroyers of the Flight III and in the future Flight IV series are planned until 2041, but it seems that they will be built at a slower pace. The DDG(X) type destroyer project is still in the early stages of development, and it is unknown when they will start foaming the seas.
The decrease in the number of destroyers is partially offset by Constellation-type frigates, the start of construction of the main one of which is scheduled for April this year. So far, it is planned to purchase 20 units. Another 30 will fall on littoral combat ships, which are of little use. Compared to the previous plan, the number of multipurpose nuclear submarines is reduced by 10 units.
The situation with aircraft carriers remains unclear. Gilday is not an ardent supporter of atomic monsters. Does this mean that CVL light aircraft carriers will appear in the US Navy?
It is clear from Gilday's words that the number of unmanned warships and extra-large uninhabited underwater vehicles will be below the Esper level. But, of course, the creation of the BBNK and combat ANPA is a long-term line of development of the US Navy.
There are still a few questions that Mike Gilday bypassed. How much will it cost to implement this program, even if everything goes smoothly? Yes, for 2023, US military spending is planned at $773 billion. This is 5 billion more than this year. Military spending in the United States is constantly growing. But here's what the British directory "Seaforth World Naval Review 2022" reports: in comparable prices, US military spending in 2011-2020 decreased by 10% due to inflation. Military spending fuels inflation, and inflation eats up military spending. And it is not yet a fact that Gilday's plan will be adopted by the Joseph Biden administration.
Meanwhile, China and Russia have adopted and are implementing long-term shipbuilding programs involving new projects of ships and submarines, as well as weapons for them. In China, for example, the development of unmanned ships for various purposes is successfully progressing, and in Russia – uninhabited autonomous military vehicles. The day is not far off when Russian aviation will receive compact hypersonic anti-ship missiles. Electronic warfare and electromagnetic weapons systems are being improved. And this list can be continued. It is quite obvious that the United States is completely unable to establish its control over the seas and oceans. And no matter how many programs of world domination you build, they are doomed to failure.
Alexander Ivanin
Alexander Sergeevich Ivanin is a military journalist.
